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Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

Lady Ashe | Posted 10/12/2007 9:40:16 PM | message detail | #051
They're really not all that much more difficult outside of percentages. And they're even easier to write a lot about simply because there are more factors to consider. o.O
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/12/2007 9:42:04 PM | message detail | #052
True. Oh, maybe the fact that nearly everyone has missed a boatload of matches is affecting their morale? I love to analyze these contests whether or not my bracket is toast, but I can speak from experience that it's a bit funner when you're doing well.
transience | Posted 10/12/2007 9:42:48 PM | message detail | #053
then you can hold it over everyone's head that you're right because you have more points!!!!! hahahaha
SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/12/2007 9:52:41 PM | message detail | #054
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/12/2007 9:55:38 PM | message detail | #055
Luigi 99.99%
mudkip .01%
vergil .001%
ganondorf -.001%

i have more points than you so i must be right if you disagree with me never make a bracket again. mudkip is in second because this way i eliminate a bunch of people in the guru.

Ganondorf - 30%
Luigi - 30%
Mudkip - 22.5%
Vergil - 17.5%

Just in case nobody posts in time.
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/12/2007 9:57:05 PM | message detail | #056

Vergil doesn't go down much because of everyone else being Nintendo.
Ganondorf and Luigi split this evenly. I'll give the slight edge to Ganondorf though due to ZELDAFEAR.
Mudkip does well because GameFAQs has no taste.
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/12/2007 9:57:59 PM | message detail | #057
One of Round 2's most interesting matches coming up folks!

What was already an interesting match before the contest start in the form of Ganondorf/Luigi SFF has now been made even more interesting with the addition of 4chan's mascot Mudkipz. Unlike other joke characters (CATS, Zolom), the two Pokemon jokes seem to be taking advantage that the format gives to Pokemon and using that as a base while they power on through using 4chan's "Anon vote". Be sure to see the shenanginans happen at /v/ tonight as there's likely going to be a few members lurking about here and rallying the horde there since Mudkipz definitely has a chance to advance through here.

As I said above, the number one thing that is making this match interesting is Luigi/Ganon SFF. Ganondorf is clearly the stronger of the two, being right on the heels of Vincent and Squall. However, the question is "Can he hold up We've seen Ganondorf be on the ass end of SFF beatings before, managing to score lower on Link than CATS in 2k4. He ended up doing well against Samus in 2k5, but that's because he was against Samus, who isn't great with SFF herself. Luigi on the other hand, is a favorite from the Mario series and is looking to be the benefactor of the SFF in this match despite being the weaker of the two. Of course, the possibility of the Nintendo split favouring Ganondorf is there as well. If the SFF favours one over the other enough or if the duo both end up close to Mudkipz, you can be sure that rallying will take place and we'll be seeing Mudkipz in round 3.

Oh, and Vergil's in this match too as the winner of the Vergil/Thrall match last round. Too bad he's out of this one. Mudkip doesn't collapse over time like Bidoof.

Gaddswell Predicts:
Luigi - 28.85%
Mudkip - 23.17%
Ganondorf - 31.64%
Vergil - 16.34%
Finally a damn bracket!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/12/2007 9:58:11 PM | message detail | #058

Okay, we have three Nintendo characters and a Capcom character. Vergil won't be affected by SFF; however, he likely isn't winning this time.

The real story is Ganondorf, Luigi, and Mudkip. Ganondorf dominated his first round matchup with nearly half the vote. Luigi got first on his matchup, with Mudkip getting second. I feel that Luigi and G-dorf are the strongest here. Luigi and Ganondorf will SFF each other; if that happens to a certain extent, Mudkip may have a chance of advancing. The Zelda fanbase is probably larger than the Mario fanbase, and Link fried Mario in the first Character Battle in 2k2. (Sorry if this isn't very good; I'm new to this, so please cut me some slack.)

My Prediction:

G-dorf: 32%
Luigi: 29%
Mudkip: 25%
Vergil: 14%

"Captain Falcon tried to Falcon Punch Fox, but he pressed Z or R twice and it hit Banjo instead." - Zapp
10/11 - Bidoof Lost the GFAQS Contest
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/12/2007 9:58:33 PM | message detail | #059
kay count his.
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
transience | Posted 10/12/2007 9:59:22 PM | message detail | #060
whoa, mad analyses

I'll have to read these after the match starts!
SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
Gaddswell | Posted 10/12/2007 9:59:44 PM | message detail | #061
Whoa, looks like I got mine in just on time.
Finally a damn bracket!
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/12/2007 9:59:53 PM | message detail | #062
hey tranny search for contest stats i made a topic for you
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/12/2007 10:00:48 PM | message detail | #063
wait nevermind you already saw it
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2007 10:45:19 PM | message detail | #064
Am I going to finally call an upset that no one else takes on a match?

Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
DpObliVion | Posted 10/12/2007 11:44:28 PM | message detail | #065
Sorry, I didn't put any effort into an analysis because I was rushing to get ready to go out on this Friday night....

But I really didn't expect Vergil to get under 20% in his free-for-all Nintendo SFF. And I certainly didn't expect to come on at quarter to 2 and see ****ing Mudkip winning. Ugh....

But anyway....I think I had Ganondorf > Luigi in one bracket and Ganondorf > Vergil in another, so I was pretty split on this one. loses all credibility, blah blah blah, etc etc....

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS*
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 8:23:18 AM | message detail | #066
Crono.......36.65% 44563
Raiden......17.26% 20991
Zero...........32.64% 39680
HK-47.......13.45% 16348
TOTAL VOTES.....121582

62.89% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly.
38.85% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly.

6.66% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd.
4.12% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st.

Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 28; Half Correct - 10; Barely Correct - 2

Zero gets pretty close to Crono, but other than that not much more to say here.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Guest gets 3 points in a row!

Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty) - 8
HM - 6
Lopen - 6
Yoblazer - 6
KH - 4
Moltar - 3
Tran - 3
Ulti - 2

Crew Accuracy Challenge - KH gets the point for Crono, Guest gets the point for Zero, Moltar and Yo get points for Raiden, and Lopen gets the point for HK

HM - 30
Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "2", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "2", Bio "2", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty) - 30
Yoblazer - 28
Lopen - 22
Moltar - 20
Ulti - 19
Tran - 16
KH - 15
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Luigi/Mudkip/Ganondorf/Vergil - Bracket: Ganon > Luigi - Vote: Ganon (163/192)
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/13/2007 8:27:10 AM | message detail | #067
I'll have to write as a guest for an easier match one day.
(|| ' ' ||) Host of "Who would win in a Fight?"
Lugia2 | Posted 10/13/2007 6:53:59 PM | message detail | #068
Wow, this match was a pain. Mudkip nearly pulled one heck of an upset there.

Are we getting a guest this time? I really like those (not to say I like the others less, but they're still fun! Remember the time someone used the objection thing for the match on the Day The World Imploded?)
"If the [PSP] is such a loser... why did you buy [one]?"- Saint Waldo
"Because I am crazy. I also own three Wonderswans."- Chris Kohler
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 6:59:55 PM | message detail | #069
Yes, there's a Guest for today.
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Luigi/Mudkip/Ganondorf/Vergil - Bracket: Ganon > Luigi - Vote: Ganon (163/192)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/13/2007 8:09:09 PM | message detail | #070
Sent my e-mail dude.

Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed:
th3l3fty | Posted 10/13/2007 8:20:26 PM | message detail | #071
If these percentages keep up, it'll be four in a row for the board!
Knight of the Cross of Sir Chris' Court
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics. -Sir Chris
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 8:31:33 PM | message detail | #072
Division 5: Round 2 - Match 42 – Master Chief vs. Yuna vs. Liquid Snake vs. Alucard

Moltar’s Analysis

Round 1 – 45.69% vs. Yuna, Tommy and PaRappa

I said wow.

Round 1 – 30.18% vs. MC, Tommy and PaRappa

Honestly, it’s not too shabby.

Round 1 – 27.79% vs. Alucard, Ness and Zidane

Won with the power earned THROUGH THIS ARM

Round 1 – 27.79% vs. Liquid, Ness and Zidane

It was all a part of the plan.

Finally, another pretty exciting match to talk about. I mean, we had MC flat-out dominating, and Liquid and Alucard going at it until the very final update of the match.

Well, I’m predicting Chief takes first here. He looked monstrous in round 1, and that was on Halo 3 hype. Now that the game is out and has sold 2.00x10^32 copies, logic dictates that he should be even stronger now. Better watch out Clink!

Second is either Yuna, Alucard or Liquid. It’s kind of hard to place where all three of these characters belong thanks to Chief and Ness being horrible measuring sticks, and Zidane…just not being reliable enough. If you want to get to the most basic point though, then Chief > Ness by quite a bit. Liquid has never proven to be strong, and Alucard has looked worse and worse over the years, so they’d probably be a little over Ness in strength when dealing with the regular format, which isn’t anything to be proud of.

In this format? Who knows. Now that Chief is here, neither of them can be much better off. Yuna is stronger than them one-on-one, but how does she hold up with these new opponents? I can’t say for sure, but the odds are on her side. I think the fact that she’s just stronger will give her the edge, so I’m sticking with my bracket here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: MC > Yuna

Moltar’s Prediction is: MC: 32% - Yuna: 24% - Liquid: 22% - Alucard: 22%

Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

Given what happened in the first round, I'm pretty sure of Chief > Yuna. I *want* Alucard > Liquid for personal preference, but I doubt either are strong enough to get into second place, let alone first.

I suppose Yuna vs Chief would have been a date before the first round, but with the way Chief destroyed everyone? CHIEF > LINK CONFIRMED.

Ulti's Prediction:
Chief [33.00%]
Yuna [26.00%]
Alucard [21.00%]
Liquid [20.00%]

Heroic Mario’s Analysis


So after the release of Halo 3, can the Chief put up the crazy numbers (45% in a poll with three other characters what) for a second time? Depends on how high we’re talking here, but I’m not thinking so. For whatever reason – and I don’t have a good one! – I’m expecting to see Master Chief come back down to earth here. He’ll look good, and have first wrapped up with no problems, but his performance won’t be as ridiculous as last round, I don’t think, even with Game Fuel!

Despite a lot of people being down on Yuna, I think she’s going to be fine here. There are a lot of people talking about Liquid or Alucard having second place, but I don’t see it. Yuna’s performance last round wasn’t that bad at all. Unless you expected her to live up to the numbers she put up in last year’s female bracket (why), then her performance was about where she should be. The Master Chief we’re seeing this year isn’t the same one who lost to Sub-Zero last year, so it’s certainly not necessarily a bad thing that she wasn’t competing with him for first.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 8:32:02 PM | message detail | #073
As for Liquid and Alucard, they should end up having another close one for third. It won’t matter, but it should be entertaining to watch them go back and forth, with Liquid coming out on top. I just can’t see either one of these guys competing for second here, though. If they do, I think that’s more of Yuna’s fault than anything. I mean, these guys had a great show last round, but come on, they were barely beating Ness. There’s a world of difference between Ness and Yuna, folks!

Master Chief is who is making this match, though. What percentage he pulls in could determine how far the guy goes. I’ve got him at a good 35%, but if he’s pushing, or even exceeds, 40%? Yeah – good night. At that point, I’d be confident enough in saying the Chief would have the finals just about locked up. Brawl hype or no, it won’t matter if MC is looking that beastly.

Master Chief – 35%
Yuna – 27%
Liquid Snake – 20%
Alucard – 18%

Bracket: Master Chief > Yuna

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Despite the fact that all four of these entrants can move on, I don't really have much insight to put into this match. It's Chief, Yuna, Liquid, and Alucard in a fight to the death. One spot is guaranteed, but the other is completely up for grabs. Who'll get it? Whoever MC deceived to share his Game Fuel with, of course!

Master Chief was undoubtedly one of the stars of Round 1. In what seemed to be a middle finger directed at his infamous "Halo hate" past, the Halo star put up 45.7% against what seemed to be pretty good competition. Yuna was there, a well liked FFX character, as was Tommy Vercetti, a contest veteran of GTA fame. Yet Chief found no trouble in dominating. Yuna was supposed to keep it relatively close, but failed bigtime. As such, Chief's spot as this match's winner is guaranteed, while Yuna's spot to advance, something that at first seemed safe, is very much in jeopardy.

Her competitors are Alucard and Liquid Snake, two fan-favorites who gave us a performance for the ages in Round 1. They're of equal strength, so if one of these guys tries to eek past Yuna, you know it'll be one hell of a barn burner, as the other guy will probably be right there as well. While the gates of Round 3 are very much open for any of them, I still see Yuna as the favorite. She underperformed against Master Chief, but she still had enough pop to more than double Vercetti, something I'm not sure either of her opponents today can do. If Vercetti was held down by Master Chief, then it isn't out of the realm of reality to assume the same fate can behold Alucard or Liquid. It'll be close, but I think Yuna squeeze through by a few points.

Master Chief - 35%
Yuna - 25%
Alucard - 20%
Liquid Snake - 20%

Lopen’s Analysis

Today... today is a day of a revolution. Believe, GAME FUEL, MASTER CHIEF IS INVINCIBLE!

Did I leave any off? I don't think I did. Alright, so... the question here, for me anyway, is not who wins out of Yuna, Alucard, and Liquid for what might be a hotly contested second place but rather how effectively Master Chief kicks their teeth in while they claw around for the scraps that we call second place. Now, I think Master Chief is going to do quite well for himself today. Some would say that by merit of the poll not having PafreakinRappa that he's guaranteed to fall below 40%. Nay, I say... that's simply not the case!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 8:32:43 PM | message detail | #074
Now any fool who's worth his Game Fuel could tell you that Master Chief gets stronger in the face of adversity. Like, remember that time there were eleven elites in the same room guardi-- er... that's not what I'm talking about! What I mean quite simply is that Master Chief's apparent contest power is gonna ramp up as his competition gets more and more rough. It's all about the fanatical fanbase I've been talkin about several times. Okay, sure, Phoenix Wright didn't really seem to have it.. but I really only know his fanbase from the board. Master Chief? Proven fanatical force. We will not abandon our champion of the X-Box... not easily.

Talk about someone who isn't Master Chief? What is this crap? I... I don't wanna! Alright, fine. I still think Yuna's a good deal ahead of Liquid and Alucard 1v1, but in this contest setting she might falter a bit... I'm not sure. I wouldn't feel terrible having Alucard or Liquid in second place right now, but I think Yuna should fall somewhat safely ahead of them. In spite of everything, Yuna's performance didn't strike me as weak last round. We had a proven man in Tommy Vercetti in that poll, and I don't think Tommy Vercetti has turned into a joke nor do I believe Master Chief SFFed him excessively.

Actually, something you might find interesting... if you use the 4-way stat generator for Vercetti, Yuna, and PaRappa's most recent X-Stat values, they're actually about proportionally correct. Coincidence? I THINK NOT...!! Truly, this must mean that Yuna is about as strong as 2k6 implies and Master Chief is just a beast in this format. Master Chief at 46% on BL pre-Halo3-boost in this format whoop believe believe believe.

(Okay, maybe not... as evidenced by my %s here! I mean believe)

Lopen's Prediction: (Look, they all get the dignity of actual names!)
Master Chief - 43.37%
Yuna - 20.22%
Alucard - 18.30%
Liquid Snake - 18.11%

Karma Hunter’s Analysis

What was once more of a debated match for first has more or less become a gauge for one of the - wait for it - favorites to make the finals.
How things change...

Master Chief

Absolutely demolishing his fourpack past the expectations of even his most stalwart supporters, Master Chief has established himself as a force in this format and perhaps being able to easily cruise past Ganondorf/upset Sonic. Though Brawl makes the latter possibility much more slim... however, with Halo 3 under his belt now, this could be the strongest Chief we've ever seen.

Let's see how that translates here against a threepack of legitimate competition.


While people gloss over it in retrospect, her performance was in comparison quite disappointing to Master Chief's. More overrating courtesy of the female bracket? Yuna bad in this format? Or was it deceptively decent? This will be the time to tell, though Yuna has a long way to go before making herself credible against the Ganon/Luigi duo. Not to mention she's not exactly picture-perfect safe against the other two opponents...

Liquid Snake

Finally getting some measure of vindication in these contests, Liquid snags a win - the closest win in contest history, to be exact - over Alucard, Ness, and Zidane. Of course, three votes isn't much to rest upon when your closest competition is returning for revenge here, but Liquid has never backed down from a prolonged confrontation before...


The Plan only comes through partially for Alucard, as while he snags second he loses to Liquid in a nailbiter (also making him the only board favorite in recent memory to lose such a match agh curse this sig). Plans are never without multiple steps, though, and Round 2 is cruise control for redemption...
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 8:33:23 PM | message detail | #075
Master Chief is a lock.

(oh god)

Now that we've got that out of the way, what we need to look for is exactly how dominating the Chief looks today, as well as looking for signals of a Halo 3 boost. Anything that signifies he didn't fall too much from last round's percentage means probable trouble for even a boosted SNOIC.

The rest? Yuna looks like a moderate favorite over the other two, and I'm gonna actually go with her (see? no unilateral MGS slurping here!). Neither Liquid nor Alucard upsetting should be a shock, but she just seems to be the one to go with here. As for Liquid/Alucard? Sticking with Liquid again !! - bad pic and all. brackets abandoning Alucard ftw aww yeah

Karma Hunter's Vote: Liquid Snake. THROUGH THIS- *gets shot*
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Master Chief with 39%, Yuna with 25%, Liquid Snake with 18%, Alucard with 18%

we do what we must because we can

Upset Probability: 50%

Both Liquid and Alucard have equally good shots at upending Yuna depending on if she bombs or not or something anyway time for some cake

Transience’s Analysis

'll come out and say it: I'm skeptical of Master Chief.

Master Chief's performance in round 1 was ridiculous: nearly 46% on a decent midcarder in Yuna, a low midcarder in Tommy Vercetti and a piece of crap in Parappa. I guess you could compare the fourpack in strength to Sonic's, and Master Chief outperformed him by a good 6%. oh, and the biggest game of the year got released for him between last round and this one. basically, he looks like a lock to get to the finals. I don't care about that Brawl announcement for Sonic, Master Chief is still the favourite to come in second there based on the first round. hell, he might be strong enough to place in the finals. okay, that's stretching it, but the format can only do so much: this has to be a stronger Master Chief. a much stronger one.

which is why I'm skeptical.

basically, we're basing Yuna off Master Chief. Yuna is the single most "w-w-w-what?" result from the female bracket last year. according to stats, she's stronger than Auron. prior to 2k6, she was about equal to Rikku. set Yuna = Rikku and that result looks a lot less crazy. then, throw in the good ol' FFX poll - -- and you can see that she's really not much of a fan-favourite. I could see her flopping in this format. add in that I think Master Chief had some kind of "casual SFF" over Tommy Vercetti, and I question just how strong he is.

that's not to say he isn't going to dominate this division -- he is. this is clearly a stronger Chief, format or not, and he's got Halo 3 behind him. but I wonder just how strong he really is. if he breaks 40% here, I'll be convinced he has a free ticket to the semis. if not, though? stuff is up for debate.

now that I've trashed Yuna, let's look at Liquid and Alucard. statistically, these guys are probably a step behind Yuna. Yuna would take them one-on-one, but what about in this format? both guys seem like fan-favourite types that would do well in multi-option polls. throw in that we've seen Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid show some possible overlap before -- are we 100% sure Auron/Big Boss is legitimate after seeing Big Boss this year? -- and we might have a closer match than we know.

I think all three of these guys will be battling for second. MGS keeps impressing me more and more, Yuna's the other way around and I like Alucard because he seems to be the most independent of the three. I'm backing Alucard here, but I think it will be a three-way fight for second.

Master Chief, winner
Liquid and Yuna come close
but I trust the plan

transience's prediction: Master Chief with 38.61%, Alucard with 21.24%, Yuna with 20.15%, Liquid Snake with 20.00%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 8:33:50 PM | message detail | #076
Guest’s Analysis - neonreaper

Let's frame neonreaper's 2007 bracket as such: I thought Big Boss was the same as The Boss because I haven't played the MGS series. Further, I thought that the non-Snake MGS characters were "just happy to be here", and would never have seen past contests except for "villains" and "chick" brackets. Maybe I should've looked at the lol x-stats once or twice, or remembered recent history, or not underestimated MGS for the 4th straight year.

But we're not here to talk about me. We're here to talk about Master Chief.

He's winning this match, against 3 somewhat solid (or liquid! hoooo-oooo!) midcarders. He's using his Master Chief magic to pummel fan favorites. Master Chief Petty Officer John 117 can't wait for all the topics crying about how he has no character, how his games are overrated, how he would lose in a fight, etc. Luckily for him, this contest isn't about which fanbase cries the most, it's about the worldwide recognition of a HERO! A legend! A demander of excellence!

His competition includes Liquid Snake, who belongs to that underrated-by-me MGS cast. And Alucard, who was edged by 3 votes in the previous round by Liquid. And Yuna, who overdid it last year but should be one peg above Alucard and Liquid.. enough to get by, chasing after the almighty Master Chief. Hoping.. praying.. begging that he'll return her calls...

An interesting subplot brews, as Alucard will fight to regain his honor against Liquid Snake. A stronger Square character, this time from LS's era and not Alucard's, will be in play. That might have already been proven to be a stupid sentiment, maybe not, but it's what I'm going with...

Master Chief.....35.1%
Liquid Snake.....20.6%

Hail to the Chief!

Crew Consensus: Stickin' with Chief > Yuna.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/13/2007 8:40:59 PM | message detail | #077
yuna has a dedicated fanbase i will beat you all up
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Lugia2 | Posted 10/13/2007 8:53:10 PM | message detail | #078
I dunno- even 2004, Halo 2 Chief was equal to FROG. He might be stronger, but TP taught us not to overestimate boosts...
"If the [PSP] is such a loser... why did you buy [one]?"- Saint Waldo
"Because I am crazy. I also own three Wonderswans."- Chris Kohler
th3l3fty | Posted 10/13/2007 8:54:50 PM | message detail | #079
This isn't a boost, just a result of the system!
Knight of the Cross of Sir Chris' Court
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics. -Sir Chris
DpObliVion | Posted 10/13/2007 9:43:58 PM | message detail | #080
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

When I made my bracket, I figured the FF vote would be able to push Yuna into first. I also figured that the anti-Xbox/Master Chief voting would keep him down. Well, hooray for getting 2 points tomorrow.

The Xbox hate, which had once been a completely debilitating factor, is now completely gone, as seen from not only Master Chief's performance so far, but also Marcus Fenix's performance. Now post-Halo 3, Master Chief could possibly look like a Noble Niner against three strong competitors.

Yuna should still take 2nd here with the FF vote, while Alucard and Liquid Snake battle behind her again for meaningless 3rd place. Liquid Snake barely pulled it off in the first round, but Alucard should be past him a bit more comfortably this time. Liquid loses votes to another strong PS2 presence in Yuna, and I'd say it's more likely that he'd lose more votes to MC than Alucard would. Plus, if it's meaningless, people are less likely to rally for Liquid.

*rips up my bracket*

What the hell was I thinking....

DpOblivion's bracket says: Yuna > Alucard

Confidence Rating: 0%

DpOblivion's prediction is: Master Chief > Yuna

Confidence Rating: 80%

Master Chief - 35%
Yuna - 27%
Alucard - 20%
Liquid Snake - 18%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS*
DpObliVion | Posted 10/13/2007 9:47:22 PM | message detail | #081
Ooh, yay, I have MC > Yuna on my smarter alt bracket though!

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS*
Lopen | Posted 10/14/2007 12:20:49 AM | message detail | #082
I'm gonna laugh and laugh if Master Chief outdoes my expectations again.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/14/2007 12:57:33 AM | message detail | #083
I dunno- even 2004, Halo 2 Chief was equal to FROG. He might be stronger, but TP taught us not to overestimate boosts...

That was pre-Halo 2. >_<
Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/14/2007 1:01:54 AM | message detail | #084
There's really no overestimating here. Chief has gone above any beyond expectations (even Lopen's) twice in a row. This isn't a fluke. Unless he's the type who's going to collapse when he gets met with an iconic character - which is certainly possible - The Chief is going the distance this year. After all, he doesn't really even get hit with a real icon until what...semifinals?


Year of The Chief.

Or something.
CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
ZFS | Posted 10/14/2007 1:04:13 AM | message detail | #085
darn you master chief

let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/14/2007 1:05:07 AM | message detail | #086
There ain't no gettin' offa this train!
CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/14/2007 1:07:30 AM | message detail | #087
Of course, as I say that, Chief's updates have dropped ~3%.

CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
ZFS | Posted 10/14/2007 1:07:33 AM | message detail | #088
all aboard vincent > crono woo woo

let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/14/2007 1:08:07 AM | message detail | #089
Get your communist propaganda out of here.
CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
ZFS | Posted 10/14/2007 1:09:03 AM | message detail | #090
You love it.

let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/14/2007 1:10:06 AM | message detail | #091
Love seeing your bracket crumble to pieces when Crono beats in Vincent's face.

And when Mario beats Sephiroth!

Just through I'd throw that last on in there for good measure.
CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
ZFS | Posted 10/14/2007 1:10:48 AM | message detail | #092
lightning strikes = kleneex confirmed

let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/14/2007 1:11:24 AM | message detail | #093
It's not trolling.

It's justice.
CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
ZFS | Posted 10/14/2007 1:12:18 AM | message detail | #094
so i hurd you liek tos yaoi

let's mosey
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2007 11:52:16 AM | message detail | #095
Luigi................28.11% 39230
Mudkip............24.97% 34851
Ganondorf......31.06% 43349
Vergil..............15.86% 22130
TOTAL VOTES...........139560

22.49% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly.
17.89% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly.

54.52% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd.
55.36% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st.

Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 29; Half Correct - 10; Barely Correct - 2

Ganondorf and Luigi advance, but with a pretty big split between them. Mudkip took advantage of it early, but eventually fell behind.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Guest gets 4 points in a row!!

Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds) - 9
HM - 6
Lopen - 6
Yoblazer - 6
KH - 4
Moltar - 3
Tran - 3
Ulti - 2

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Ganon, Tran gets the point for Luigi, HM and Ulti get points for Mudkip, and Guest gets the point for Vergil.

HM - 31
Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "2", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "2", Bio "2", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds) - 31
Yoblazer - 29
Lopen - 22
Moltar - 20
Ulti - 20
Tran - 17
KH - 15
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
MC/Yuna/Alucard/Liquid - Bracket: MC > Yuna - Vote: Liquid (171/200)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/14/2007 11:52:53 AM | message detail | #096
Guests are kicking your asses.
CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
Lugia2 | Posted 10/14/2007 6:46:49 PM | message detail | #097
So the "Guests are killing us so let's keep them out" conspiracy is an okay option, right?

Kidding. Oh, and as for the Chief:

2004: Hype for Halo 2 should probably push him up, just as Snake has turned into a monster because of a game that would not release for two years (2006 run two years before 2/10/2008). Still, the "game wasn't out theory" may have been in play too- see ZSSamus, Ninja Raiden...though Ye Olde Snake doesn't seem much different...

2005: His biggest year (Post-Halo 2): After making CATS look like an actual competitor (33%? The heck?), he does well against DK, who is really low on the Ninty ladder. His crowning achievement is preventing Crono from breaking 62%. Yech.

2006: Before this year, he should have been AWESOME. Sony became the new "M$" as people thanks to Mr. $599 and people saw the 360 as something less than satan recarnated. Halo 3 hype hadn't really started, but it was there.

Then he lost to Subby. I mean, I can understand Auron...but a Mortal Kombat character past his prime? One who's more connected with the weak-ish Scorpion than the almighty Ryu? Sigh...

Well, he's smashing Yuna's face in- and thus my bracket, since I had Yuna>MC for at least two rounds in a row, and I don't think I have MC advancing next round, which may explain my dislike for him- but are we so sure that mr. "anti-transitive" will do so well with stronger opponents? Time will tell...

Though he does seem to be an upper mid-carder...or maybe I'm misreading him...
"If the [PSP] is such a loser... why did you buy [one]?"- Saint Waldo
"Because I am crazy. I also own three Wonderswans."- Chris Kohler
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2007 9:31:08 PM | message detail | #098
Division 6: Round 2 - Match 43 – Dante vs. Amaterasu vs. Ada Wong vs. Balthier

Moltar’s Analysis

Round 1 – 49.19% vs. Amaterasu, Little Mac and Matt

Beating down some dudes is nothing to him.

Round 1 – 22.75% vs. Dante, Little Mac and Matt

Looks like people actually started playing Okami!

Round 1 – 38.42% vs. Balthier, Frank and Jade

mmm mmm yum

Round 1 – 33.00% vs. Ada, Frank and Jade

bububububut Final Fantasy XII


Yeah, the Division that most of us bombed in Round 1 is back with a vengeance. Pre-Contest, Dante > Balthier was pretty much a lock. Since then, some spice has been added to the match. Mainly, Amaterasu making it here, Balthier being Lolthier, and Ada doing so well because the voters want to…aww yeah.

So, first thing’s first….place that is. Dante takes it without much trouble. Amaterasu is also the most likely candidate for last place. Yeah, she did advance with a pretty decent number, but look at her competition. I mean, who would pick THEM to advance (mmm mmm hindsight)

The battle for second, in my opinion, is between Ada and Balthier. Now, Ada surprised many last round by easily taking first in her group. Now, you know your fourpack is crap when Ada “I got killed by Samus” freakin’ Wong takes it. The big big big question here is how she holds up with Dante, a well-known character. Here, she doesn’t get the “Oh, she was the chick in RE4 and I have no clue who in the hell the rest of these characters are” vote. I think that’s going to be something that will hit her hard.

Balthier, on the other hand, probably got most of his votes from fans of FFXII or FF in general. That saying, he should hold up better here than Ada. Yeah, call it me clinging to my bracket, but I think Balthier will *somewhat* redeem himself for the embarrassment last round.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Dante > Balthier

Moltar’s Prediction is: Dante: 43% - Balthier: 21% - Ada: 19% - Ammy: 17%

Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

I'm fairly sure Board 8 consensus had Balthier winning his match with Ada in second, but he completely embarrassed himself in the first round's lowest-scoring match.

Dante has a very easy first place here, and the only way Ada doesn't get second place is if we see some whacky PS2 SFF in the match. We've seen it before (Snake/Sora, FF7 vs anything in the PSx era, etc), but I don't know if people care about these characters enough to have them deviate from the norm. Dante > Ada seems safe enough.

Ulti's Prediction:
Dante [44.00%]
Ada [21.00%]
Balthier [19.00%]
Ammy [16.00%]

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Man, what in the world happened to Balthier last round? Losing to Ada Wong is not how you wanna come out in your first contest match. Fortunately, I think he has a chance to turn around in this match. Delusional? Maybe – but it’s the leading man, yo!

There have been a few folks to bring it up (tran, notably, I think) about the possibility of Ada “collapsing” when she runs into someone more well-known, like Dante. I’m not sure how true that may be, but if today is any indication with Liquid, there may be something to it. We’re seeing right now that someone can go from winning last round to not even being competitive. While I don’t think it’ll go that far, Balthier might be the Alucard of this one and reverse the result!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2007 9:31:33 PM | message detail | #099
If nothing else, Balthier should easily have the more dedicated fanbase here. I know some people don’t really buy into that, but if Ada does lose some of that casual support, she’s gotta rely on the bigger Ada Wong fans (man what). Balthier may not be where some of us expected him to be, but he’s still from Final Fantasy, and he’ll get that chunk of the vote.

Yeah, there may not be a lot going for Balthier this round, aside from having to rely on some goofy stuff, but eh, I don’t think he’s in nearly as bad a position as some are saying. Even if he doesn’t advance here, I do expect him to be a lot closer to Ada than he was last round. And Amaterasu? Get that thing outta here – it ain’t beating Balthier!!

Dante – 35%
Balthier – 25%
Ada Wong – 23%
Amaterasu – 17%

Bracket: Dante > Balthier
Vote: Balthier

Yoblazer’s Analysis

My goodness, Chief's domination is making Dante's weak performance against three total pieces of fodder look even worse. I was a firm believer that Dante and Leon's casual LFF (I'm still not sure what that stands for, but it looks nice) would allow the Nintendo rep, most likely Ganondorf, to come in first ahead of Master Chief, but I'm not nearly as confident now. Regardless, Dante's competition hasn't improved drastically over the last round, so he'll cruise to another win, and we'll have to wait another round to see how he performs against real competition. Needless to say, Dante really lucked out with his draw; it's the easiest 8-pack of the field by a wide margin.

His hapless competitors are three entrants who shocked us for two different reasons. While Ada Wong and Amaterasu can be considered two of the first round's strongest performers, Balthier Bunansa, who nearly everyone has in a comfortable second place today, was undoubtedly one of the weakest. Balthier was expected to cruise in the first round against fodderific competition. Instead, he lost to the lovely Ada by 5.5%. It has to rank up there as one of the worst first impressions we've seen in recent years, and a real testament to just how little GameFAQs, an RPG haven, cares about FFXII.

There have been theories about Balthier benefiting from some Dante/Ada casual SFF en route to a razor thin second place finish. I won't say it's impossible. Actually, the proof is staring us in the face right now. Alucard and Liquid went dead even last round, yet one of them is leading by over 6% today. Based on that alone, I'd come across very arrogant to say Balthier has zero chance, but whatever chance he does have is super slim. There may indeed be casual SFF, but I don't think it will be enough to let Balthier pull through, not when FFXII has already fallen on its face twice and its becoming more apparent that no one cares about the characters. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Dante hurts Balthier more and Ada holds up surprisingly well after the popular RE4Wii.

Also, I think Amaterasu might surprise people here. The wolf held up surprisingly well against Dante and crushed the other two weaklings, so it may actually have a decent fanbase. On the other hand, the ease of its win may be attributed to the fact that it had the coolest picture by far, an advantage no one really has in today's match.

Dante - 41%
Ada Wong - 22%
Balthier Bunansa - 19%
Amaterasu - 18%

Lopen’s Analysis

"To take me out you must fight like a man
You've yet to proven that you can
I see your might it compares to something
That is if something is nothing"
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2007 9:32:12 PM | message detail | #100
Anyone who is worth their salt as far as knowing Dante goes had this enter their mind when deciding this match. Now this raises the question.. who is the most manly fighter here? Alright, so in corner three, we've got a dog... that turns into a girl, that... fights with a paintbrush or something. Pretty much the antithesis of fighting like a man. I think we can safely Amaterasu is not in the running.

Then we've got Ada Wong and Balthier. Intuition says that the one who is actually a man fights more like a man. So therefo-- no... upon I... well... no. Ada Wong fights more like a man, there's no question about this.

Uh... uh... but... dammit! That doesn't say what I want at all! Damn you Ada for being so badass. Fine, a different approach.

Ada beat Balthier last round, but I don't think her fanbase will hold very well when put up against a badass guns glory demon slaying demon like Dante. It wasn't a huge defecit Balthier had to overcome last round, and his more devoted fanbase should hold against stronger competition better in general. Not to mention that Dante might be the closest thing to a direct trump Ada has.. their games are both Capcom and kinda similar in appeal. Though I suppose Ada is primarily Gamecube, which might make it less of a direct trump. Still, I think any popular character in general would do it enough to put her below Balthier just barely... we'll see, though!

Amaterasu has a chance too... a small chance, but 22% on Dante isn't too bad. I don't expect any of these three to outdo that today... course her competition is far from the FNBA this time... (Fodder National Boxing Association for those keeping score at home)

Lopen's prediction:
Dante - 41.14%
Balthier - 22.02%
Ada Wong - 20.80%
Amaterasu - 16.04%

Guest’s Analysis - satai_delenn

"Look, Agni. We have guests."
"Guests? How exciting, Rudra! We haven't had guests in a very long time."
"They look like they're fighting, brother. Who do you think will win?"
"Hmm. Hmmm. Oh, look, one of them is the son of Sparda, that rather rude young man who visited us last time we had a guest."
"Ah yes, the one who was sighing. He was very strong, wasn't he? Yes, he was the one who was able to defeat us."
"Yes, yes. Surely, if he can defeat us, he can defeat two humans and a …dog?"
"That's a wolf, Agni."
"What is 'wolf'?"
"Well, you see, a 'wolf' is a kind of wild dog that—wait a minute, we were talking about the fight! Don't change the subject!"

*ahem* That's enough of letting two swords write my analysis for me.

What a strange match. Three Capcom characters and…Balthier. All four from games that appeared on PS2. First place and last place are fairly obvious, I should think; it's the middle two that require some thought.

I'll start with the wolf. It unfortunately finds itself in a match with three fairly recognizable/popular characters from three very popular franchises and to be honest, if it weren't for the contest I'd have had no idea what its name was. Okami made a bit of a splash when it came out, but it seems too cult to allow its main character to do much here. Sorry, Ammy.