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Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/6/2007 8:24:09 PM | message detail | #201
And I know hindsight is 20/20, but if Kerrigan could get 11-12% with Samus in the poll, you should've known Agent 47 would do better than THAT.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Bokonon_Lives | Posted 9/6/2007 8:24:21 PM | message detail | #202
I'll be back next week to take another crack that accuracy game! :-P
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bokonon get your sense-making the **** out of this topic now - Cat1001
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/6/2007 8:25:34 PM | message detail | #203
I thought Midna was going to be just below Auron. I have an excuse!

...That probably hurts more than it helps, but still! Argh between this and missing a day my oracle is probably going to be at the very bottom of the people who predict semi-regularly. =/
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 8:25:40 PM | message detail | #204
well, I wrote my prediction in August. but even then, I see Kerrigan fans. I almost NEVER see 47 fans.
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now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
ZFS | Posted 9/6/2007 8:26:36 PM | message detail | #205
I thought Midna was going to be just below Auron.

what

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
DpObliVion | Posted 9/6/2007 8:26:41 PM | message detail | #206
I'm calling it right now, I'm going to have the lowest Marcus percentage.

I didn't see anyone from the Crew specifically, but looking at the Oracle topic.......it just seems to me like he is being greatly overestimated.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 16/16
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/6/2007 8:28:48 PM | message detail | #207
From ZFS Posted 9/6/2007 9:26:36 PM #205
I thought Midna was going to be just below Auron.

what


They have a lot of parallels, and the ones they don't have are made up for by the fact that she's from Zelda. <_<

Shut up I hate you </3.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
ZFS | Posted 9/6/2007 8:29:31 PM | message detail | #208
They have a lot of parallels,

what

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/6/2007 8:32:04 PM | message detail | #209
...I suppose throwing around the word "badass" would get another of those? <_<

Her getting 40% today made sense at the time! (Which was about two minutes before the match started. D: )
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 8:32:36 PM | message detail | #210
post the analyses quick moltar, who knows what might be next
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now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/6/2007 9:27:25 PM | message detail | #211
...Turtle is the guest writeup? Argh. =/
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 9:56:23 PM | message detail | #212
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 5 – Kefka vs. Marcus Fenix vs. Tom Nook vs. Zelos Wilder

Moltar’s Analysis

Kefka
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VI
Seed in 2003: 12
Seed in 2004: 7
Seed in 2005: 3
Lost in 2003 to Crono in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Knuckles in Round 1
Lost in 2005 to Tommy Vercetti in Round 1

Oh Kefka, you never fail to disappoint us. Never ever.

Marcus
Game/Series Known From: Gears of War

So…is this guy like the Master Chief lite?

Tom
Game/Series Known From: Animal Crossing
Seed in 2003: 14
Lost in 2003 to Crono in Round 1

Didn’t think we would be seeing Tom freaking Nook back.

Zelos
Game/Series Known From: Tales of Symponia

He’s so hott.

Here’s an interesting match to start Division 2. Now, what I’m going to say might surprise you, but-

“Hey Moltar!”

That voice…that sounds like Billy the Casual Bracketmaker! It’s been a while since we’ve seen you. Tell me, what do you think about this match?

“Gears of War is awesome! It’s like bang boom run n gun extreme cool! I think Marcus is going all the way to the top here, and Kefka gets second, since Final Fantasy pretty awesome too.”

Well Billy…for once, I’m going to agree with you.

“But wait, what abou- huh, you’re agreeing with me?”

That’s right Billy. Usually your predictions are…how can I put this nicely…ah yes, bat**** insane. But this time, I think you called it mostly right. Before I get to that though, let me first say a few things about the other two characters in this match. Animal Crossing is pretty popular worldwide, but Tom Nook at GameFAQs, not so much. Tales of Symphonia is also well-liked on GameFAQs, but like with Kratos, I don’t think the hardcore fanbase will push Zelos to the top two spots. He’ll do decently though, and he’s got my vote, the most important of all.

Now, back to the main two, Kefka and Fenix. A lot of people are giving this to Kefka because even though he isn’t that strong, his opposition certainly doesn’t look like a threat. Kefka also has Square and Final Fantasy on his side, which makes him a desirable choice.

However, some are being bold here, and going with Marcus. He’s the character you play as in Gears of War, which was one of the top contenders for Game of the Year last year. It pulled in 3rd, just under FFXII, and both were trounced by Zelda: TP. Combine that with Xbox hate dying down at GameFAQs, thanks to the quality of 360 games, and Fenix has a chance at being a good midcard here. Xbox voters tend to support their character, even in multi-option polls, and that’s an advantage for Marcus (and another character who’s coming up later).

“Alright, so who do you think wins?”

Well Billy, I’m playing it safe and saying Kefka ends up with #1 here and Marcus gets #2. Marcus has a very good shot at the top spot, but I think Kefka will get a good chunk of backing from FF6 fans, and those who overall just love Square. The characters here aren’t really big names that will steal votes from the other, lesser-known characters, so Kefka has a good shot at being recognized easily and getting votes like that. Even though Fenix might not win here, his future does look brighter than Kefka’s.

“What happens if your wrong and I’m right, Moltar?

Ha ha! Let’s just say, Billy, that someone will have trouble living soon.

“Thanks Moltar, and now I know!”

And knowing is half the battle.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Kefka > Marcus > Zelos > Tom

Moltar’s Prediction is: Kefka: 34% - Fenix: 32% - Zelos: 20% - Tom: 14%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

This is a pure four-way fodder match, though we've at least seen Kefka prove a passable midcarder in years past and can pretty much shoo him in for a top two spot.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 9:56:52 PM | message detail | #213
Tom Nook was complete crap in 2003, and I doubt the Animal Crossing series has grown at all since then. I think it's safe to put Nook into a bottom two spot.

This leaves us with Zelos and Marcus Fenix. Though Fenix suffers from the Gordon Freeman syndrome, his game is immensely popular and has a very dedicated fanbase. Zelos is a decent fan favorite from Tales of Symphonia, but he's no Kratos. He isn't even as popular as Sheena, who I'd hesitate to place top two here. Add this to Tales of Symphonia falling off the map in popularity, and I think Zelos will have too much trouble trying to make the top two.

Fenix > Kefka is an intriguing upset pick given how badly Kefka can perform in these matches, and Fenix likely won't suffer the anti-votes that, say, Master Chief does. But Fenix has little if any popularity to work off of on GameFAQs despite Gears of War doing very well in polls. Fenix getting first wouldn't surprise me, but I don't think it'll happen. Yet. Maybe in a year or two. Or maybe now, who knows. I'm not all that keen on the Gears of War fanbase's fervor.

Ulti's Prediction:

Kefka [37.25%]
Marcus Fenix [30.00%]
Zelos [20.00%]
Tom Nook [12.75%]



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Kefka -- 39%
Marcus Fenix -- 37%
Zelos Wilder -- 19%
Tom Nook -- 5%


This one has seen plenty of discussion since the bracket came out. The people justifying Kefka in first cite “No one really knows Marcus Fenix”; those justifying Zelos in second cite “No one really knows Marcus Fenix.” In both cases, I’d say they’re pretty wrong.

Originally, I went with Fenix over Kefka -- mostly because I’d take Fenix one-on-one -- but that ever annoying villains poll made me rethink the match. Mostly because of how well he managed to hold up with Sephiroth in the poll, and then you figure that Kefka has got to have that distinct fanbase that will ensure he does pretty well in this type of format.

That said he isn’t going to be blowing away the competition. Fenix is still going to give him a run for his money, if not beat him. Gears of Wars’ popularity is hard to deny, and while Fenix is hardly as iconic as Master Chief, he is distinct enough to be recognized as both the “Gears dude” and badass looking enough to get the picture vote from voters who don’t care about any of them. Gordon Freeman syndrome? Nah. You see and hear Fenix way too much for that.

And while the argument that the Tales fanbase is rabid enough to let Zelos pull something off, I’m not expecting it to be enough. Zelos will get a good deal of the Tales vote, and he’ll end up in a respectable third all things considered. But actually manage to advance? Not this time. He’d need to go up against even weaker competition to pull that off.

Oh, and Tom Nook... no.

Bracket: Kefka > Marcus Fenix
Vote: Zelos



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Friend's, gather round; it's the moment we've all been waiting for! For the first time in years, Tom Nook has returned to the contest scene! Damn the rest - my kingdom for a Tom Nook victory! Personally, I think this match is a pretty tough nut to crack, especially after everything we've seen throughout the first four days. Kefka is the favorite, though he surely won't dominate, Kratos Aurion's decent performance in the current poll makes Zelos look like he has at least a decent chance, and Agent 47's surprisingly good performance does the same for Marcus Fenix. With his lovable design and lone "true" Nintendo character status, Nook, the famed shop owner, entrepreneur, and financier of Animal Crossing, is the dark horse. Why, he could range anywhere from last place to winning with 60% of the vote! Why, Mr. Nook, you dastardly raccoon, you!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 9:57:51 PM | message detail | #214
In all seriousness, this is a match between four relatively weak characters, and as proof, the unspectacular Kefka is heavily favored to walk away the winner. After him, it's a bit of a crapshoot between Tales of Symphonia's Zelos and Gears of War's Marcus Fenix (and maybe even Tom Nook?!), but I feel that Fenix has the edge. He's the main protagonist of one of last year's most popular games, and he has a cooler picture and recency on his side. Zelos looks almost too effeminate, and... well I just don't like that. Also, don't be surprised if old Mr. Nook does very well for himself!

My shortest analysis so far. This match kinda sucks.

Kefka - 34%
Marcus Fenix - 26%
Zelos Wilder - 21%
Tom Nook - 19%



Lopen’s Analysis

Easy match... Kefka/Marcus Fenix win, right? Wrong. This is a really hard match to call for me. Is Marcus Fenix weak enough to be pushed down by Kefka far enough that the hardcore Tales of Symphonia fanbase can take him?

Like Midna, I don't know much about Marcus. From what I hear, Marcus is not exactly the most liked character. Not to say he's disliked, but the character just doesn't stand out much... that's what I'm getting. One might say that being from Gears of War is enough... but to that one, I point out Carl Johnson, a character from a more popular game in GTA:San Andreas. I also see that his design is pretty generic, and it's possible that he might not be recognized immediately because of that combined with his relative lack of screentime, GoW being a shooter. The Gordon Freeman syndrome, I guess.

Some might say that even if he isn't terribly appreciated by Gears fans, the exposure and love for the game will do it because this lot is so weak. They'll say that Kefka lacks the strength to push him down far enough to go below Zelos's devoted ToS fanbase. I'm going to have to disagree on that. We've seen before that if faced with a character truly weaker than him (read Mithos, Wesker {the picture's effect on this match is overrated, I think}), Kefka can beat it soundly. Final Fantasy 6 is a very popular game here, so he has the exposure to do it. He just usually gets matches that test him.

In addition, because this group is so weak, Zelos gets more than just the ToS hardcore vote here. Zelos probably gives Kefka or Marcus Fenix (I wouldn't be so sure he loses to Marcus, really) a close match without these odd conditions. He's not total jobber fodder.

And you know... Zelos has the hunny vote, too. 5% of the site... locked for Zelos, baby.

Lopen's prediction:
Kefka – 33.33%
Zelos Wilder – 32.17%
Marcus Fenix – 26.50%
Tom Nook – 8.00% (haw haw I said not a word about you... no you can't SFF Zelos, fie upon anyone who thought that!)



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

Today's match is probably the most "up in the air" one that's out there. The only recurring competitor is perennial disappointment and chump Kefka (oh I'm sorry I guess he was a big snub or something because he gave an exciting cheat-a-thon in 2005). Tom Nook has had a one-and-done shot against Crono in 2003, and the other two are newcomers - Marcus Fenix, "star" of the hit game Gears of War and Zelos, yet another Tales character who may be the lowest on the rung of all.

The top two are surprisingly agreed upon - Kefka and Marcus - but the order is hotly debated. Kefka is hardly the pinnacle of strength, but he certainly has a contingent of hardcore voters that will choose him over anyone and anything. Small as that may be, in this format it matters a LOT more. Meanwhile, Marcus certainly has the potential if he gets a considerable fraction of Gears of War's popularity, but he's gonna have to be riding off the popularity of being "the GeoW guy" more than anything else. The name "Marcus Fenix" would have a damn good shot at finishing last in this poll.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 9:58:34 PM | message detail | #215
In all seriousness, this is a match between four relatively weak characters, and as proof, the unspectacular Kefka is heavily favored to walk away the winner. After him, it's a bit of a crapshoot between Tales of Symphonia's Zelos and Gears of War's Marcus Fenix (and maybe even Tom Nook?!), but I feel that Fenix has the edge. He's the main protagonist of one of last year's most popular games, and he has a cooler picture and recency on his side. Zelos looks almost too effeminate, and... well I just don't like that. Also, don't be surprised if old Mr. Nook does very well for himself!

My shortest analysis so far. This match kinda sucks.

Kefka - 34%
Marcus Fenix - 26%
Zelos Wilder - 21%
Tom Nook - 19%



Lopen’s Analysis

Easy match... Kefka/Marcus Fenix win, right? Wrong. This is a really hard match to call for me. Is Marcus Fenix weak enough to be pushed down by Kefka far enough that the hardcore Tales of Symphonia fanbase can take him? Today's match is probably the most "up in the air" one that's out there. The only recurring competitor is perennial disappointment and chump Kefka (oh I'm sorry I guess he was a big snub or something because he gave an exciting cheat-a-thon in 2005). Tom Nook has had a one-and-done shot against Crono in 2003, and the other two are newcomers - Marcus Fenix, "star" of the hit game Gears of War and Zelos, yet another Tales character who may be the lowest on the rung of all.

The top two are surprisingly agreed upon - Kefka and Marcus - but the order is hotly debated. Kefka is hardly the pinnacle of strength, but he certainly has a contingent of hardcore voters that will choose him over anyone and anything. Small as that may be, in this format it matters a LOT more. Meanwhile, Marcus certainly has the potential if he gets a considerable fraction of Gears of War's popularity, but he's gonna have to be riding off the popularity of being "the GeoW guy" more than anything else. The name "Marcus Fenix" would have a damn good shot at finishing last in this poll.

Fortunately for him here, he's got a pretty recognizable shot - COG armor w/chainsaw rifle and all. If you can't recognize that from Gears of War, you weren't gonna vote for Marcus anyway. And frankly, it's got me scared here. DAMN scared. Am I gonna pick against my bracket here? ...not quite, but it may as well be. I'll predict Kefka to escape a squeaker due to a more reliable rally down the stretch. Sure his cheaters are bad, but at least they care enough to cheat...

Karma Hunter's Vote: Kefka. Uwee hee hee.
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Kefka with 31.5%, Marcus with 31%, Tom Nook with 20.5%, Zelos with 17%

Upset Prediction: 80%

Man, the chances keep going higher and higher here, huh? In a nutshell, Marcus can easily win this thanks to Kefka being all lettucy and having the support of GeoW behind him. But the other two have shots as well (at least to steal second, I'd say). Tom Nook only had one-and-done, but that was in 2k3 and he might have risen since then... and he's really the only "proper" Nintendo character here, which should give him a fair share of bracket votes. If Fenix bombs or something? He's poised to strike. And even Zelos has a pretty good shot if the Tales fanbase supports him the same way they've supported the others - in a small, but loyal fashion. But seeing as how the guy comes in halfway through the game and suffers from Kuja-syndrome to the max - except he's not even the main antagonist... um, let's just say I'll be happy if he ends up above Mithos.

...who did surprisingly well on Kefka, so I shouldn't exactly count him out!



Transience’s Analysis

this is one of those 'well, *somebody's* got to advance' matches, the first of many in the first round. this is what happens when you get 128 characters and throw characters in pods randomly.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 9:59:11 PM | message detail | #216
the big story of this match is the untested Marcus Fenix. some have speculated that he'll be like Master Chief, a guy who can thrive off the x-box population and get a decent percentage in a multi-option poll. after all, Gears of War sold an absolute ton of copies and almost matched FF12's percentage in the Game of the Year poll. why can't Marcus Fenix carry that into a character battle?

well, there's a damn good reason -- "who the hell is Marcus Fenix?" I've heard that question several times over the last two months, and while I know board 8 is pretty anti-xbox/"casual" games, they usually at least know who a guy is. Marcus Fenix screams disappointment to me. he simply isn't the face of Gears like Master Chief or some other characters are with their respective shooters. hell, you see more of his back than his front when you're playing GeW.

as such, I think a lot of this match will depend on the picture, and not just for Marcus. Kefka is a match picture legend and a lot of people are skeptical of taking him in normal character battles because you never know what you're going to get - lettuce, angels, sprites, who knows. between Marcus and Kefka, this might be one of the bigger "picture" matches we'll have this year.

Tom Nook is bottom-barrel fodder, so we can cut this match down to Kefka, Fenix and Zelos. Zelos would be an interesting pick if there was somebody strong in this match to suck up a lot of votes. Zelos's fanbase isn't very large, but you know they're going to support him over these three clowns. unfortunately for him, I doubt Kefka's going to be able to pull ~50% of the votes in, so it's going to come down to whether or not Fenix bombs. I'm pretty firm in my belief that Kratos > Sheena > Zelos >= Lloyd. Lloyd didn't do all that much better than Mithos, and Kefka doubled Mithos up. (at the time, we thought this was impressive from Mithos, too.) Marcus may be fodder in my eyes, but he can probably get 25% vs. a pile of lettuce, a yaoi legend and.. uh, whatever the hell Tom Nook is.

Kefka and Fenix
maybe the worst picture yet?
lettuce meets big gun

transience's prediction: Kefka - 33.56%, Marcus - 32.45%, Zelos - 23.45%, Tom Nook - 10.54%



Guest’s Analysis - Black Turtle

Kefka

Summer 2003 Contest
South Division - 12 Seed

Southern Round 1 --- Defeated (5) Pac Man, 47678 [50.95%] - 45905 [ 49.05%]
Southern Quarterfinal --- Lost to (4) Crono, 21373 [21.08%] - 79999 [78.92%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 52nd Place [15.56%]

Summer 2004 Contest
20XX Division - 7 Seed

20XX Round 1 --- Lost to (10) Knuckles, 35220 [ 42.54%] - 47578 [57.46%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 34th Place [21.21%]

Spring 2005 Contest
Ruin Division - 1 Seed

Ruin Round 1 --- Defeated (8) Mithos, 46454 [63.98%] - 26151 [36.02%]
Ruin Semifinal --- Defeated (5) Wesker, 54640 [ 70.37%] - 23012 [29.63%]
Ruin Finals --- Lost to (7) Diablo, 38660 [45.91%] - 45547 [54.09%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [26.73%]


Summer 2005 Contest
Flood Division - 3 Seed

Flood Round 1 --- Lost to (6) Tommy Vercetti, 47920 [ 48.86%] - 50165 [51.14%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 41st Place [20.82%]


Ah Kefka. If there's any character in these things that doesn't get nearly the support they deserve, it's him. He's easily the best villain out of any game and any genre. Last time we saw him he managed to perform decently both in the Villains contest and against Vercetti in 2005. Not often do you see the main villain steal the show like Kefka, and it shows with how absolutely fodderific Celes and Terra ended up. FF6 may be one of this site's favourite games, but the characters in it aren't worth much at all. That said, Kefka's pretty much a lock to advance here.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 10:00:27 PM | message detail | #217
Marcus Fenix

The second untested newcomer expected to do something, and hopefully he doesn't wind up like the first (lol midna). The main character of the extremely popular, and extremely well recieved Gears of War, Fenix will be the perfect gauge of where the X-Box 360 stands on this site. He has a very good chance to make it to round 3 here.

Tom Nook

Summer 2003 Contest
South Division - 13 Seed

Southern Round 1 --- Lost to (4) Crono, 14631 [14.19%] - 88469 [85.81%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 61st Place [10.82% ]


lol fodder

Zelos

Another crappy Tales of Symphonia character. Is it just me, or does the game really suck or something, because none of their characters ever do anything, but 5 have made the contest. I wouldn't expect much out of him, although some people think Fenix will bomb badly enough to let this scrub advance.

Predictions:

This one really is a crapshoot. And how you think this match will go depends entirely on how you think Fenix will do here. I've seen people calling for Neo-Tannerism, and others calling for Kratos v2.0 (the good Kratos, not the one that let Scorpion and Midna walk all over him). Personally I think he'll fall somewhere in the middle, which puts him comfortably enough above Kefka to be able to advance to round 3 over him and the winner of Jill/Ocelot.

As for Zelos, well, look at these 2 matches:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2069
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2009

Sure lol villains contest and all that, but the point remains that Kefka did significantly better on Wesker than did the actual main character of ToS. Yeah, Zelos should be a non-factor here. As for trends, expect Kefka to give a solid performance in the night then fall apart at the seams come 3pm EST. Fenix's day vote won't be on par with Kingdom Hearts', but it should be more than enough to deal with Kefka.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Fenix 37%, Kefka 33%, Zelos 20%, Tom Nook 10%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Fenix > Kefka
TuRtLe's Vote: Kefka of course



Crew Consensus: Looks like alot of Kefka > Fenix. Lopen goes with Kefka > Zelos, and Turtle has the very possible Fenix > Kefka.
trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 10:01:21 PM | message detail | #218
I, uh, think your copy and paste broke.
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now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:01:34 PM | message detail | #219
Loving the revelation that KH is a Lopen alt. That explains his constant accusations of satai being an alt. <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
ZFS | Posted 9/6/2007 10:03:21 PM | message detail | #220
One of these days, I'll go back and fix the percentages for the remaining matches...

Nook's so getting more than 5%.

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 10:07:37 PM | message detail | #221
augh augh augh

My bad. It isn't too hard to follow though. Just skip from the beginning of KH's analysis at the end of the post to "Fortunately"
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Agent 47/Kratos/Midna/Scorpion - Bracket: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Kratos (12/12)
trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 10:09:36 PM | message detail | #222
wow, the actual crew went unanimous for Kefka. didn't expect that.
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now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 10:10:03 PM | message detail | #223
glad we've got a guest going for what is quite a reasonable 'upset'.
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now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/6/2007 10:11:14 PM | message detail | #224
Lopen has another point tonight gentlemen!
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SC2k7: 12/12, tied for 1st
Today's Pick: Scorpion > Midna
The Real Truth | Posted 9/6/2007 10:18:06 PM | message detail | #225
I really don't see Fenix doing well. Gears of War is popular right? So is Halo and look how well Master Chief does. I doubt Fenix is nearly as popular as MC AND this is site is still mostly anti Microsoft, maybe not as much as in the past but still. I think today's match was actually a good indication of how tomorrow will go. Though Scorpion is obviously stronger than Kefka, it's still a similar set up.
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:25:04 PM | message detail | #226
Man, can't believe I'm the only one who took Fenix here. It seems obvious that X-Box hate is at an all-time low, and Kefka really isn't a huge bastion of strength in these things.

Really, Marcus only needs to be stronger than 2k5 Vercetti to nab this, and with higher votals, combined with the fact that GeoW is fresh compared to VC being a few years old in 2k5, and it seemed pretty obvious to me when I made my bracket.

Then again, Kefka finds a way to screw me over every year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he performs his utter best today.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
DpObliVion | Posted 9/6/2007 10:31:47 PM | message detail | #227
DpOblivion's Unofficial Supposedly-Quick-But-Apparently-Not Analysis

*looks at Crew's picks*

Oh boy....a whole 1 person put Tom Nook even 3rd. Everyone else had him far behind in 4th. What am I getting myself into, here?

Yesterday, there was some glaring overestimation of Midna. Today, it's Marcus Fenix. I know his competition is pretty poor, but I really cannot see 1 out of every 3 voters voting for him. I'm even doubt 1 out of every 4. He may be the lead of the hottest new-gen game, but he's not exactly a memorable character, and have that many people truly hopped on the 360 bandwagon yet?

Next up is Zelos. I don't know the difference between Zelos and Kratos, but I would imagine their percentages being relatively similar, being from Tales of Symphonia.

Then there's Kefka. The "powerhouse" of this group, but possibly the worst performing powerhouse in these contests, perhaps 2nd to Master Chief (yup, the Master Chief of Xbox fame....will his terrible performances carry over to Marcus Fenix?). Kefka is pretty weak, but against such fodder, he should be able to get a decent amount of the votes.

Finally, we come to Tom Nook. The one who everyone is writing off. The one my perfect bracket is currently riding on. Do I think Tom Nook will do good? No, not necessarily. I just think he won't do as bad as the other three. Honestly, I'm not even sure if I can explain my reasoning without sounding like an idiot. Maybe it's ignorance, maybe it's refusal to admit I'm wrong, maybe it's denial that my perfect bracket could be coming to an end.

Or maybe I am right with this gut feeling. Time will tell.

DpOblivion's bracket says: Kefka > Tom Nook

DpOblivion's prediction is: Kefka > Tom Nook

Confidence Rating: 20%

Kefka - 34.5%
Tom Nook - 23.25%
Zelos - 21.25%
Marcus Fenix - 21%




<_<




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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 16/16
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/6/2007 10:48:46 PM | message detail | #228
lol Dp
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SC2k7: 12/12, tied for 1st
Today's Pick: Scorpion > Midna
Bokonon_Lives | Posted 9/6/2007 10:49:30 PM | message detail | #229
Wow, awesome. <3 upsets. My bracket is shot to hell right now anyway. Goooo Nook!
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bokonon get your sense-making the **** out of this topic now - Cat1001
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:50:30 PM | message detail | #230
...When Dp puts it that way, I almost want to change my Oracle to have Fenix getting a lot less and Kefka winning.

Then I remind myself of Dp's other picks. =D
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/6/2007 10:52:14 PM | message detail | #231
Kefka: 35%
Fenix: 33%
Zelos: 20%
Tom: 12%

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:53:57 PM | message detail | #232
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:55:24 PM | message detail | #233
Good luck, Dp. NOOK4LIFE
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
DpObliVion | Posted 9/6/2007 11:02:57 PM | message detail | #234
TOM PASSES ZELOS!

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 16/16
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/6/2007 11:04:06 PM | message detail | #235
I actually switched my bracket to Fenix > Kefka, but I didn't feel like changing my writeup.

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
Lopen | Posted 9/6/2007 11:14:14 PM | message detail | #236
Ouch...

Er... I mean... GO ZELOS! COMEBACK MODE, ACTIVATE!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 11:23:49 PM | message detail | #237
And after a good hit, Lopen misses hard.

Some things never do change!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Kefka/Marcus/Tom/Zelos - Bracket: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Zelos (14/16)
AndrewWarner | Posted 9/7/2007 6:45:10 AM | message detail | #238
*tag*
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"You see him there - a man snared by destiny, a lonely figure with his light dimmed behind the glory of his son." - Dune
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/7/2007 3:29:25 PM | message detail | #239
I should have rewritten that thing to reflect my bracket =/

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 5:46:01 PM | message detail | #240
Agent 47.............17.56% 22874
Kratos Aurion....21.09% 27474
Midna..................24.71% 32182
Scorpion............36.64% 47724
TOTAL VOTES..............130254

20.12% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly.
26.05% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly.

46.59% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd.
18.69% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st.

After going in with high expectations, Midna becomes the flop of the contest thus far. Scorpion has no trouble taking this group with ease, while Midna comes in a distant 2nd.

Today, Fenix is owning it up. Looks like our safe picks didn't work out.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Lopen gets a free point today for being bold.

Lopen - 1
Yoblazer - 1
Tran - 1
KH - 1
Moltar - 0
Ulti - 0
HM - 0
Guest - 0



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen's roll continues with 2 points for Midna and Scorpion. Yo and HM get a point for Kratos and Guest gets the Agent 47 point.

Lopen - 3
Ulti - 3
Yoblazer - 3
HM - 3
Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp) - 3
Moltar - 1
KH - 1
Tran - 1
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Kefka/Marcus/Tom/Zelos - Bracket: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Zelos (14/16)
jonthomson | Posted 9/7/2007 5:47:21 PM | message detail | #241
You should TOTALLY have had me as the special guest announcer on this match. Shotgun on Cloud's round 2 match if it's not been decided
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Jon Thomson - 12/16, next picks: Marcus beats Kefka
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
Mario Man53245 | Posted 9/7/2007 5:48:34 PM | message detail | #242
TAG
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"Nothing helps a bad mood like spreading it around." - Calvin
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 6:56:05 PM | message detail | #243
Man, damn you to hell Tom Nook. My pick today would have been golden if you were at the bottom like we expected you to be.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 6:57:26 PM | message detail | #244
Once again, this is one of those instances where I was wondering why people were expecting Tom Nook to be so low. Look at his competition. Who's going to push him down under 10% here?
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 7:02:42 PM | message detail | #245
I don't really know anything about ToS so I figured Zelos would be like Sheena/Kratos and Lloyd.

lol fails of symphailia

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 9/7/2007 7:03:06 PM | message detail | #246
Hey, Moltar, I sent you the analyses with updated percentages. Just to throw it out there in case you're around before you start posting!

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 7:07:50 PM | message detail | #247
Oh, Zelos was more like Lloyd in that he sucked it up. Kratos and Sheena are definitely a step above Lloyd.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:30:39 PM | message detail | #248
Axel vs. Frog vs. Samus Aran vs. Sarah Kerrigan
First Place
+8 Ulti
+7 Mo (tie)
+7 Yo (tie)
+5 tran
+4 KH
+3 Lo
+2 Guest
+1 HM

Second Place
+8 HM
+7 KH (tie)
+7 Yo (tie)
+5 Mo
+4 tran
+0 Guest
+0 Lo
+0 Ulti


Agent 47 vs. Kratos Aurion vs. Midna vs. Scorpion
First Place
+8 Lo
+7 Guest (Dp)
+6 HM
+5 Mo (tie)
+5 Yo (tie)
+3 tran
+2 KH
+1 Ulti

Second Place
+8 Lo
+7 Guest (Dp)
+6 Ulti
+5 KH
+4 Mo
+3 HM (tie)
+3 Yo (tie)
+1 tran


Overall Rankings
1. Yoblazer33 (45)
2. Master Moltar (42)
3. Karma Hunter (38)
4. Board 8 (35)
5. Lopen (34)
6. transience (33)
7. Heroic Mario (32)
8. UltimaterializerX (23)

Lopen and Board 8 take advantage of our blunders yesterday and do very well for themselves, and I somehow manage a tie in each of the four rankings.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 9/7/2007 9:55:39 PM | message detail | #249
lol transience more like failsience
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http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg
now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 10:07:59 PM | message detail | #250
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 6 – Cloud Strife vs. Jill Valentine vs. Midgar Zolom vs. Revolver Ocelot

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VII
Seed in 2002: 2
Seed in 2003: 1
Seed in 2004: 1
Lost in 2002 to Mario in the Elite 8.
Won the Summer Contest in 2003.
Lost in 2004 to Link in the Finals
Lost in 2005 to Link in the Tournament of Champions
Lost in 2006 to Link in the Final Day of the Battle Royale

Looks whose finally back, Mr. Airplane Wing.

Jill
Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil
Seed in 2002: 3
Seed in 2003: 11
Seed in 2004: 14
Seed in 2006: 3
Lost in 2002 to Link in Round 3
Lost in 2003 to Squall in Round 1
Lost in 2004 to Ryu H. in Round 1
Lost in 2006 to Peach in Round 2

With two very close losses in her past, can she turn it around here?

Zolom
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VII

…I said wow.

Ocelot
Game/Series Known From: Metal Gear Solid
Seed in 2005: 2
Lost in 2005 to Pac-Man in Round 1

Justice is served. Good hand-gesturing justice.

This is one crazy four-pack. We’ve got two characters from the site’s strongest game, and two characters from series that are SFF food for the series that the other two characters come from. Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil all have crossed paths in the past, and judging from the results, the food chain is FF > MGS > RE

So we get to this match. Well, Cloud is the 2nd strongest character at GameFAQs, so I guess he’ll get first (maybe). Then there’s Zolom, whom Board 8 got into the contest. Can’t believe he’s the next most popular Final Fantasy 7 character behind Cloud, Seph, Vincent and Aeris (am I forgetting someone here? Nah, this looks good). Still, no way Zolom advances, but he’s at least going to get that dedicated Board vote!

The real match here is the battle for #2 between Jill and Ocelot. Using the stats, both characters look very funny. This is because Jill is overrated thanks to the female half in 2006, and Ocelot is underrated thanks to Yoshi/Pac-Man SFF. Using 2004 and Villians Contest values, they end up pretty close.

So, what do we do now? Well, remember that little order of FF > MGS > RE a few paragraphs up? I’m depending on that for this match. Not only that, but most MGS fans love Ocelot. He has the best chance of standing up to Cloud here (and by that I mean not getting crushed into the ground). Jill isn’t really a huge favorite of RE fans, but she certainly has her backing. It should be close between the two, but I’m banking on Ocelot doing better in this kind of setting than Jill.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Cloud > Ocelot > Jill > Zolom

Moltar’s Prediction is: Cloud: 60% - Ocelot: 19% - Jill: 18% - Zolom: 7%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

This is the first real obvious match of the bracket, though Midgar Zolom getting in proves how awesome Sailor Bacon is. CJayC was always against joke nominations getting into bracket, but Sailor not only let them in, but gave some a chance to actually advance.

As for the match, it's Cloud > Jill > Ocelot > Zolom. It can't really be spun any other way, though the first minute or so should be interesting. There are locks, mortal locks and metaphysical certitudes --- and it's a metaphysical certitude that Board 8 will have Zolom winning early.

The only real upset possibility here is FF7 SFFing RE and MGS so badly that Ocelot and Jill end up being close, thus giving Ocelot a chance to come in second. But even if that happens, I can't imagine Ocelot coming close. Jill Valentine would never lose to Pac-Man, and a four-way poll doesn't help Ocelot get over how far back that loss set him. I can't really back this opinion up with stats or anything, but I think it's obvious enough not to need any.
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