GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
| trannyscience | Posted 10/5/2007 9:56:57 PM | message detail | #401 |
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hey, I had Scorpion in my bracket! of course I also had Knuckles --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/5/2007 10:06:27 PM | message detail | #402 |
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WTF, why don't I have the lowest Samus prediction?!! --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO KNUX!* |
| Lopen | Posted 10/5/2007 10:21:08 PM | message detail | #403 |
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Man I was calling for scorpion to impress before it was cool, yo. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| Tatl | Posted 10/6/2007 12:41:48 AM | message detail | #404 |
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*Just get third, just get third, just get third* *Third is fine, third is fine, third is fine* ^Magic words of hope for Midna. --- Midna for 2007 Character Battle Champion! (Yea, it won't happen, but I can dream!) Go Midna! |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/6/2007 6:58:27 AM | message detail | #405 |
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wow... WTF @ people with Samus lower than 40% So Sonic couldn't break 40% on Sub, Prince and VJ.... so Samus won't be able to break 40% on charatcers of approximately equal strength? I have news for you: Samus >>>> Sonic --- Oracle Prediction: ~ Samus with her suit on 44.00% - Hank Scorpio 23.91% - Amphibian 18.48% - Midnay 13.61% ~ Status: OK |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2007 9:28:03 AM | message detail | #406 |
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Yoshi.................................28.24% 35438 Knuckles the Echidna....20.27% 25442 Mega Man........................37.73% 47353 KOS-MOS........................13.75% 17261 TOTAL VOTES.............................125494 25.80% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 18.04% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 53.00% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 38.47% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew bracket: 112/136 Yoshi has no problems holding off Kunckles from taking 2nd, and Mega Man easily takes first. Crew Prediction Challenge - KH gets the point. Lopen - 6 Yoblazer - 5 Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi) - 5 KH - 4 HM - 3 Moltar - 3 Tran - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for MM, KH gets the point for Yoshi, Ulti gets the point for Knuckles, and HM gets a point for KOS-MOS. Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "4", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "2", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "2", Bio "2") - 24 HM - 24 Yoblazer - 23 Ulti - 17 Lopen - 16 Moltar - 15 Tran - 15 KH - 12 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Samus/Frog/Scorpion/Midna - Bracket: Samus > Midna - Vote: Samus (115/136) |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/6/2007 9:42:34 PM | message detail | #407 |
| Moltar, I just sent you my analysis. Sorry for the delay. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2007 10:02:03 PM | message detail | #408 |
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Division 2: Round 2 - Match 35 – Marcus Fenix vs. Kefka vs. Cloud vs. Revolver Ocelot Moltar’s Analysis Marcus Round 1 – 36.79% vs. Kefka, Tom Nook and Zelos Power of the Xbox! Kefka Round 1 – 31.99% vs. Marcus, Tom Nook and Zelos Never fails to disappoint. Cloud Round 1 – 61.24% vs. Ocelot, Jill and Zolom Been a while since we’ve seen him dominate. Ocelot Round 1 – 17.68% vs. Cloud, Jill and Zolom Manages to beat out Jill. Another pretty tough match pre-contest looks a bit easier after Round 1. Of course, Cloud takes the first spot with ease. This group isn’t that much stronger than his first group, so expect a high percentage for him. Number 2 is up for grabs between Ocelot, Kefka and Marcus. First character we can rule out is Kefka. For one thing, he couldn’t even impress last round, as he allowed Marcus to pull one of the biggest turn-arounds in Contest history. Now he’s could the main Final Fantasy man Cloud to suck up some of his voters. Between Ocelot and Fenix, it’s a bit tougher to choose who takes second. We’ve seen how Ocelot holds up with Cloud, but I think Marcus will take it. Last round we saw the core Xbox base push him to an easy first, and this time around, I think they’ll be able to keep him alive in this match. Cloud will be putting the hurt on Ocelot and Kefka, so Marcus shouldn’t have too much of a problem getting through thanks to his independence. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Cloud > Marcus Moltar’s Prediction is: Cloud: 54% - Marcus: 20% - Ocelot: 15% - Kefka: 11% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Very odd match here. Kefka gave up a huge lead to Fenix in the first round, but both managed to make it through. Ocelot if only here because he was SFFd slightly less by Cloud than Jill Valentine was. The funny thing here is that Fenix being the odd character out works in his favor here. Ocelot is likely to get SFFs again, and even though we've never seen FF6 vs FF7 (not that I can remember off the top of my had, anyway), I'm pretty sure Kefka will get SFFd as well. Fenix, by virtue of not sharing a fanbase with anyone else here might actually come in second place. Ulti's Prediction: Cloud [48.00%] Fenix [22.00%] Ocelot [16.00%] Kefka [14.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis After Cloud impressed in the first round with a crazy 61% on Ocelot and Jill, I’m thinking he can do even better here -- nearly 60% against Fenix, Ocelot and Kefka. A tall order? Maybe! But I like what I’m seeing from Cloud this year; in fact, I like what I’m seeing from most of the FF7 crew. I don’t want to jump the gun and say anything crazy (oh yeah I do), but if Cloud does I’m expecting this match, I think we may see some...unexpected results in the later rounds! What’s leftover from Cloud’s domination is up for grabs, though. I could actually see all three of these guys managing to steal second here and advance. Out of them all, I’d say Kefka is the most unlikely, but I wouldn’t completely count him out of it. I’m going to be siding with Fenix here over Ocelot, though. Fenix’s performance last round was a bit more impressive than Ocelot’s, and despite the good showings from MGS in the contest so far, the Xbox characters are the ones who have been kicking the most ass. Another advantage here is that Fenix is the most independent of the guys here. He’s not affiliated with Square in any way, and he’s got no connection to Ocelot. With someone who is looking as good as Fenix, being the most independent is bound to have its perks. I think this ends up a lot closer than the past couple of matches we’ve seen, but I’m sticking Ocelot as the “Knuckles” of this match -- not out of it, but unlikely to advance. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2007 10:02:31 PM | message detail | #409 |
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So this match is going to prove one thing -- CLOUD IS GUN’ BE ABLE TO BEAT LINK BELIEVE !! Cloud – 57% Marcus Fenix – 16% Revolver Ocelot – 15% Kefka – 12% Bracket: Cloud > Kefka Vote: Cloud Yoblazer’s Analysis This match has some good potential for a second place barn burner, but the fact that my personal Round 3 prediction, Jill Valentine, is long gone, I don't care as much as I should. Cloud is a guarantee to rock the next handful of matches, and I think he'll maintain a percentage well into the 50's here; his competition is just too weak. The only possibility for excitement rests with Marcus Fenix and Revolver Ocelot. Ocelot used his fan favorite status and Metal Gear's impressive strength in these polls to easily outlast Jill, but Fenix's surprising route and killer day vote place him as the favorite in my eyes. The fact that he's exclusive to a console that is independent of Cloud Strife just reinforces that. Cloud > Fenix. Cloud Strife - 54% Marcus Fenix - 18% Revolver Ocelot - 16% Kefka - 12% Lopen’s Analysis The Ocelot... renowned for its appetite for green leafy vegetables. Watch as it approaches is prey, slowly... sneaking... as it approaches, it lets out its ferocious hunting cry... "An Ocelot never lets his prey escape" Shots ring out. The lettuce is terrified. It rolls out of the lettuce patch... it is hindered by the sand, but the lettuce knows how to roll much quicker than its brethren. It makes a dash. Lettuce hope it gets away this ti-- "It doesn't feel right to shoot an unarmed head of lettuce... but I'll get over it." More bullets permeate the air, all but deafening the lettuce. He turns, looking to his leafy fellowship. They resemble something that could be bought at the Olive Garden now, somehow gracefully destroyed by the rounds. The lettuce's eyes meet up with those of his stalker for a brief moment. He twirls his revolver, and lets loose not a bullet, but a hand gesture. The lettuce is befuddled. "Uwehehe! Why didn't the kitten shoot me!?" he thinks to himself as he ducks into a log. "Reloading like this, it's a revolution." "Hehehe..." It darts from its log hearing that, and drawing upon the power of the Goddesses as it rolls out, the lettuce sheds its leafy exterior. A humanoid begins to take shape. "I am not lettuce, but a man, with a name!", it's shrill voice booms as it completes its transformation. "You shall call me MASTER!" The madman conjures up a Cloud to rain lightning down as the Ocelot reloads... but... nothing happens? "Plain name, but I wont forget it," Ocelot retorts, nearly finished reloading, not turning his attention to the Cloud. As he speaks, the Cloud increases in size at an alarming rate. Ocelot twirls his now loaded revolvers, ready to fire at the lettuce turned man. But it's too late. The Cloud has already enveloped both competitors... they are now unseen, unheard, completely obscured by the Cloud. Marcus Fenix, a few hundred feet in the distance, turns his head quizzically to one side, shrugs, and walks away. Lopen's Prediction: Cloud - 50.99% Marcus Fenix - 22.01% Ocelot - 14.37% Kefka - 12.63% Karma Hunter’s Analysis Marcus Fenix The GeoW protagonist returns as a probable favorite for Round 3 here among most of the board - and after Xbox has performed so far, you can't really blame most of 'em. I personally think there's a bit of overestimation being done here (he WAS losing to Kefka half the day), but he's definitely looking good to advance. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2007 10:03:20 PM | message detail | #410 |
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Kefka aka Dead in the Water. As if his epic collapse against Marcus wasn't bad enough, he's got Cloud breathing down his neck to make sure he looks like utter crap today. Cloud Strife Our current #2 is looking to try to impress again, which will be agreed by all to be a fantastic display until Link decimates that bar down the line. Revolver Ocelot Taking down the BIG favorite to Round 3, Ocelot now has to face down another pretty darn big favorite here in Fenix. Unable to catch a break with an MGS3 picture here, can Ocelot pull off another stunning upset? Our first semi-iffy match of the round comes in the form of Fenix v Ocelot. This is likely an answer to not only GeoW's presence on this site to an extent, but also the question of which entity has been more impressive this round; Xbox or MGS. On the one hand, you could say Marcus is a near-lock when comparing the strengths of Kefka and Ocelot, who have presumably been near-equals thanks to measuring through Pac-Man. They've even got comparable 'fan-favorite' status, and you could certainly expect Kefka to be higher on his pecking order! But let's not forget that Ocelot beat a character who would DEFINITELY beat Kefka (and one who would conceivably beat Ocelot one-on-one) in this format, and that even fodder MGS characters have something that FF6 doesn't - people *really* care about them, and they stay relevant. Fenix is certainly the most independent character here, but we've already seen how Ocelot held up against the character that was supposed to drain him (Cloud). I consider it a very impressive performance. So does this all make Ocelot the favorite? Heck no, but I'm the MGS fanboy on this Crew and I have a duty to take him when I feel he can. I've already been MGShamed on Jill, so I'm not doubting you this time, Ocelot. Karma Hunter's Vote: Revolver Ocelot. THROUGH THIS ARM Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Cloud Strife with 57.5%, Revolver Ocelot with 16%, Marcus Fenix with 15%, Kefka with 11.5% etc etc believe Upset Probability: 70% blah blah XBOXFEAR walla walla Transience’s Analysis this is an interesting match, though I think we've decided on a favourite. Marcus Fenix has by far the most independent fanbase in this match - the other three have shown to overlap with FF7 in the past, and I sure wouldn't trust anyone when Square's alpha dog is the one they have to draw votes away from. besides, did you see that day vote? I don't care that he was going against Kefka, one of the worst day votes of all time. that was crazy. but with Marcus, who knows? Lettuce Kefka may have made Kefka unrecognizable to casual voters -- if anyone is affected by pictures, it's Kefka. Marcus Fenix also seems like a guy that needs a good picture, which is what he got in round 1. if he gets a bad one here, he could be scary. plus, we've seen Ocelot impress when he gets a "young ocelot" picture, and not do as well with an "old ocelot" picture. I think the picture might be very significant here. I won't count any of these guys out for second, not even Kefka. Kefka may be overlapping with Cloud here, but he *does* have a lot of people that care about him. it's unlikely he advances, but I won't say it's impossible, especially when Fenix has to deal with one of the most recognizable characters on the site being in the poll with him in Cloud. and that's saying nothing of Ocelot, a very loved character from a series that has done nothing but impress so far (well, except for Raiden, but who knows what's up there?). I'll predict Marcus here solely due to his independence, but god only knows what happens. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2007 10:03:51 PM | message detail | #411 |
| I'm not going to be around to see the picture, but
if we get Young Ocelot, Unrecognizable Marcus and Crappy Kefka, I'd
probably back Ocelot. if we get recognizable Fenix, he takes this. and
if we get a Kefka sprite for some random reason? god only knows. Fenix, beat Ocelot? probably not one-on-one but Cloud's in the poll transience's prediction: Cloud with 50.78%, Marcus Fenix with 19.45%, Revolver Ocelot with 18.78%, Kefka with 10.99% Guest’s Analysis - Lady_Ashe So... this match is pretty much pointless now. At first, there was some potential for argument over who takes second between Ocelot and Marcus. Then this happened: http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-35.jpg ...Yeah, not much to say there. Marcus dominates the picture, while Cloud is invisible and will still grab 5000% of the vote. So the argument now shifts to Ocelot and Kefka, until people realize there isn't any argument there either. MGS has been kicking ass and taking names, while all non-Big Name FF characters have been doing poorly. There is no reason to believe this will change. Especially with the number one Final Fantasy character in the poll with Kefka. So the result will be Cloud > Marcus > Ocelot > Kefka. There is no possible way anything else could happen. What about percentage? Kefka will get annihilated by Cloud, Ocelot and Cloud will both drop from last round somewhat due to the stronger competition, and Marcus will ride his X-Box fanbase to Round 3. Kefka - 10.54% Ocelot - 14.85% Marcus - 17.43% Cloud - 57.18% ...Why did I sign up for this match? Crew Consensus: Cloud > Fenix, aww yeah xbox |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/6/2007 10:05:14 PM | message detail | #412 |
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argh underscore ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 10/6/2007 10:15:12 PM | message detail | #413 |
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Not enough Ocelot faith. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. Pokemon Diamond FC: 4510-6960-6498 |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/6/2007 10:16:00 PM | message detail | #414 |
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You'll see why soon enough. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2007 10:16:58 PM | message detail | #415 |
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wow, no one took Ocelot? shocking. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2007 10:17:16 PM | message detail | #416 |
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oh wait, KH did but HOLY FANBOY --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/6/2007 10:17:42 PM | message detail | #417 |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2007 10:18:23 PM | message detail | #418 |
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Hey now, Fenix has been my whorese since the beginning. Can't go against him when he's the favorite now! But I'd "aww yeah" if Ocelot won. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144) |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2007 10:19:38 PM | message detail | #419 |
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I had Marcus, then switched to Kefka, then to Ocelot, then to Jill. whoops! --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 10/6/2007 10:20:18 PM | message detail | #420 |
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Just saying, since when did beating Kefka classify as a great achievement and upsetting Jill means nothing? --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. Pokemon Diamond FC: 4510-6960-6498 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2007 10:20:53 PM | message detail | #421 |
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Shouldn't second...third...fourth guess yourself! --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144) |
| Lopen | Posted 10/6/2007 10:21:42 PM | message detail | #422 |
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I had Zelos (shut up!), but I always said if Fenix turns out not
flopping he's the one taking this match. Same logic applies with my
decision. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2007 10:22:26 PM | message detail | #423 |
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well, I had Midna and switched to Scorpion! Just saying, since when did beating Kefka classify as a great achievement and upsetting Jill means nothing? Jill really isn't all that much better than Kefka. this isn't even about strength though, it's about Marcus being like a mini Master Chief. I think he does pretty good here, even if Cloud would crush him one on one. that said, the potential for him to bomb is definitely there. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| Lopen | Posted 10/6/2007 10:22:53 PM | message detail | #424 |
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And I had Zelos losing to Kefka. The point is that Marcus Fenix or XBOXFEAR had nothing to do with my write-up at least. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/6/2007 10:25:47 PM | message detail | #425 |
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From Biolizard28 Posted 10/6/2007 11:20:18 PM #420 Just saying, since when did beating Kefka classify as a great achievement and upsetting Jill means nothing? They don't. They were both completely expected, as is tomorrow's result. (I can't wait for Marcus to suddenly get negative percentage. =/) ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 10/6/2007 10:28:01 PM | message detail | #426 |
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Aw, man, I forgot to mention the FFT PSP boost for Cloud! would you like a flower ser --- let's mosey |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/6/2007 10:53:57 PM | message detail | #427 |
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I think the others have no chance at all solely because Marcus = Xbox
and the others will have to split the PS vote. If it wasn't for that
I'd say Ocelot would have a good shot at 2nd. --- SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/6/2007 10:59:06 PM | message detail | #428 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis: Ahh, look at the time! Okay, short and sweet..... Cloud kicks ass. Who takes 2nd? Kefka wouldn't even be able to take it even if there was no SFF for him, he's screwed even more now. He finishes last. Marcus Fenix was the big surprise in the first round. But he had such weak competition, what kind of numbers can he put up with good competition? I didn't trust him last round and he proved me wrong....and I still don't trust him. Let him make me look like a fool again. He takes 3rd. That leaves Revolver Ocelot for 2nd. Discounted in the 1st round by most, he'll be coming through this round. MGS vote > 360 vote, he should certainly pull through over Marcus Fenix for 2nd place. DpOblivion's bracket says: Cloud > Ocelot DpOblivion's prediction is: Cloud > Ocelot Confidence Rating: 80% Cloud - 48% Ocelot - 21% Marcus Fenix - 19% Kefka - 12% --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/6/2007 11:03:58 PM | message detail | #429 |
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Without looking at results of the poll yet..... Ugh, wtf, only one person on the Crew predicts Cloud > Ocelot, and he's the MGS fanboy?! *checks poll* Holy WTF closeness Batman. You mean to tell me I missed the first 3 minutes of this match reading these damn analyses! Grr... --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/6/2007 11:04:55 PM | message detail | #430 |
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Board vote. --- SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/6/2007 11:34:07 PM | message detail | #431 |
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Come on, Ocelot, please don't pull another Wesker on me.... --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 1:03:53 PM | message detail | #432 |
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Samus Aran........45.96% 61543 Frog......................17.45% 23372 Scorpion..............24.01% 32150 Midna...................12.57% 16834 TOTAL VOTES................133899 78.89% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 27.07% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 9.54% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 2.44% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 23; Half Correct - 9; Barely Correct - 2 Samus performs very well against decent competition. Scorpion also doesn't do too shabby and advances to Round 3. Crew Prediction Challenge - Yo gets the point Lopen - 6 Yoblazer - 6 Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi) - 5 KH - 4 HM - 3 Moltar - 3 Tran - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Samus, Ulti and Yo get points for Scorpion, Tran gets the point for Frog and Lopen gets a point for Midna. Yoblazer - 25 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "4", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "2", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "2", Bio "2") - 24 HM - 24 Ulti - 18 Lopen - 17 Tran - 16 Moltar - 15 KH - 12 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/7/2007 1:04:27 PM | message detail | #433 |
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Damn it Ocelot, you're pulling another Wesker on me.... --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 2:28:18 PM | message detail | #434 |
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I have the analysis crew spot for tonight's match, but I really don't
have the time to put any thought into it today like I'd want to. If
someone else wants to take it, go for it, otherwise I'll still do it,
just so it's not an empty spot. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:22:37 PM | message detail | #435 |
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Division 2: Round 2 - Match 36 – Auron vs. Shadow vs. Ryu vs. Bowser Moltar’s Analysis Auron Round 1 – 43.26% vs. Shadow, Pyramid Head, Chris Showed no mercy against his competition. Shadow Round 1 – 26.28% vs. Auron, Pyramid Head, Chris Poor Shadow =( Ryu Round 1 – 36.30% vs. Bowser, Mewtwo and Toad Still thanks Mewtwo and Toad Bowser Round 1 – 28.62% vs. Ryu, Mewtwo and Toad Still blames Mewtwo and Toad. HYPEHYPEHYPEHYPEHYPE Yes, raising the hype level for this match. It was one of the most debated matches of Round 2 before the Contest, and Round 1 didn’t make things too much easier. Okay, well, it kind of did. Shadow doesn’t stand a chance of advancing. Thanks to Sonic looking bad in general, and his embarassing performance last round, he’s looking to take fourth easily. You’re still getting my vote though! The top three, however, is just one big cluster****. Any combination of the three can take 1 and 2, so from here on out it’s pretty much just guessing. First up, there’s Auron. In my mind, he’s the most likely to take first. Not only is he stronger than all these other guys one-on-one, but I still think this format is just what he needs. Last round he looked very good, and it’s not like there are any other characters here who will weaken him significantly. Second is a brawl between Ryu and Bowser. We saw what happened last round, where most claim that the reason Ryu beat out Bowser was because of Mewtwo and Toad being in the poll. Well, because of that, I’m expecting Bowser to hold up really well, but Ryu’s got the fighting spirit in him! I don’t expect to see him go down easily, especially with the way fighters have performed against tough competition. It should be close no matter which way it goes, but I’m sticking to my bracket here. Auron and Ryu looked the best last round, and I’m hoping they’ll both pull through here. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Auron > Ryu Moltar’s Prediction is: Auron: 31% - Ryu: 28% - Bowser: 27% - Shadow: 14% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Bowser was rSFFd into second place in the first round by the presence of two other Nintendo characters in his match, but with no Nintendo characters to compete with here he should be safe. Auron *should* take first and Bowser second, but I don't want to call anything obvious given my curse in these things. And I'm kind of upset with both Ryu and Bowser for screwing Mewtwo over, so... meh. At least Shadow comes in last like he deserves. Bastard. Ulti's Prediction: Auron [33.00%] Bowser [27.00%] Ryu [25.00%] Shadow [15.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Best match of round 2? aww yeah Last round gave us an idea of what we need to expect in this match -- a battle for second between Bowser and Ryu. After Shadow being closer to Pyramid Head than to Auron, and with Sonic characters -- even the main hedgehog himself -- underperforming expectations, it’s safe to say that Shadow is pretty much a non-factor here. First place, I think, will clearly go to Auron. He’s a step ahead of the other guys here and he came out looking good last round. I’d be surprised if he struggled all that much here. He isn’t going to blow them out by any means, but at the same time, he’s not going to need to worry about not advancing, or even not winning. Who takes second, on the other hand, is up in the air. Ryu put a beating on Bowser last round, but that was obviously due to SFF. What’s tough to decide is how many of those Mewtwo and Toad votes are going to go to Bowser. If he takes the lion’s share of them, it’s probably a solid victory for him here, but I dunno. There’s something about Bowser that seems a bit off for whatever reason. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:23:05 PM | message detail | #436 |
| Odds are, Bowser’s going to end up winning this,
but I’m going to risk it with Ryu. The fighting game fanbase has proven
its worth time and again here, and Mario characters haven’t exactly
came out and impressed, minus Yoshi. Probably not the best bet, but
HADOKEN it is. Auron – 34% Ryu – 28% Bowser – 27% Shadow – 11% Bracket: Auron > Bowser Vote: Auron Yoblazer’s Analysis Ah, we've reached our best Round 2 match yet. Unlike the previous three, which featured one power player and several midcarders/weaklings battling it out for the scraps, this one features a relatively even distribution of some impressive power. Also unlike many other matches, I feel this one is good enough and the entrants strong enough to each warrant their own detailed analysis, and that's something I don't usually do. I feel that we'll be treated to a little bit of everything today, so without further yapping from yours truly, let's jump in. First on the list is Auron, the fan-favorite badass from Final Fantasy X and the bracket maker favorite in the match. Auron earned his reputation as the odds-on favorite by virtue of his excellent 2006 results, and he proved to be all too deserving in his first match this year. In said match, he spanked his competition (including Shadow, who some people thought would keep it relatively close) to nigh-Noble 9 levels. Of his three opponents, only Ryu has an outside shot at stealing some support via rSFF or the newfangled LFF or whatever you guys are calling it. However, I sincerely doubt this will happen, and actually think the opposite is much more likely, so Auron is looking golden en route to another first place win. Auron's two main competitors are the tough guys who managed an awful lot of controversy last round, Street Fighter's Ryu and Super Mario's Bowser. Their opening match was expected to be a close one, and I believe Bowser was a slight favorite, but Ryu shocked everyone and went on to claim first place by nearly 8%. The panic alarms sounded for the Koopa King, as he was called everything from overrated, to an SFF disgrace, to a sitting duck in Round 2. However, is it really all true? Could Bowser really have dropped from the overwhelming favorite to a significant underdog based on one match? Maybe so, but I'm not buying it. Not at all. In the first round, Ryu was the lucky beneficiary of a three-way fanbase split. I know that hindsight is 20/20 and that his performance was a great one even with the split, but I think people are overestimating him here. To see what I mean, put someone like Luigi in a match with Squall, Aeris, and Kefka and see how well he does. I firmly believe that Bowser will be a much more potent force in this match, as the little buggers who were holding him down (Mewtwo especially) are gone. Conversely, Ryu now has to face Bowser on much more even ground, and Auron also looms in the distance. No, I'm not claiming that Auron's presence in the match will significantly hinder Ryu, but I do believe he can hurt Ryu a bit more than Bowser due to the very nature of both characters' similar appeal. Of course, Bowser is also at a bit of a handicap due to the presence of Shadow the Hedgehog, who many speculate is from a series that's about two steps away from the gate to Nintendoland. While Shadow's presence had me worry for Bowser before, the Sonic team has, by and large, stunk up this contest more than any other big series. Knuckles got spanked by Yoshi twice in a row, Tails lost to The Boss, and Sonic looked unworthy of the title "Noble 9er" against Sub-Zero. Either the series has lost a step since last year, Sonic characters underperform when a Nintendo character is in the same poll, or Sonic characters just suck in this format. Either way, things are looking ugly for Shadow, and I think he'll answer the ugly call by giving us an equally ugly performance. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:23:39 PM | message detail | #437 |
| In fact, and I think this opinion might get
challenged by anyone actually reading this, but I'm not so sure if
Shadow is even a bigger liability for Bowser than Auron is for Ryu. Ryu
has the infamous and well earned moniker of "Mr. Consistency" in that
he never, ever gets blown out, but those performances are usually
against characters who are his polar opposite. His last match against a
guy with a similar design and appeal was against Solid Snake in 2003.
While that was another fine Ryu performance, it's been four years, and
I speculate just how well he can hold up against a guy like Auron here
and now. Auron wins it, Bowser in second, Ryu close behind in third,
and Shadow stinks it up in last. Auron - 30% Bowser - 28% Ryu - 26% Shadow - 16% Lopen’s Analysis Ah. Seems like ol' Classic look has his work much more cut out for him this time. Without Mewtwo and Toad to hold Bowser's arms, how will Ryu kick the crap out of him undisturbed? How will he obtain the perfect victory in this fight? Well, it won't be quite so undisturbed this time. Ryu will have to fight. But he has the fighter's spirit, here. And in this contest, the fighter's spirit amounts to never falling below 40% in a 1v1 match. Possibly because he's never fought a strong enough opponent, but he's gone up against 4 NNers. Do I think his fanbase is dedicated? Absolutely. And in this contest, I think that helps a lot. Looking at round 1, it's looking good for him. Even without the Nintendo split I take Ryu to win in that match, just not nearly as decisively. People preaching things like 70-80% overlap are offa their gourds... even in Toad's case, I think. Hell, I'm proof that Ryu got hurt by it too... my voting hierarchy in that match was Toad > Mewtwo > Ryu > Bowser! He's got my vote this round, though! Seeing how poorly Shadow did, how he let a Pyramid and random RE guy escape the doubling from him, I don't think he's much of a threat. However, it doesn't just speak for him, but Auron. Auron only got 40% on that four pack. Surely, this is great, you say. Breaking 40% on a four pack with Shadow in it, that's impressive! This man can't be beat! Well you know what, I am not very convinced. Shadow was looking pretty weak with his 26%, you ask me. So what, Auron's up against two pansies and a weaker looking Shadow and he gets but 43%? Give me Ryu's performance perhaps more impressive, even with the Nintendo overlap. So my bracket has Auron > Ryu. I'm tempted to say Ryu > Auron right now. I think I'll stick with my bracket, but I have no idea. I don't think Bowser has much of a chance, though... unless Ryu > Bowser > Auron is how it crumbles, I suppose. Lopen's prediction: Auron - 30.75% Ryu - 30.00% Bowser - 25.25% Akuba the Hedgehog - 14.00% Karma Hunter’s Analysis Auron One of the strongest Square powerhouses, combining the best of FFX and KH, continues his run through the bracket. The consensus favorite to come in first here. Shadow the Hedgehog After his long hiatus, Shadow both hints at the weakness of Sonic characters here and shows his own brand of suckitude - losing updates to Pyramid Head? The longest shot here by... well, a longshot. Ryu Powering through last round, Ryu hints at both the relative strength of fighting game characters in this format and his own dedicated fanbase. How impressive will he be today? Bowser Heh. The once favorite to progress last round, that was before the devastating effect of SFF could be fully appreciated in this format. Being doubly drained, can Bowser bounce back here? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:24:35 PM | message detail | #438 |
| This match could go a lot of ways, but I'm content
to stick with the cookie on this one. I can't see anyone challenging
Auron's dominance here. He met and surpassed expectations for most,
dominating his fourpack while Shadow faltered immensely. And while
Ryu's fourpack was undoubtedly stronger, when three of your opponents
draw from the same fanbase you're bound to look good. If there's any
chink in Auron's armor, it's his picture today, and it would be hard to
see him not placing if you didn't give him a picture at all. Shadow remains the least likely to progress. Once a sexy upset pick, much conventional wisdom has been defied. The Sonic fanbase is not as hardcore as many would think and seems to falter in this format, Knuckles looks to have been overrated in 2k5, and the last time we saw the hedgehog he lost to Tidus. He looks the best out of anyone here, but he dominated the picture that much more last round only to lose updates to - well, you get the point. That leaves Ryu and Bowser fighting it out for second - what a coincidence. Bowser's chances are much better this time around without him being drained, and the sole Nintendo representative never hurts anyone. But it doesn't necessarily give you the win, Ness proved, and Bowser's lack of a hardcore fanbase seems to be hurting him (and was hinted in the favorite Mario polls, to boot). But he is almost assured to be naturally stronger than the Street Fighter, and I feel confident in him progressing. Having a hardcore fanbase isn't as important as having a fanbase dedicated to your company - and while Bowser isn't a big FAVORITE among his fanbase, people do CARE about him. Whereas no one cares about Ness outside of EB fans. *this writeup may have been influenced by Ryu getting the only bad picture I've ever seen of him in his contest career Karma Hunter's Vote: Auron. NOW IS THE TIME TO VOTE! Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Auron with 30%, Bowser with 26%, Ryu with 25%, Shadow the Hedgehog with 19% Upset Probability: 80% upsets upsets everywhere, and not a drop to drink Auron > Ryu is the most likely one, look at that Street Fighter go! I could even see Ryu > Auron, much more easily than Bowser > Auron. Shadow upsetting Bowser wouldn't be *terribly* surprising, though certainly depressing. I could talk about this all day, but I have a string of disappointing writeups to uphold! Transience’s Analysis now *this* is a match. four guys who all had a shot pre-contest to place, though our Nintendo and Square fear left a lot of people picking Auron and Bowser. Shadow looks to be a lock for fourth, but the other three could finish in any order and it wouldn't be that weird. Auron Auron seems like a lock to place. he rocked Shadow's world in round 1, has all that fan-favourite appeal that makes him a beast in this format and has nothing holding him back. well, except for that picture. what IS that? eh, it won't matter. Bowser one of the bigger disappointments in round 1, even though you can make excuses for him. two other Nintendo guys, one from his own series, slowed him down.. but he lost several updates to Mewtwo. seeing two N characters leeching from Bowser wasn't unexpected, but watching him lose percentage with the afterschool vote was depressing. Bowser has the ability to make a comeback here, but with how fighting game have been impressing.. Ryu one of the stars of round 1, Ryu rocked the guy who beat him 59-41 just two years prior. with fighting game characters impressing left and right, can Ryu place here.. or even take first place? this threesome can go in any order - three separated, sizable fanbases with characters that aren't all that far away strength-wise. Ryu has to hope that his fanbase will stick with him here, but after Sub-Zero did so awesome vs. Sonic and Scorpion rocked Frog, does he even have to worry? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:25:17 PM | message detail | #439 |
|
Shadow lol well, let's start with first place. I like Auron -- Shadow may be weak or flops in this format or whatever, but Auron beating him *that* hard plus his loyal fanbase tells me something. Auron nearly avoided SFF from Sephiroth and came within 2% of Bowser on Cloud in 2003. that tells me he's good the goods for this match. second place? I had both of these guys to round 4 for equal parts of the bracketmaking period, but ended up siding with Bowser because I felt his Nintendo roots would carry him through. I'm sticking with that -- Ryu's impressing more than ever, his fanbase is a bit more devoted than Bowser's, but Bowser's the stronger of the two. he's disappointed ever since that crazy 2005 where he did better than Mario on Sephiroth and came within inches of breaking the noble nine, but I think he'll be able to hang on here. I won't be surprised at all if he ends up third though.. or first. oh, and go Ryu! I guess I should address the picture quick -- he's recognizable, even if he looks kind of bad. I don't think it matters. Auron's picture worries me more, honestly. Auron's picture -- what? Bowser's not getting leeched dry Ryu won't repeat transience's prediction: Auron with 31.25%, Bowser with 28.79%, Ryu with 28.01%, Shadow with 11.95% Crew Consensus: In a 4-3 split, Auron > Bowser is the favorite over Auron > Ryu. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:26:38 PM | message detail | #440 |
|
Blast, I'm low-man for Auron. I felt like I was shortchanging him, and it could come back and bite me in the buttock. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Midget_Fetish | Posted 10/7/2007 9:27:52 PM | message detail | #441 |
|
No Bowser > Auron picks? and a couple Auron > Ryu picks? This surprises me. --- SensiShadeSlaye v.7.7 |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:32:22 PM | message detail | #442 |
|
People preaching things like 70-80% overlap are offa their gourds... even in Toad's case Cloud had a 70% overlap with Sephiroth against Link and Snake. Why can't Bowser match that with Toad when Ryu is his only competition? --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:32:39 PM | message detail | #443 |
|
Answer: The fighting spirit. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| th3l3fty | Posted 10/7/2007 9:33:37 PM | message detail | #444 |
|
Whoever fills in better pick Bowser > Auron! (Probably the only chance we'd have at a point!) --- Knight of the Cross of Sir Chris' Court I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 9:36:38 PM | message detail | #445 |
|
Except that it's going to be Auron > Bowser, so no, they shouldn't. <_< ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/7/2007 9:38:52 PM | message detail | #446 |
|
DpOblivion's Unofficial Guest Analysis: How come I didn't get the memo that Auron was stronger than Bowser? Ugh. Damn you all. As you can tell, I have Bowser beating out Auron here, in my bracket at least. I really don't have anything to back that up now either. Bowser underperformed bad in his first round match. Yes, there was a lot of SFF there, but I still think he underperformed considering. So I suppose Auron will take first here, especially if there's some truth to the argument that Sonic characters take from Mario characters. As for 2nd, Ryu did good in his first round match against Bowser/Nintendo, but he didn't do that good. With Bowser being SFFed by two Nintendo characters, especially a Bowser who sucks with SFF involved, 1 36-28 difference is certainly overcomeable (is that a word?) for Bowser in this match. I still have hope for Bowser to take first though. That Nintendo vote can be mighty powerful. However, with Shadow possibly taking votes, the great support behind Ryu, and Auron being a very likeable character from FFX, it's going to be tough. With the masses supporting an Auron victory, I really have nothing but hope to say that Bowser will take first. DpOblivion's bracket says: Bowser > Auron Confidence Rating: 30% DpOblivion's prediction is: Auron > Bowser Confidence Rating: 60% Auron - 29% Bowser - 28% Ryu - 25% Shadow - 18% --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/7/2007 9:48:09 PM | message detail | #447 |
|
Blast, I'm low-man for Auron. I felt like I was shortchanging him, and it could come back and bite me in the buttock. Not anymore, yay! *scratches out "Unofficial" from my post* --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/8/2007 11:05:37 AM | message detail | #448 |
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I shouldn't be allowed to predict percentages anymore. At least I got Ryu kinda close! Although in the wrong position.... --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/8/2007 7:06:56 PM | message detail | #449 |
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Marcus Fenix.........15.59% 22782 Kefka.......................13.24% 19348 Cloud Strife..............56.1% 81956 Revolver Ocelot.....15.06% 22006 TOTAL VOTES....................146092 44.53% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 7.38% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 47.09% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 16.15% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 24; Half Correct - 9; Barely Correct - 2 It was an uphill battle for Fenix, but he went from last to second to move on to Round 3. Meanwhile, Cloud dominates all of them. Crew Prediction Challenge - HM gets the point Lopen - 6 Yoblazer - 6 Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi) - 5 KH - 4 HM - 4 Moltar - 3 Tran - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets points for Cloud and Marcus, Moltar and HM get points for Ocelot and Lopen gets a point for Kefka. HM - 27 Yoblazer - 25 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "4", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "2", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "2", Bio "2") - 24 Ulti - 18 Lopen - 18 Tran - 16 Moltar - 16 KH - 12 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/8/2007 7:13:06 PM | message detail | #450 |
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*post so the analyses start on the next page* --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
