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Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew

DpObliVion | Posted 9/7/2007 10:08:34 PM | message detail | #251
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 10:08:44 PM | message detail | #252
As a final note, it'll be *damn* hilarious if Zolom somehow manages to squeak into third place (maybe even second? <_<) because of the typical odd FF7 SFF that can happen.

Cloud [68.25%]
Jill Valentine [17.35%]
Revolver Ocelot [11.11%]
Midgar Zolom [3.29%]

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Cloud Strife -- 58%
Revolver Ocelot -- 19%
Jill Valentine -- 18%
Midgar Zolom -- 5%

Man, it’s a shame that the Midgar Zolom was put in a match with Cloud. I would’ve liked to see how insane the FFVII fanbase is. You just know he would have actually done pretty respectable if he didn’t have to get SFFed so bad. Sure, he’s a joke on Board 8, but you just know... you just know... you got lucky, Link!

Zolom aside, the second place match here is brutal. Choosing between Jill and Ocelot is far harder than it should be. Under normal circumstances, I’d be fine taking Jill and not worrying too much about it, but this format makes everything complicated. The only reason I’m actually taking Ocelot here is because I like him more. Jill is probably the safer bet, but it’s so close that I wouldn’t feel any better going with her.

The big problem with Ocelot, though, is that he was only able to pull 55% against Nemesis, who by all rights should be a good deal weaker than Jill. Still, Cloud being here does present problems for Jill, but it presents those same problems for Ocelot, too, I suppose.

So yeah, I wanted to go with Jill here, but I didn’t really feel it would’ve been any better a choice. It’s still impossible to say who wins this, so I just stuck with Ocelot as a “gut” pick. Guess we’ll see how it goes.

Bracket: Cloud > Ocelot
Vote: Ocelot

Yoblazer’s Analysis

After (dare I say it?) the most unpredictable, exciting start in contest history, one of our two most dominant Character Battle forces is ready to stand, draw his trusty airplane wing, and tell everyone not named Link to shut the **** up. Since 2002, Cloud Strife has amassed himself an amazing set of accomplishments and accolades. He is commonly referred to as the second-strongest entrant, the 2003 Character Battle champion, the only character to defeat Link, and the lone Noble 9er in the YOBLAZER HAS NEVER EVER EVER VOTED FOR YOU club. Simply amazing. Whereas Cloud's status as winner is clear (and watching him will be interesting simply to see how high he can go), the battle for second place is completely up in the air.

His opponents are FFVII's Midgar Zolom, Metal Gear Solid's Revolver Ocelot, and Resident Evil's Jill Valentine. While Zolom's place in the bracket must surely bring a smile to many a Board 8er, he is, sadly, completed wasted against Cloud. Who knows, he might have been able to ride his dual joke entry/FFVII status to a surprising result if placed somewhere else, but he's assured nothing but fourth place against his own game's protagonist. Despite this, he may still get some support. For the love of god, just look at him.

Ocelot and Jill, on the other hand, each can ride Cloud's coattails into the next round. Unfortunately for me, these two are among my favorite characters, and just picking one is kinda like choosing which child to save and which to feed to the wolves. We've only seen Ocelot in 2005: a few times during the villains contest and once in Character Battle IV. I love the guy to death, but everyone knows those Villains stats are gimped and that his loss to Pac-Man was one of the most disappointing performances ever. People claim his terribly drab, unappealing picture played a large part in his crushing defeat, but guess what; he has a similar picture today. He may have a small following, but I don't think much of it will survive Cloud's cannibalism, and his past results don't do enough for me to pick him here.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 10:09:15 PM | message detail | #253
The ever-awesome, ever-sexy Jill Valentine, whom I lovingly call my "Jilly Bean," looks like the better pick to me. Her contest history strikes me as more impressive than Ocelot's (I doubt he could practically tie Peach after losing to Pac-Man), her picture is infinitely more appealing, and my gut tells me her fans won't abandon her quite as much in the face of Cloud's onslaught. Do it like a bazooka shot to the face, Jilly.

Cloud Strife - 59%
Jill Valentine - 17%
Revolver Ocelot - 15%
Midgar Zolom - 9%

Lopen’s Analysis

Shouldn't Sephy have been stuck with the Zolom? Bah. Anyway, this is a fun little match... "who will Cloud kick the crap out of the least?" Zolom's got the joke vote... but Cloud doesn't like jokes that don't involve moseying, and so the fans of the joke who like Cloud won't like the joke. That guy's done.

Ocelot? He loves reloading in battle. How does that translate here? Nothing beats the feeling after the click of slamming your bullet into the hot greased chamber near Ocelot's name. People catch onto that, and will vote Ocelot in turn.

Jill Valentine? She makes sandwiches..? The hell? That ain't gonna resist a beating. Cloud can beat your ass while eating a sandwich. Perhaps three, even.

Okay, honestly, now. Ocelot and Jill are probably about equal in these contests... with Jill having a bit of an edge as far as impressing. But, but! We've seen FF7 steal tons of fans from MGS, RE, and... itself... in these polls. So "base strength" be damned, this really does come down to who gets beat down the least by Cloud. He will destroy these fools. My money is on him destroying Ocelot the least, because I think Ocelot's appearances in MGS2, The Twin Snakes and especially MGS3 help remove him from Cloud's dominion, the original PS. Granted, one of these is a remake, and two are from the PS2, which probably doesn't help much in the way of dominion removal... but it's better than what Jill has. (MvC2 is it, right?)

Lopen's prediction:

Cloud – 66.11%
Revolver Ocelot – 15.89%
Jill Valentine – 11.04%
Midgar Zolom – 6.96%

Transience’s Analysis

this is one of my least favourite matches. the Zolom is absolutely wasted (not that he had much of a chance in the first place.. but to put him in the same division as Cloud?), and the Jill/Ocelot pick is basically worth two rounds in my mind. I think both of them would edge out Kefka or Marcus in round 2, so this pick is actually worth a lot more than just 2 points.

obviously, Cloud is going to dominate this poll. Zolom will get his joke votes (but will anybody even get the joke?), and Jill/Ocelot will be left fighting for scraps. there's a good chance that there's a bit of a fanbase overlap there with both hailing from the PS1 (Cloud, too). MGS did beat Resident Evil silly, but MGS is obviously stronger than Ocelot while Jill is from RE2, probably the most hailed PS1 RE title.

Jill seems like the stronger character of the two. 50% on Peach is more impressive than 49% on Pac-Man, and Ocelot only managed 55% on Nemesis in the Villains Contest. I'm sure Jill can outdo Nemesis by a good amount. on the other hand, Ocelot seems more like a "fan-favourite" to me, and his fanbase probably won't abandon him in a format like this. I really have no idea which way to go here, but I'm gonna go with strength over a hardcore fanbase. give me Jill.

Cloud crushes the field
Jill sandwich vs hand gesture
sandwich reigns supreme

transience's prediction: Cloud - 59.44%, Jill - 17.88%, Ocelot - 16.99%, Midgar Zolom - 5.69%
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 10:10:15 PM | message detail | #254
Guest’s Analysis - Zylo the Wolf

Hi Board 8. This is Zylo the Wolf trying to beat the ”crue” on how the upcoming match with Cloud Strife, Jill Valentine, Revolver Ocelot and our loving Midgar Zolom will go. I won’t give you guys a wall of text so let me analyze each character.

Cloud Strife: What have Cloud done in the contest before? For starters, he almost beat Mario in 2002, and in 2003 he won the whole thing. After that, Cloud has always beat the hell out of everyone until he reached Link. Everyone knows that not only will Cloud win this fourpack by far, but he will also get to the final without any trouble at all. I bet that he takes this fourpack with about 64%

Jill Valentine: Jill beat Kirby and Bomberman in 2002 (Thanks to REmake just being released) and then outdid Luigi on Squall in 2003. In 2004 she was in one of the best matches of all time with Ryu Hayabusa where it took her two days to just lose with 27 votes. Have CjayC decided to not close the poll at the right time, she would have won that day. She needed the female bracket to get back in the contest where she lost to Peach, again with 27 votes, despite having a +1400 lead at one time. The after school vote wasn’t very nice to her and she lost to Peach, but once again she was close to make an epic comeback. How will she do this year?

Revolver Ocelot: I don’t understand why everyone started to like Ocelot after Metal Gear Solid 3? In MGS 1 and 2 he’s a skilled revolverman who has a cool Russian accent. IN MGS 3, he’s much younger, and he no longer sounds like he’s from his Motherland. He also can’t manage to do anything right in that game. Add his lame poses and I have no idea why anyone likes him in MGS 3, when he actually was a interesting villain in MGS 1 and 2. Oh but I should talk about what he have done in the contest. He won over the worst character of all time (Nemesis) and Dr Wily but almost got doubled by Bowser. Then he lost to Pac-Man, will the new format allow him to get past round 1?

Midgar Zolom: Final Fantasy VII is my favourite game of all time, and I took me months to realize where this Midgar Zolom comes from after his so popular ascii art reached Board 8. I always catch a chocobo right away and never tries to battle this snake. It’s great to see Midgar Zolom in this match, but one of his opponents are by far one of the worst. 9/10 who even knows who he is will vote for Cloud over him, and the others are from Board 8. Expect Midgar Zolom to set a new record of low vote totals. Tanner will look like a powerhouse compared to this guy..

So the big question about this match is.... Jill or Ocelot? If you ask me, Jill should be the favourite in this match. Forget any kind of stats and see it in this way: Each character in this fourpack had their finest moment on the Playstation. Cloud and Jill are the main characters in two popular games, Ocelot is not even the main villain in Meta l Gear Solid. His chances are not zero, but Cloud beats him, and he doesn’t have any kind of fanbase except for the MGS fans to rely on against any of the others. He should end up above Midgar Zolom, but who knows if he will beat Jill....

Zylo’s Prediction:

Cloud: 64%
Jill: 20%
Ocelot: 13%
Midgar Zolom: 3%

Crew Consenus: Cloud > Jill takes the slight majority in the Crew over Cloud > Ocelot.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 10:11:06 PM | message detail | #255
And yeah, I haven't gotten KH's write-up yet. So if you're reading this, you can just throw it in the topic.
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Kefka/Marcus/Tom/Zelos - Bracket: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Zelos (14/16)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 10:15:18 PM | message detail | #256
I'm susprised at the Ocelot support. If I were a betting man, I'd say Ulti has this point, because he's pretty damn close to what I'm thinking.

"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 10:20:07 PM | message detail | #257
I just realized my percents are way off, but meh.
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Cloud/Jill/Zolom/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (16/20)
DpObliVion | Posted 9/7/2007 10:23:26 PM | message detail | #258
DpOblivion's Unofficial Supposedly-Quick-But-Apparently-Not Analysis:

Bye bye perfect bracket....only 1 point gained yesterday, way to go Kefka/Tom. I need to bounce back now, problem is, I'm not all that confident in this one either. Obviously Cloud is taking 1st place, that's a no-brainer. It looks like the favorite to take 2nd place is Jill Valentine, though of course I have Revolver Ocelot. Poor Midgar Zolom takes last.

Justification for why Jill beats out Ocelot? Because Ocelot is weak in these things. Hell, he lost to Pac-Man.

However, I don't think the case is all that strong for Jill, either. She's the anti-Frog, if you will, she has a tendency of falling just short, including a loss to the overrated (what the hell was that #3 seed that one year?) Ryu Hayabusa.

But yes, I suppose Jill is considered stronger. In Ocelot's defense though, Pac-Man gets a great amount of the casual vote, everyone knows Pac-Man. Not everyone knows Ocelot. And not everyone knows Jill either.

I may be simplifying this too much, but I see this coming down to Resident Evil vs. Metal Gear Solid. While Resident Evil is quite popular, Metal Gear Solid has the advantage there. And coming off of Solid Snake's best year, and the hype building for Metal Gear Solid 4, I see Revolver Ocelot topping Jill Valentine here. Should be close though....27 votes?

Honestly though, thinking about doing this write-up a couple hours ago, I was prepared to go against my bracket and predict Jill finishing 2nd....but that's no fun.

As for the percentages, once again mine are way off the norm. Cloud is obviously a huge powerhouse, 2nd best performer in the contests. But some factors here lead me to believe that he won't do much better than 50%. First of all, Midgar Zolom will be taking votes away from the FF crowd for his joke value. Secondly, the bracket voters could be big here with such a close fight for 2nd, as voting for Cloud is quite meaningless. Third, the ones fighting for that 2nd spot are from series' with large fanbases. I have about 60% voting for the Final Fantasy combination, and 40% voting for Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid combined. In my crazy mind, that doesn't seem too unreasonable. Besides, Samus and Mega Man were just barely above 50% with weaker competition and no SFF.

DpOblivion's bracket says: Cloud > Ocelot

DpOblivion's prediction says: Cloud > Ocelot (maybe)

Confidence Rating: 35%

Cloud Strife - 54%
Revolver Ocelot - 20%
Jill Valentine - 19%
Midgar Zolom - 7%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 17/20 : (
DpObliVion | Posted 9/7/2007 10:24:59 PM | message detail | #259
And damn, I wanted to get a post in when there were 249 posts in the topic, to get the analyses started on the next page, but I was 35 seconds late....

: (

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 17/20 : (
DpObliVion | Posted 9/7/2007 10:33:10 PM | message detail | #260
Can’t believe he’s the next most popular Final Fantasy 7 character behind Cloud, Seph, Vincent and Aeris (am I forgetting someone here? Nah, this looks good).


Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 17/20 : (
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/7/2007 10:34:34 PM | message detail | #261
BT and I have been on the same page all contest.

Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed:
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/7/2007 10:36:25 PM | message detail | #262
Where *is* this Ocelot support coming from? Jill would never lose to Pac-Man, and Ocelot would never go 50-50 with Peach.

Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed:
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 10:39:03 PM | message detail | #263

Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 10:39:20 PM | message detail | #264
MGS did beat Resident Evil silly, but MGS is obviously stronger than Ocelot while Jill is from RE2, probably the most hailed PS1 RE title.

Actually, Jill appears in the original RE, RE3, and REMake. She's not in RE2.
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Draco1214 | Posted 9/7/2007 10:39:55 PM | message detail | #265
Because FF7/MGS/RE share a fanbase and it comes down to who gets SFF'd less by Cloud. I think Ocelot has the more dedicated fanbase, so he wins.
Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/7/2007 10:41:19 PM | message detail | #266
Yeah, it's Revolver ****ing Ocelot, baby. Everyone who is anyone is voting for him.
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2007 10:48:41 PM | message detail | #267
Karma Hunter's Constantly Late Analysis

Another day, another debated match... the 1st and 4th places are obvious, belonging to the FF7 duo (Zolom > Cloud yo !!). But how about the second and third slots? Jill Valentine, participant in arguably the most exciting match last year, and MGS returner Revolver Ocelot square off here. I think Revolver fares better in this format... but he's stuck with a crap melting pic here, and Jill is 1.) significantly stronger and 2.) probably won't suffer from as much overlap as Cloud. It's not certain, but I feel safe with her here.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Revolver Ocelot. THROUGH THIS ARM
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Cloud with 58%, Jill Valentine with 20%, Revolver Ocelot with 15%, Midgar Zolom with 7%

Upset Potential: 30%

Of course, all I said could easily turn over on the Jill sandwich... and Ocelot's fan favoritism, perhaps a touch of FF/RE overlap (or even MGS/RE overlap), or Ocelot plain just getting stronger since his iffy 2k5 year could turn this match on its head. I'm not expecting it, but it's as likely as anything else that's happened...
delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 10:59:00 PM | message detail | #268

Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Cloud/Jill/Zolom/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (16/20)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 11:49:44 PM | message detail | #269
...oh god dammit, it looks like I accidentally posted my oracle prediction in this topic yesterday instead of the actual one. Sorry Moltar!

Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
transience | Posted 9/7/2007 11:55:10 PM | message detail | #270
Jill's not in RE2? augh! whoops.

you can see how much I play those games
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
feartheducky | Posted 9/8/2007 12:36:28 AM | message detail | #271
Note to Self: I own you.
DpObliVion | Posted 9/8/2007 12:42:42 AM | message detail | #272
Oh yeah, Ocelot, I'm not so crazy after all!

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 17/20 : (
Lugia2 | Posted 9/8/2007 8:53:30 AM | message detail | #273
I really couldn't see how Jill would, erm, "win." I mean, sure my Phoenix Wright> GFNW seemed fishy, but...well...

It's worth noting that Snake's in SSBB, which might have SOME effect. Then again, there's a reason why I just do this for fun these days.

Oh, and if Tifa can't even pass Zolom, then she may have some problems. You know, like passing Aeris >_>.
VIVA LA REVOLU-er, Wii!! Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much. Lugia2-1246-5250-1185
Master Moltar | Posted 9/8/2007 2:13:15 PM | message detail | #274
Kefka..................31.99% 38712
Marcus Fenix....36.79% 44524
Tom Nook.........18.69% 22614
Zelos Wilder.....12.53% 15164
TOTAL VOTES...........121014

28.55% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly.
14.27% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly.

27.59% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd.
57.62% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st.

Looks like Kefka was the huge bracket favorite once again! Didn't stop him from getting stomped by Marcus though. Kefka started out strong, but completely collapsed during the day, allowing Fenix to surge ahead. Meanwhile, Zelos performs below most people's expectations, and Nook does respectable.

Today, Cloud is owning faces, and Ocelot is in 2nd.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Only our Guest had the correct pick today.

Guest (Turtle) - 1
Lopen - 1
Yoblazer - 1
Tran - 1
KH - 1
Moltar - 0
Ulti - 0
HM - 0

Crew Accuracy Challenge - KH gets 2 points for Kefka and Zelos, HM and Guest get one for Fenix, and Yo gets one for Nook.

Yoblazer - 4
HM - 4
Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp) - 4
KH - 3
Lopen - 3
Ulti - 3
Moltar - 1
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Cloud/Jill/Zolom/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (16/20)
NominateSerge | Posted 9/8/2007 3:35:19 PM | message detail | #275
Where *is* this Ocelot support coming from? Jill would never lose to Pac-Man, and Ocelot would never go 50-50 with Peach.

...Haven't you realized by now that head-to-head strength isn't the sole deciding factor? I wouldn't dare take Axel to beat Frog either. I don't care what that match the other day says.
Vote for Serge.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:37:43 PM | message detail | #276
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 7 – Auron vs. Chris Redfield vs. Pyramid Head vs. Shadow the Hedgehog

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy X
Seed in 2003: 8
Seed in 2004: 3
Seed in 2005: 2
Seed in 2006: 3
Lost in 2003 to Cloud in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Sephiroth in Round 3
Lost in 2005 to Ganondorf in Round 2
Lost in 2006 to Crono in Round 3

Auron’s a pretty decent competitor, and he is back to win some more matches.

Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil

He’ll be cool once RE5 comes out.

Pyramid Head
Game/Series Known From: Silent Hill 2

Remember him, from the villains contest? Didn’t think so.

Game/Series Known From: Sonic
Seed in 2003: 9
Seed in 2004: 9
Lost in 2003 to Mario in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Tidus in Round 1

The bestest Sonic character FINALLY gets in another contest.

After years of trying to get him back, I am so glad to see Shadow back in the bracket. His loss in 2004 is such a horrible way to go out. Now he’s back and can get redemption! Go Shadow, show the world that 45% on Mario was not a (big) fluke!

Oh, there’s a match to talk about too. Well, this is one of the easiest ones we’ve had so far, so there isn’t too much to say. Pyramid Head doesn’t stand a chance here, as we’ve already seen him get stomped by Bowser. Chris won’t be all that yet either, especially with Leon hogging the spotlight because of RE4.

Auron and Shadow are, by far, the two strongest competitiors in this fourpack. We haven’t seen Shadow since 2004, but looking at other Sonic characters, he should be a bit stronger now. However, Auron is also pretty darn strong himself. He came out of 2006 looking very impressive, with strong wins over Alucard and Sub-Zero before putting up 45% on Crono. It looks like his big role in KH2 boosted him up a bit, and he should still remain pretty strong.

So Auron and Shadow take this one pretty convincingly. Depending on how well those two do will also give us a good look at what happens next round. Now that’s going to be a fourpack to watch.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Auron > Shadow > Chris > Pyramid Head

Moltar’s Prediction is: Auron: 40% - Shadow: 35% - Chris: 15% - Pyramid Head: 10%

Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

This match is pretty similar to the first match of the contest in that the top two characters are very obvious, but the order of them is not. Barring Chris Redfield being above Jill Valentine's level in contest strength (very, very unlikely), Auron and Shadow are going to advance. Pyramid Head is a nice novelty item, but proven fodder. How he gets in twice and James Sunderland zero times is beyond me, but Inviso or FFDragon would have the answer to that before I would.

Shadow had a great year in 2003, took a year off and then lost an odd match to Tidus in 2005. Shadow's rating might be too high in 2005, given that both Kirby and Bowser overperformed in their respective losses that year. Shadow himself overperformed against Mario in 2003 as well. (Note from Moltar: Shadow/Tidus was actually in 2004)

It seems pretty obvious. Shadow is overrated in two sets of stats, and already lost to Tidus. How will be best a historically consistent Auron if he couldn't beat Tidus? And spare me the Tidus > Auron stuff, because it would be as ridiculous as predicting Vaan > Balthier. Shadow has to hope that Auron gets a lot of votes sucked away from him by Redfield in order to win the poll, which is actually reasonable given that Shadow himself has no one to compete with for SFF votes, but I don't think Auron could get knocked down enough to worry about losing this poll. I'd be very surprised if Shadow won this; if it were heads-up, I'd see it as a 57-43 type of match. I don't see this being much different.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:38:15 PM | message detail | #277
Auron [37.00%]
Shadow the Hedgehog [30.00%]
Chris Redfield [23.00%]
Pyramid Head [10.00%]

Got bored and felt like making round percentages =p

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Auron -- 50%
Shadow the Hedgehog -- 25%
Chris Redfield -- 15%
Pyramid Head -- 10%

Auron domination even with decent competition in Shadow? Believe, baby! I’m convinced that Auron’s going to do really well in this contest. Part of it is that FFX poll that Auron just destroyed, part of it is that Auron has a base that gets stronger and stronger each year (hello there 45% on Crono), and then there’s the fact that Auron kicks ass. This is probably a lot higher than most people on the Crew -- higher than most people would anticipate -- but I’m sticking to my guns here.

Shadow’s not bad, but I’m hardly convinced of what he’s worth. Sorry, beating Wario and losing to Tidus don’t inspire confidence. He’s had exactly one impressive match, and that was against Mario in ’03, which was about as wonky a year as any. It’s not to say Shadow is weak, but I don’t hold him up there like a lot folks do. He may do well in this format, and maybe I’m not anticipating it, but eh, I’ll bank on Auron rocking faces.

If only I was hardcore enough to take Auron with 90% here... I salute the man with those cojones.

Bracket: Auron > Shadow
Vote: Auron

Yoblazer’s Analysis

I am writing for you today as a broken man. For the first time ever, I'm coming off three straight incorrect predictions, and yowch! I can't say it doesn't sting. I'm hoping that today's relatively easy match and sooth my (and many other predictors', I'm sure) pain, but if not, then man, this is truly one hell of a tough contest.

Our fourpack for the day is comprised of FFX's Auron, Resident Evil's Chris Redfield, Silent Hill 2's Pyramid Head, and Sonic's very own Shadow the Hedgehog. Chris and Pyramid Head are survival horror characters, and while that makes them A-OK in my book, it's not necessarily good for winning matches. As we all saw in the Villains Contest, Pyramid Head is complete fodder, and while Chris may be a contest rookie, it's safe to say that his absolute ceiling is among the likes of his fellow zombie blasters, Jill and Claire (although probably a bit lower). Neither of them stand a chance at moving on.

Obviously, that means Auron and Shadow will move on, but in what order? Most people seem to think the answer is very easy, and I agree. In 2003, Shadow had a once-in-a-lifetime fluke performance against Mario, finishing with about 45%. Expectations were high the next year, but he failed to meet them after a very disappointing loss to Tidus. Apart from being a good deal stronger than Tidus (especially after his Kingdom Hearts II appearance), Auron is the Final Fantasy X fan favorite, and an entrant who consistently gives good performances. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe, he should win this match with room to spare. Auron and Shadow should net well over 70% of the vote between them, with the majority of those going to the swordsman.

Auron - 43%
Shadow - 32%
Chris Redfield - 17%
Pyramid Head - 8%

Lopen’s Analysis

Pharaoh fanboys, unite! The Head Pyramid is here! Let the pyramids march, entombing their enemies! Know that these sands of time have swept over you for too long, lesser pyramids! Know that... oh, I got it backwards... it's just a damn head. Now a pyramid, the real deal... that might get some votes here. I'd totally vote for a pyramid.

Man, really. It's a pyramid head, not the real deal, and some guy who's apparently the brother of a woman best known for incessantly screaming "SHERRY!" and then... your two winners. There's even survival horror fanbase skirmishing going on in there in case you weren't convinced!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:39:06 PM | message detail | #278
Well, you might be a bit confused as to which to take first. Take Auron because Auron > Tidus > Shadow in 2004, and it only gets uglier from there since KH2 boosts are better than some game where Shadow shoots enemies with a bean bag cannon. Sounds good? Sounds good!

(Disclaimer: I'm well aware of Pyramid Head's awesome in Silent Hill 2... that being said, I would still vote the Head Pyramid and his hordes of lesser pyramids over Pyramid Head)

Lopen's Prediction:
Auron – 42.53%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 33.47%
Pyramid Head – 13.09% (because he looks cooler, why not?)
Chris Redfield – 10.91% (maybe I'm underestimating this guy, but I don't give him a pyramid's chance in hell of winning, anyway)

Karma Hunter’s Analysis

I feel like I'm not doing well enough on my writeups this year, but this match isn't giving me much more to work with. The first absolute, total, no-chance-of-missing lock of the contest (guarantee not guaranteed), Auron and Shadow are moving on without a doubt. And Auron > Shadow is nearly absolute. Auron is near-elite, capable of competing with the lower echelon of the Noble Nine. Shadow hasn't been seen in years, but has been a solid midcarder through and through and is likely stronger now - though probably not enough to compete with Auron. Chris Redfield is the "star" of RE in name only, and will be fodder line at best. And Pyramid Head is one of the weakest characters in the history of the contest.

Let's just watch Shadow here and see if he can make anything interesting come Round 2... or maybe even here? Jeez, he looks good in that picture...

Karma Hunter's Vote: Auron. omg such an awesome cliche badass
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Auron with 47%, Shadow with 34%, Chris Redfield with 19%, Pyramid Head with 11%

Upset Potential: 10%

Only one real upset worth thinking of here, and that's only due to Shadow being gone for so long. And the picture... which, despite my fears, shouldn't be a substitute for real strength. And is it just me, or am I the only person who thinks it's such a big standout thing in the first place...? <_<

Transience’s Analysis

this is one of the easiest matches of the contest. Auron and Shadow are a mile ahead of Chris and Pyramid Head. Pyramid Head got massacred in the Villains Contest and I doubt Chris Redfield is worth a whole lot. RE5 hype might mean something, but it's really not going to matter when you're dealing with two proven guys like Auron and Shadow. the only way I can see this being anything other than Auron and Shadow is if everyone holds Shadow personally accountable for the pile of trash that was Shadow the Hedgehog. too bad that's not going to happen -- even Dante boosted after Devil May Cry 2.

Auron's fanbase should give him an easy win here. you can make an argument for Shadow given his new game and the way Sonic characters have boosted since his last appearance, but I just don't see it. Shadow lost to Tidus, who Auron would beat silly. Shadow would almost certainly beat Tidus if there was a rematch, but he's got a long way to go before he reaches the level that Auron's been at lately.

Tidus beat Shadow
Auron would make Tidus cry
Shadow's got no chance

transience's prediction: Auron - 42.65%, Shadow - 32.66%, Chris Redfield - 14.88%, Pyramid Head - 9.81%
Master Moltar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:39:16 PM | message detail | #279
Guest’s Analysis - Adept of Aiur

Hey folks, how ya doing... Adept of Aiur here with a guest analysis (which should be a bit nostalgic for some of you at this point since I've barely posted lately)... Anyway, as most of you already know, this match is basically locked and loaded, and there's almost no dispute on who the winners here are going to be. The two contenders that matter in this match are Auron of FFX and Kingdom Hearts fame and Shadow of Sonic the Hedgehog infamy. The last time Shadow actually appeared in a contest was 3 years ago in 2004 where he just barely lost out to Tidus who proceeded to get beaten on by Mega Man. Since then, the Sonic franchise as a whole has made some strides here and there, most notably with Sonic Rush and Sonic and the Secret Rings... You'll notice (if you're into Sonic games) that Shadow appears in niether of these titles. It's pretty safe to assume (in my mind) that Shadow has stayed mostly consistent since 2004... at best he may have seen a slight boost due to the generally positive steps the Sonic series has been trying to take as of late, particularly with The Secret Rings.

It is a shame, therefore, that Auron appeared in Kingdom Hearts 2 with a major role. If he hadn't I'd be taking Shadow for first place in this match thanks to the similar levels of "maturity' exhibited by his three opponents which could sidetrack votes from Auron (potentially). As it stands, Auron has seen tremendous increases since his KH2 role, notably displayed during last year's contest. Therefore, it is impossible not to relegate Shadow to a comfortable second place standing.

1st place- Auron with 48.36%
2nd place- Shadow the Hedgehog with 41.09%
3rd place- Chris Redfield with 6.92%
4th place- Pyramid Head with 3.63%

Crew Consensus: Auron > Shadow, nuff said
DpObliVion | Posted 9/8/2007 9:22:29 PM | message detail | #280
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Woah....not "Supposedly-Quick-But-Apparently-Not?" Yup, finally an easy one. Crew is unanimous, what more is there to say that hasn't been said?

Auron is a pretty popular FFX character, he beats out Shadow the Hedgehog for 2nd, while Chris Redfield and Pyramid Head are quite a ways back in 3rd and 4th, respectively. All that's left to debate is percentages.

My Chris and Pyramid Head predictions are probably high, but I didn't feel comfortable going too high with Auron, and I think Shadow will fall just short of being able to get 1 out of 3 votes.

DpOblivion's bracket says: Auron > Shadow

DpOblivion's prediction is: Auron > Shadow

Confidence Rating: 99%

Auron - 39%
Shadow - 31%
Chris Redfield - 17%
Pyramid Head - 13%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 21/24
Lopen | Posted 9/9/2007 1:28:45 PM | message detail | #281

I should get a bonus or something because I'm the only one who had PH over Chris Redfield here. Heh heh. Whaddayamean "because he looks cooler" is not valid reasoning? That's the reason he's winning!
Tatl | Posted 9/9/2007 2:24:58 PM | message detail | #282
Okay, I know this is probably way, WAY, WAY too early to be doing this, but I wanted to get in before the next round was decided so I could guarantee a slot...

Duke Nukem
Sonic the Hedgehog

If the contest follows my bracket (which, considering the stats agree with me, it should), this will be the last match of round two. I want it!

It will be a great way for me to try my hand at contest analysis. It's got an easy-to-predict winner, forth-place fodder, and a possible second/third-place tug-o-war.

I'm probably going to have to re-sign up later, but I just wanted to get my voice heard now because I'm usually too late to get the matches I want *coughRoundOneMidnacough*. If you could just put me on some kind of waiting list or something, that would be great. If not, well... Then I guess I'll have to find a way to get to it first.
Midna for 2007 Character Battle Champion!
Go Midna!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 6:38:35 PM | message detail | #283
Cloud Strife............61.24% 87496
Jill Valentine..........15.57% 22248
Midgar Zolom............5.51% 7874
Revolver Ocelot.....17.68% 25256
TOTAL VOTES...................142874

93.00% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly.
52.84% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly.

3.27% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd.
2.45% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st.

Bracketmakers are redeemed today. In what was a hotly debated match on the board, Ocelot ends up taking second with ease. Cloud dominates over everything too.

Today, Auron and Shadow rise over the competition.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Moltar gets the point today, that genius guy.

Moltar - 1
Guest (Turtle) - 1
Lopen - 1
Yoblazer - 1
Tran - 1
KH - 1
Ulti - 0
HM - 0

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets a point for Cloud, Yo gets a point for Jill, Tran gets 2 points for Ocelot and Zolom

Yoblazer - 5
HM - 4
Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp) - 4
Tran - 3
KH - 3
Lopen - 3
Ulti - 3
Moltar - 2
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Chris/PH/Shadow - Bracket: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (20/24)
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 6:49:21 PM | message detail | #284
Damnit, I wish I was a guest for last night :( I had 40 - 25 - 15 - 15 for my percentages.
SC2k7: 19/24, tied for 541st
Today's Pick: Auron > Shadow
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/9/2007 10:03:48 PM | message detail | #285
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 10:04:10 PM | message detail | #286
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 8 – Bowser vs. Mewtwo vs. Ryu vs. Toad

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Super Mario
Seed in 2003: 5
Seed in 2004: 7
Seed in 2005: 3
Seed in 2006: 4
Lost in 2003 to Cloud in Round 3
Lost in 2004 to Mario in Round 2
Lost in 2005 to Solid Snake in the Elite 8
Lost in 2006 to Crono in Round 2

Oh Bowser, you went from “strongest non-Noble Niner” to “lol disappointment” so fast.

Game/Series Known From: Pokemon

The old-school psychic king makes its contest debut.

Game/Series Known From: Street Fighter
Seed in 2002: 4
Seed in 2003: 5
Seed in 2004: 9
Seed in 2005: 2
Seed in 2006: 6
Lost in 2002 to Samus in Round 2
Lost in 2003 to Snake in the Round 3
Lost in 2004 to Sonic in Round 2
Lost in 2005 to Bowser in Round 2
Lost in 2006 to Mega Man in Round 2

Mr. Consistency continues to arrive and perform well at every Contest

Game/Series Known From: Super Mario

That mushroom headed thing also makes his first contest appearance.

When I was first filling out my bracket, I looked at this match and said, “This is simple, thank you Bowser/Ryu in 2005.” However, later when I actually, you know, put some real thought into this match, I saw that it was not that easy.

Bowser may have easily beaten Ryu in that match, but in this one, the odds are against him. Look at his opponents, Mewtwo and Toad. That’s two Nintendo characters, one being a fellow Mario character. Also, take a look at the Mario character poll (which is, convienently enough, posted later). In a multi-option poll, Bowser didn’t do so hot. Plus, look at his closest competition. If math isn’t your thing, then I’ll tell you it’s Toad. The split in this poll shouldn’t be as bad, but it is a sign that there will be a split.

Then you throw Mewtwo, who has the potential to be the strongest Pokemon we’ve seen yet in these contests (worthy title, I know), into the mix, and all of a sudden, Bowser’s chances aren’t looking too hot (Get it? Get it? I thought you would…).

To cool Bowser off even more (I’m on a roll, people!), the other person in this match is a Street Fighter icon. Ryu doesn’t have any trouble out-performing the other characters of the series, and the fanbase for fighting game characters should be as dedicated as the one for RPG characters.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Bowser though, as he still has a free slot into the next round. It’s just that with Mewtwo and Toad here to take some of his votes, Ryu has the #1 spot just about locked up.

Bowser: Wow man, what’s with the hate.

You know what you did Bowser.

Bowser: Dude, I told you. It was late and I had a bit too much, and it was dark and I didn’t kno-

Aaaaand, we’re done here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Ryu > Bowser > Mewtwo > Toad

Moltar’s Prediction is: Ryu: 33% - Bowser: 29% - Mewtwo: 22% - Toad: 16%

Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

This contest is littered with matches in which the first and last place characters are obvious, and this is yet another example. Bowser is going to win the poll, and Toad will finish last. I can't see any other way of things, especially with Toad's having to compete with two other Nintendo characters for votes. Looks to be a pretty bad debut for him.

Second place doesn't really come down to Ryu vs Mewtwo, but Ryu vs Nintendo. Ryu's 2005 performance is difficult to ignore, as is the possibility of him being overrated in 2005 *and* 2006. Remember that Mega Man likely overperformed on Snake a bit. Hold Snake/Mega Man again with all of Board 8 backing Snake, and Mega Man does a lot worse. Ryu has been performing as if he were on the decline, and strikes me as a character in the Dante or Zero mode: good strength against non-Nintendo, non-Square characters.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 10:04:40 PM | message detail | #287
Which beings us to Mewtwo. Pokémon has been on the rise since its embarrassing performance in the Spring 2004 Contest, most recently peaking with a great performance in its loss against Metroid in the 2006 series contest. Mewtwo is arguably the most popular of all Pokémon, and I have faith that he'd be around Ryu's strength heads-up. With the high possibility of Ryu doing badly in this poll due to all the Nintendo he's up against, I don't think it's a stretch that Mewtwo could take second place here. Mewtwo could be about as strong as Kirby, and we saw what happened the last time Bowser was in a match with Kirby. We also saw what happened the last time Bowser was in a match with Ryu. That match was an overperformance borne of the villain contest fiasco (much like Ganon/Yuna), but I think a toned down version of that match will happen again and squeak Mewtwo through. If Mewtwo is as strong as I think he is and these two events repeat themselves, Mewtwo taking second isn't as unreasonable as some think it is. He's a *huge* fan favorite, and even has the SSBM factor and recent upward contest trend working in his favor.

It's an upset pick admittedly made of fanboyism, but it's not a bad upset pick at all. I think people gave up on Mewtwo much too easily when the bracket first came out.

Bowser [32.55%]
Mewtwo [28.91%]
Ryu [28.00%]
Toad [10.54%]

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Bowser -- 40%
Ryu -- 36%
Mewtwo -- 15%
Toad -- 9%

The last couple of contests, I’ve been way off in determining how Bowser is going to perform. It’s probably going to be more of the same here. He has a tendency to perform exactly opposite of my predictions, although he did get rather close to upsetting Snake in 2005, which would have almost won me that contest!

With that said, the winners here are pretty obvious. The tough part is determining which of them wins. At first glance, the clear choice here is Bowser, not only due to being a great deal stronger than everyone here, but also by being the most recognizable. The problem that arises is whether or not Bowser holds a “favorite” status with voters, which is particularly pertinent to a format like this. Despite how badly he beat down Ryu, I’d expect things to be a whole lot closer here. Ryu is the huge favorite in the most popular fighting game series here. That’s a pretty wicked combination.

I’m going with Bowser here to pull it off, though. He’s the safer pick, and with the way Nintendo continues to dominate, both on FAQs and abroad, it’s hard to take the upset. The only thing that might prevent Bowser from running away with the poll is Mewtwo and Toad being here, two other characters that can siphon away some of the Nintendo vote.

Bracket: Bowser > Ryu
Vote: Bowser

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Quick write-up from me today. In a match between three Nintendo characters and the most consistent upper midcarder of all time, this much is clear: the upper midcarder and the strongest of the Nintendo characters will move on. In this case, that would be Ryu and Bowser. Mewtwo and Toad (well, maybe not Toad >_>) could have made some waves if placed elsewhere, but they're more or less relegated to "Pyramid Head duty" for this match, meaning "let's see how they do for the fun of it."

The winners are crystal clear, but the order isn't. Bowser is the stronger of the two, but many have argued that the weaker Nintendo characters will steal just enough of Bowser's votes to have Ryu inch by. It's certainly possible, but that's not what I'm predicting. The fact that Bowser is responsible for Ryu's worst loss ever puts him at an automatic advantage, and I don't think characters as weak as Mewtwo and Toad will hurt Bowser much, if at all. It could be close, but my money is on the Koopa King for a decent victory.

Bowser - 38%
Ryu - 33%
Mewtwo - 19%
Toad - 10%
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 10:05:46 PM | message detail | #288
Lopen’s Analysis

Oh, Toad. I feel so bad for you. It's as if you've teamed up with Ryu to defeat Bowser. That sounds great... but Ryu will be taking all the credit for the win. "Victory means nothing, the fight is everything" my ass. Behind that classic look is a glory hound, and behind that glory hound is a mushroom dude who won't be getting any credit for this victory.

If you haven't figured it out yet, I've chosen Ryu to take first in this poll. Bowser has shown that he's capable of defeating Ryu in past contests, but I'm taking Ryu here. Primarily because Toad is there to siphon Bowser's votes away. And believe me, he will be a powerful little siphon. Toad gets about as much support in the favorite Mario character polls as Bowser does, and I think you'll see the effects in this match. Not to mention Mewtwo. Mewtwo is also a threat to Bowser's votes, being Nintendo and all.

So what Ryu's basically got is a three man team against Bowser. Not an honorable fighter, regardless of what he's led you to believe. There's another reason I'm taking Ryu though... and that's because I think he'll do exceptionally well in this contest, in general. The man has never fallen below 40% in a GameFAQs match, despite facing up against some fierce foes such as Samus, Mega Man, Sonic, and Solid Snake. Although Street Fighter is a game of 1v1 combat, Ryu will thrive in these 4 man battle royals, with his diehard fanbase. (and his cowardly 3v1 tactics!)

I feel kinda bad for Mewtwo here... I think he had some potential (keep in mind with the %s I don't think Toad is fodder and that Mewtwo might be getting a little SFF of his own)... but Toad vote siphon or not, I don't see him getting out of this one. It'd be a great twist, but I'm not betting on it.

Lopen's prediction:
Ryu – 37.01%
Bowser – 28.33%
Toad – 18.55%
Mewtwo – 16.11%

Transience’s Analysis

there are two ways to look at this match:

1.) Bowser beat the hell out of Ryu. in a match that was expected to be 50/50 by the stats, Bowser won with 59% of the vote. that was Ryu's worst loss ever - worse than Samus, worse than Sonic, worse than Snake, worse than Mega Man the year after. Bowser simply has Ryu's number.
2.) this poll has three Nintendo characters and Ryu. Mewtwo and Toad will weaken Bowser to the point where Ryu can sneak in and take first place.

I'm going with option 2 here. Bowser is a character that is universally liked and somewhat of a gaming icon, but his fanbase doesn't seem to be all that focused. he only beat Yoshi with 56% of the vote. his match with Kirby in 2005 has been called "rSFF" before. and perhaps the most damning of all is the infamous Mario poll.

Poll 2328 (03/27/2006)
Which Mario character is your all-time favorite?

8609 11.20% Bowser
13021 16.94% Luigi
17777 23.13% Mario
2844 3.70% Princess Peach
6509 8.47% Toad
1994 2.59% Waluigi
5273 6.86% Wario
20830 27.10% Yoshi

Bowser finished behind Yoshi, Mario and Luigi. he's almost definitely stronger than Yoshi and Luigi, but he didn't even come close to matching their performances in a multi-way poll. this kind of poll wouldn't really be relevant normally, but Toad's in the poll with him. this pretty much shows that Toad is going to suck some of Bowser's votes away from him. add Mewtwo, a character with a solid/rabid fanbase, and Bowser's going to be in trouble trying to get votes.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 10:06:12 PM | message detail | #289
on the other hand, here's an old poll about Ryu:

Poll 840 (03/24/2002)
Who is your favorite of the original twelve Street Fighter II characters?

403 1.10% Balrog (J:M.Bison)
2580 7.06% Blanka
4554 12.46% Chun-Li
1068 2.92% Dhalsim
776 2.12% E.Honda
3046 8.33% Guile
5646 15.44% Ken
1068 2.92% M.Bison (J:Vega)
12926 35.35% Ryu
1210 3.31% Sagat
2516 6.88% Vega (J:Balrog)
768 2.10% Zangief

Ryu gets the love. he's got a fanbase that has never let him drop below 40% in a match, despite the fact that he's taken on four noble niners. he should do great in a multi-option poll, and in my opinion he's got a great chance to make it out of this division. Ryu should do some great things in this format, and I think he's got enough to take Bowser.

by the way, I really hate how two interesting characters are completely wasted here. Mewtwo has all kinds of potential, but not when put up against a near-elite like Bowser and a classic like Ryu. Toad could probably do great in a poll without any Nintendo characters, but in this format he's screwed. it's really sad that Mewtwo has the lowest chance of the five Pokemon to advance.
I really think he has the ability to put a scare into one of these characters, but I can't get myself to pick it.

three Nintendo guys
Ryu has a hardcore fanbase
Bowser can't keep up

transience's prediction: Ryu - 34.45%, Bowser - 33.23%, Mewtwo - 22.56%, Toad - 9.76%

Guest’s Analysis - Janus5000

So I was in my room, and I was just like staring at the bracket thinking about the matches, but then again I was thinking about none of them. Then my mom came in, and I didn't even know she was there. She called my name and I didn't even hear it, and then she started screaming "Ryu! Ryu!" and I go "What, what's the matter?" and she goes "What's the matter with you?" and I go "There's nothing wrong mom." And she goes "Don't tell me that. You have Bowser > Ryu!" And I go "No Mom, that's okay, he's just that much stronger, you know, why don't you get me a Pepsi?" And she goes "No, you have Bowser > Ryu!" And I go "Mom, that's okay, I was just thinking about it, really!" And she goes "No, you're not thinking, you have Bowser > Ryu! Normal winners don't predict that way!" And I go "Mom, just get me a Pepsi, please." All I wanted was a Pepsi, and she wouldn't give it to me. All I wanted was a Pepsi, just one Pepsi, and she wouldn't give it to me. Just a Pepsi.

...So then I got a Pepsi myself, and it occurred to me; I wasn't thinking. For starters, I'd just gotten a Pepsi when Coke is easily better. Even worse, I had Bowser > Ryu.

In one corner we have Ryu. Street Fighter hasn't done anything noteworthy recently, but it's not exactly gone and forgotten, and Ryu hasn't fallen too far in these things. Sure, he lost to Bowser pretty badly two years ago, and Nintendo has only gone up since then...

Unfortunately for Bowser, so has the number of Nintendo characters in his matches with Ryu. We have Toad, another Mario character, for starters. Now in the most recent favorite Mario character poll (which is admittedly still a year and a half or so old), Toad did about 3% worse than Bowser. Granted, Bowser has a lot more appeal than Toad, but the fact that Toad even got 8% indicates that he won't be total fodder. Plus the fact that Bowser can't even take most of the Mario faithful votes as he normally does isn't the best start for him. As the poll demonstrates, his fanbase isn't exactly the most hardcore; he's well behind Yoshi and even Luigi despite having looked stronger than them on numerous occasions.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 10:07:23 PM | message detail | #290
Then there's Mewtwo, who, like Bowser, is a cool character from a bestselling Nintendo series that sucks ass in SSBM. We've never seen Mewtwo before, and it's quite likely that he ends up significantly stronger than Pikachu. In fact, if any Pokémon turns out to be a decent midcarder, it would be Mewtwo. Sure, some people hate him because of how broken he is, but others love him for similar reasons. He was also never (to my knowledge) too prevalent in the Pokémon anime, and only made brief appearances. Of course, he was in the first Pokémon movie, and it most certainly helped him retain his image of the ultimate badass that you just don't want to mess with. Even just looking at the match picture seems to confirm this even more. Never mind the fact that he sucks in Melee. So not only will Bowser not have the entirety of his Mario fanbase, but he'll lose some of the 'cool' votes he gets as well.

Now, it could be pointed out right here that most of the site likes both the Mario series and 'cool' characters, so theoretically this shouldn't be a problem for Bowser, right? Wrong. If you really want to nitpick about what most of the site likes, you should also realize that most of the site likes Ryu, as has been proven on many occasions. Not to mention that those visitors that don't particularly like Nintendo and enjoy anti-voting it only really have one option here, that being Ryu (and you all thought anti-voting was useless in a format like this !!) Of course, Bowser is likely still decently above Ryu, so it shouldn't be too much of a blowout, but don't count on the King of all Koopas dodging too much SFF.

Janus' Predictions (which are totally not copied from the Oracle Challenge): Bowser with 31.45%, Mewtwo with 16.09%, Ryu (Street Fighter) with 36.72%, and Toad with 15.74%.

It doesn't matter I'll probably get hit by a Karma Hunter anyway.

Crew Consensus: Suicidal Tendencies aside, Bowser > Ryu is the slight majority over Ryu > Bowser (and Bowser > Mewtwo)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 10:08:01 PM | message detail | #291
Karma Hunter's Analysis

Back to the debatable and semi-debatable matches we go! This match is one with two (seemingly) clear-cut winners, one with a bit of a past together. Bowser vs Ryu was perhaps the most hotly debated match of Round 2 in 2005, but it fizzled into a dud when Bowser 60-40'd Ryu en route to giving him the beating of his life. Ryu has "redeemed" himself somewhat with doing better on Mega Man in 2006, but considering his picture advantage and what Mega Man ended up being that year, how much redemption is that really worth? It doesn't hurt that Bowser disappointed that year though... and they ended up equal in the raw stats, look at that.

...still, I hardly think anyone has the guts to take Ryu > Bowser one-on-one, but Bowser is being hampered here. Not one, but TWO Nintendo characters are sapping his fanbase here, and while they have virtually no chance of winning they can dang sure make Bowser comes in second. But if Bowser overperformed on Ryu due to his Ninty status, could that adversely affect the Street Fighter as well?

It's an iffy call, but I'm gonna go against my bracket here and side with Ryu. I don't think it was a Nintendo thing holding him back - MM is practically the same thing, and he held up decently. And I think this format will favor him, whereas Bowser hasn't done too hot with it in the past.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Bowser. GRRAAAH
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Ryu with 33%, Bowser with 30%, Mewtwo with 23%, Toad with 14%

Upset Prediction: 20%

Maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time seeing Bowser thrive in this format. He's definitely liked a lot, but is he a favorite in the way that will make people vote him over this competition? He doesn't have to be to come in second if Mewtwo and Toad are fodder - but while Toad is practically guaranteed to be (a certainty if he weren't so Ninty through and through), Mewtwo is a bit different. He has an awesome appeal that can extend even to non-Pokemon fans - just look at that picture. He's the Pokemon fan favorite by a landslide. These are factors that add up to votes in a four-way match like this. Now if he has some real strength to him, and if Bowser is as weak as 2k6 implies or more... well, then we have a match on our hands, don't we?
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Chris/PH/Shadow - Bracket: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (20/24)
DpObliVion | Posted 9/9/2007 10:08:02 PM | message detail | #292
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Thanks to SFF, Mewtwo and Toad stand no chance in this match, leaving Bowser and Ryu as locks to move on. There is some debate, however, on the order. In a 1-on-1, Bowser easily defeats Ryu. Actually, he already has: 59%-41% in 2005.

Some people would really like to believe that the SFF will be enough to allow Ryu to come out on top. I'm not one of them. If Bowser alone can get near 60% on Ryu, Bowser combined with Mewtwo and Toad can get at least 70%. That means Bowser only needs to at least break 30%, and even with the options of Toad and Mewtwo, I can't see Bowser not getting roughly 1 out of every 3 votes.

DpOblivion's bracket says: Bowser > Ryu

DpOblivion's prediction is: Bowser > Ryu

Confidence Rating: 70%

Bowser - 36%
Ryu - 28%
Mewtwo - 22%
Toad - 14%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 25/28
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/9/2007 10:08:04 PM | message detail | #293
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 10:15:15 PM | message detail | #294
Oh, and Ryu > Bowser is the Crew favorite. For some reason I counted an extra Bowser > Ryu (HM's fault!).
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu/Toad - Bracket: Ryu > Bowser - Vote: Bowser (24/28)
transience | Posted 9/9/2007 10:16:16 PM | message detail | #295
aww yeah time for the analysis crew to be put to the test again
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
DpObliVion | Posted 9/9/2007 10:31:05 PM | message detail | #296
Hell yes, Janus with the Instutionalized write-up! That was great. I want Ryu to beat Bowser now just so he's right....

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 25/28
DpObliVion | Posted 9/9/2007 10:31:50 PM | message detail | #297
Okay, no I don't, I want to get up on that leaderboard before I blow it with my fanboy pick. But still....

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 25/28
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 11:00:18 PM | message detail | #298
Ulti's confidence has me nervous after he said Jill had no chance of losing >_>
SC2k7: 19/24, tied for 541st
Today's Pick: Auron > Shadow
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 11:51:22 PM | message detail | #299
See? Stop jinxing us Ulti!
SC2k7: 23/28, tied for 305th
Today's Pick: Bowser > Ryu
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2007 11:54:00 PM | message detail | #300
I can't believe I set my upset probablity so low. I completely spaced that Bowser > Ryu was a possibility along with Ryu > Mewtwo... <____<
delicious cats
Commit it to memory.