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Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew

Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:32:58 AM | message detail | #051
Yeah, Lopen's write-up does indeed count. Blame Gmail and it being stupid, thinking that Lopen's Analyses belonged in the Spam folder!

Anyway, interesting Day 1 we got here. Knuckles should regain the 2nd soon, but Rikku still has plenty of time after to do something.
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
transience | Posted 9/3/2007 9:52:53 AM | message detail | #052
how are we scoring this? just the top two?

I like the idea of scoring all four predictions myself.
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 10:40:28 AM | message detail | #053
I actually want to do the Top 4 as well now. Perhaps two different ways can be done.

4 points overall, 1 to whoever predicts the closest percentage for each character (could be earned by up to 4 different people)

1 point to whoever predicts the Top 2 the closest
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
appestats | Posted 9/3/2007 10:51:55 AM | message detail | #054
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/3/2007 10:53:43 AM | message detail | #055
So that could be 5 points total per match, if you want to go that route..

Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed:
DpObliVion | Posted 9/3/2007 10:59:06 AM | message detail | #056
Maybe combine the total number of % points off for each character, and whoever has the least gets the point.

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/3/2007 12:57:45 PM | message detail | #057
I liked the idea of last year of just handing out a single point and then having seperate "consistency" standings by yo.
I have this fear that if I try anal, she'll fart, and my wang will pop out like a
champagne cork, sending me flying around the room.
- Bob the Cow V
Bokonon_Lives | Posted 9/3/2007 1:02:29 PM | message detail | #058
Moltar, did you get my email?
bokonon get your sense-making the **** out of this topic now - Cat1001
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 1:09:08 PM | message detail | #059
I'm not really sure how to do consistency rankings with this format.
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 2:29:12 PM | message detail | #060
I think the scoring should only consider the first and second place. With the priority in point earning being related to bracket points. That is, a guy with closer %s that gets the wrong order shouldn't get the point.

Correct order with closest percent > wrong order with closest percent. No point earned otherwise, as you'd get none with the bracket. This isn't the Oracle.
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 9/3/2007 4:56:31 PM | message detail | #061
Oh well, until next time!
"Eet's game time..."
ToadYoshi | Posted 9/3/2007 5:02:33 PM | message detail | #062
tag for future reading.
I did it for the lulz!
furryjenny | Posted 9/3/2007 5:17:40 PM | message detail | #063

Am I the only one who predicted Knuckles closer to Rikku than Yoshi?
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 5:21:37 PM | message detail | #064
I might try something like that, Lopen. Hopefully it won't get too confusing.
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Tails472 | Posted 9/3/2007 5:22:10 PM | message detail | #065
z0mg can i have a guest spot??? =P
Turbo Kirby | Posted 9/3/2007 5:24:40 PM | message detail | #066
Pineapple trees go down to Bermuda.
Lugia2 | Posted 9/3/2007 5:28:15 PM | message detail | #067
Wow, here we go again. I went with Yoshi>Rikku. Oops. I guess that's what happens when I say "no more cookie-cutting brackets!" XD
VIVA LA REVOLU-er, Wii!! Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much. Lugia2-1246-5250-1185
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 6:25:50 PM | message detail | #068
Consistency Rankings: The Prototype

Hey guys, I just quickly put this idea together based on Lopen's suggestion. Tell me what you think. This will be similar to the old rankings, although like the contest itself, a bit more complicated. I will be keeping two separate rankings: one for the first place finisher and one for the second place finisher. Two different factors will be taken into consideration when ranking a result: order and percentage (with order taking priority). Other than rambling on, it might be better to present an example.

It's the Mega Man/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Arthas match, and X and Y are the Crew members. Mega Man finishes first with 30%; Diablo finishes second with 29%.

X predicted Mega Man to win with 90%; Diablo to finish second with 5%.
Y predicted Diablo to win with 35%; Mega Man to finish second with 34%.

Even though Y had much more accurate percentages, he'd get less points in each instance for getting the order wrong. The rankings for the match would look like this:

First Place
1. X (2 points)
2. Y (1 point)

Second Place
1. X (2 points)
2. Y (1 point)

1. X (4 points)
2. Y (2 points)

Sound good?
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 6:34:56 PM | message detail | #069
Looks good to me. However, I'd suggest that maybe like the last time, picking the wrong pick would give you negative points. So in that case Y would have negative 2 instead of positive 2.

Then again... the negative points are what killed me in the consistency ratings so let's scrap that! Yes. (It also might be too strong a penalty, really.. you could get a pretty fierce negative score for getting the order swapped, when you'd still be getting points in the contest)

Or, maybe...

Order correct: 2X points
Order wrong: X points
Wrong guy: -X points.

Or maybe you can just use what you suggested since it's a lot easier to understand. Yeah, forget what I said, I think that looks fine.
ff6man | Posted 9/3/2007 6:37:09 PM | message detail | #070
I'm just about done my analysis, just wanted to see how the first match would go before I went for it.
--- NOW OPEN! Join if you wanna duel!
Six, Moderator of The League Online
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 6:38:37 PM | message detail | #071
I was thinking that people with the swapped order would still get positive points, just less than anyone with the correct order. Also, I think it would be fair to give incorrect picks (say, someone who picked KOS-MOS in my example) 0 points for the entire match. I know I gave out negatives in the past, but that might be too harsh for this contest. We're all going to be missing em left and right. >_>
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 6:41:06 PM | message detail | #072
Yeah, 0 points might be a better way to simplify it, too. I like that idea.
ff6man | Posted 9/3/2007 7:46:59 PM | message detail | #073
ughhh Moltar I can't find your email to send you my analysis, would you mind sending me one so I could learn it or posting it here or something? >_>

--- NOW OPEN! Join if you wanna duel!
Six, Moderator of The League Online
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 7:48:48 PM | message detail | #074
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 8:59:17 PM | message detail | #075
I don't have KH's write-up yet, but I'll be busy later so I have to post them now. KH can post his separately later.
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:00:08 PM | message detail | #076
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 2 – Arthas vs. Diablo vs. KOS-MOS vs. Mega Man

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Warcraft

Eh, I still say GTA should have won that match.

Game/Series Known From: Diablo
Seed in 2005: 5
Lost in 2005 to Sonic in Round 2

The dark horse of Spring 2005 returns.

Game/Series Known From: Xenosaga
Seed in 2003: 7
Seed in 2004: 8
Seed in 2005: 7
Seed in 2006: 3
Lost in 2003 to Samus in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Ryu in Round 1
Lost in 2005 to Luigi in Round 1
Lost in 2006 to Aeris in Round 2

Mmm…KOS-MOS, good to see her again, if you know what I mean.

Mega Man
Game/Series Known From: Mega Man
Seed in 2002: 6
Seed in 2003: 2
Seed in 2004: 1
Seed in 2005: 1
Seed in 2006: 2
Lost in 2002 to Sephiroth in Round 3
Lost in 2003 to Sephiroth in the Final 4
Lost in 2004 to Link in the Final 4
Lost in 2005 to Crono in the Final 4
Lost in 2006 to Solid Snake in the Elite 8

Mega’s back. Let’s hope he doesn’t embarrass himself again this year.

As bad as Mega Man looked last year, he has no problem of grabbing the #1 spot here.

Now let’s get to the part of the match that’s actually worth debating over? Who grabs #2? Well, the two most likely candidates are Diablo and KOS-MOS. If you go by stats, then 2006 KOS-MOS > Diablo > 2005 KOS-MOS. However, that doesn’t really help us here seeing as how 2006 x-stats can definitely be described as “lol”.

So since stats aren’t too effective, looks like there’s nothing else we can say…or is there? Well, KOS-MOS has an advantage in this match, and that’s having a hardcore RPG fanbase on her side. The theory is that these kind of characters should do well in this kind of format, as they have a dedicated (and usually vocal) fanbase that would vote their character over any opposition. Now we’ve seen KOS-MOS for 4 years straight, and each time she appears, she does decently. You can thank her fans for that.

Diablo is a bit different. He does have his fans, but they don’t seem all that loyal when he needs it. Two examples are Ganondorf and Sonic. Diablo, whose claim to fame was beating heavyweights like Ridley, M. Bison, and Kefka, ended up getting destroyed by Ganondorf. A little later, he gets whooped again by Sonic. This isn’t to say KOS-MOS is flawless here either, as she suffered an embarrassment at Luigi’s hands in 2005. Still, her track record here is better than Diablo’s.

Plus, we haven’t even gotten to another factor in this match, which is Arthas. Do I see him getting enough support to steal second here? No. However, I do see him getting some Blizzard love, and that’s another obstacle for Diablo. Just like with Rikku and Vaan, I can see a split of support between Diablo and Arthas as a hindrance here. Diablo (arguably) may be indirectly stronger than KOS-MOS, but thanks to a less loyal fanbase, and Arthas potentially getting a share of his votes, KOS-MOS has a better shot at #2.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mega Man > KOS-MOS > Diablo > Arthas

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mega Man: 56% - KOS-MOS: 19% - Diablo: 16% - Arthas: 9%

Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

When was the last time we had a tough match on the second day of a contest? Ness vs CJ? This one has the potential to be another "omgwtf I lost my perfect/zero on the second day I sux" match.

The first place character is easy enough to spot. Mega Man will take this, even though he's clearly on the decline. Capcom treating his series like crap is starting to catch up with him, and Mega could start falling bit by bit unless they save him with a *good* new game, like Mega Man X9 or Mega Man 9, not this Battle Network Transmission 46 Beta v9 junk.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:00:50 PM | message detail | #077
The other three is where it gets interesting. Contest strength indicates Diablo > KOS-MOS > Arthas (assuming Arthas is as craptacular as Kerrigan, and I don't see why he wouldn't be; Starcraft is a far more popular series than Warcraft. and its most popular character has done *nothing* in these contests), but if Arthas can syphon even a percent or two of votes away from Diablo, KOS-MOS could squeak into second place. Furthermore, this contest was slated to begin on September 3rd. That puts this match on a Tuesday, when the WoW servers are down for maintenance. Rallying/cheating will have a much bigger impact in a four-way poll than a heads-up, and even though Arthas won't get nearly the support that Warcraft did against GTA, he wouldn't need a whole hell of a lot. Unless he's weaker than Kerrigan, which he should be. I do enjoy his presence though, because the guy kicks ASS in Warcraft 3. The end of the first campaign is one of the best scenes ever in gaming. YouTube "Warcraft 3 Human ending" if you haven't seen it yet. I love how Lordaeron just lets him walk in with two Acolytes and all that death armor on, too. Idiots.

The only reason I haven't much faith in KOS-MOS pulling the upset is because ever since the original Xenosaga, she hasn't made any noise at all in contests. That and she's far enough behind Diablo that she'd need Arthas to take a LOT of votes from him if she hopes to snag second place. And we've already seen that Blizzard fans care about games enough to cheat and rally, but not so much with the characters. Kerrigan has been embarrassed twice, and Diablo's strength gets overrated to hell and back by his perceived strength from the villain's contest.

Going toe to toe with Kefka is not something to be proud of. Pac-Man did the same once. Though Diablo should still have enough strength in the tank to advance here.

Ulti's Prediction:

Mega Man [39.24%]
Diablo [24.75%]
KOS-MOS [20.72%]
Arthas [15.29%]

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Mega Man -- 59%
KOS-MOS -- 20%
Diablo -- 15%
Arthas -- 6%

My gut reaction to this match was to go with Diablo, but after thinking it over, and looking at certain polls, I decided against it. As far as one-on-one matches are concerned, I think KOS-MOS would end up beating Diablo without a whole lot of trouble. It wouldn’t be a blowout, but it wouldn’t be a barnburner either.

The main support for Diablo in this one is him being a Blizzard character (people hate picking against them for whatever reason) and him sharing the namesake of his series. But neither of those are something I’m willing to put a whole lot of faith in, particularly after we’ve seen him do so horribly in a multi-way poll before.

After the villains contest, there was a poll run asking “Who is really the baddest villain,” or something like that. Sephiroth came in first, obviously, Ganondorf put up a respectable second, CATS pulled third, Kefka was fourth, and Diablo brought up the distant rear. The thing about this is that Diablo had beaten Kefka in the contest, but lost to him here. That’s with Sephiroth in the very same poll.

With that in mind, and there being another Blizzard character to split up the hardcore Blizzard vote, I can’t see Diablo advancing out of this one. Sure, the competition he’s facing here isn’t as steep as Sephiroth, Ganon, Kefka, and CATS, but it’s hardly the ideal setting for him. I think KOS-MOS has enough to squeak by this one.

Oh, and of course, Mega Man dominates the poll.

Bracket: Mega Man > KOS-MOS
Vote: Arthas
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:02:09 PM | message detail | #078
Yoblazer’s Analysis

I don't get Blizzard. I've been doing the dirty contest dance for many years, and I've never once truly "gotten" Blizzard. The company punched my lights out with Starcraft in 2004, blessed me with Diablo in 2005, and slapped me across the face with Warcraft in 2006. If these contests are a family reunion, Blizzard is the bat**** uncle who compliments the food one minute and throws a turkey leg across the table the next.

It should come as no surprise, therefore, that a match featuring two god damned Blizzard characters has me a bit unnerved. Can the series-crossing combo of Diablo and Arthas be enough for everyone's favorite company to wreak havoc again? Let's examine this in further detail.

Upon first glance, anyone with some contest knowledge will recognize Mega Man as the elephant in the room. He'll easily clean up here and leave the other three competitors fighting for scraps. That ain't the challenge here, bucko! The challenge is in figuring out if either of the Blizzard entrants can draw a respectable enough rally to eek past KOS-MOS. Fortunately for KOSSY, going up against two characters who will possibly (probably?) be splitting fanbase votes is a benefit, not a detriment. If rallied votes from the Warcraft forums favor Arthas, Diablo will need his own source of votes. If the Diablo sites favor their series' namesake, the same holds true for Arthas. Obviously, the prospect of two concurring rallies from the same general fanbase diminishes the strength of the infamous "Blizzard rally," which has always been perceived as a very unified vote. This, combined with the fact that any rally will be much smaller and less effective in nature (seeing as how Mega Man will be soaking up most of the votes and rallied people from any source are now presented with more voting options), favors KOS-MOS.

On her own accord, the voluptuous cyborg is a contest veteran, possesses a small but dedicated fanbase, and has shown the ability to win matches. She is, according to past stats, also very comparable in strength to Diablo. I feel she also has a number of very tiny but potentially helpful factors in her favor, such as being the only female (bringing back TJF; good lord it's 2002 all over again!!11!) and console RPG character in the match. Combined, all these factors should give her just enough to nab the 20% or so needed to advance.

Mega Man (54%)
KOS-MOS (19%)
Diablo (18%)
Arthas (9%)

Lopen’s Analysis

Mega Man comes in first. Does anyone disagree? *looks around* Okay, good! Now, KOS-MOS comes in second... does anyone disagree? *angry mob forms* Damn. Alright, fine, I'll talk about second place!

Now, Diablo has looked clearly better in these contests in comparison to KOS-MOS. However, this four way thing throws a monkey wrench into the workings. Some might say that Arthas and Diablo share some sort of Blizzard fanbase, and KOS-MOS should be chosen because of that. To those people, I say "poppycock!" I don't expect a significant overlap between Warcraft and Diablo fans. The games are from the same company, and both for the PC... but... just nah. I think the appeal of the games are different enough, and that the PC gaming base for these two series is also big enough. Now, where does he get screwed if not by Arthas? Look no further than Mega Man.

Mega Man is a dangerous guy.. blowing the faces of fools clear off. Mega Man will take you and make you look much worse than you should (unless you're in a position to give him something resembling a challenge). KOS-MOS, with her devoted cult fanbase, can resist this face destruction better than Diablo can. Plus KOS-MOS is hot. Now I know Diablo is fresh out of the depths of hell, but he just can't compete with this. So she has the apathy vote, and the cult vote, which will be enough to counter Diablo's better casual vote which Mega Man will gladly turn to dust.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:02:36 PM | message detail | #079
Transience’s Analysis

KOS strikes me as one of those characters with a small-but-devoted fanbase. she's not as strong as Diablo, but she makes up for it in a four-way poll like this with her devoted fanbase. plus, she's a hot chick. that probably counts for something when you're dealing with ugly bastards like Diablo.

there's the possibility of Diablo and Arthas splitting votes here, seeing as they're both Blizzard characters. I don't think it's a very big deal though because I don't have a lot of respect for Arthas. (then again, I didn't have a lot of respect for Diablo in 2005 either, so maybe I'm underestimating him. plus, this match is on a TUESDAY OH HOLY CRAP IT'S A TUESDAY ARTHAS TO DA FINALS)

Leonhart pointed out this poll to me (and I'm probably not the only person to bring it up):

Poll 2020 (06/03/2005)
Is Sephiroth truly the greatest video game villain of all time?

36655 44.61% Yep, there's nobody badder
19977 24.31% No way, Ganondorf was much worse
5808 7.07% Yeah right, Diablo's where it's at
9485 11.54% Hardly, Kefka should have won it
10235 12.46% All my base are belong to CATS


that's a pretty crappy result from Diablo. hell, he beat Kefka in the Villain Contest and Kefka still outdid him despite the fact that Sephiroth was in the poll. am I reading too much into this? probably. but when you're being outpolled by guys like CATS and Kefka, you proooooobably don't have the most dedicated fanbase. KOS does have that, and while she isn't as popular, I have faith that they won't abandon her for Mega Man.

I can't say that about Diablo.

KOS-MOS is weaker
voters like hot android chicks
Diablo gets third

transience's prediction: Mega Man - 50.89%, KOS-MOS - 19.43%, Diablo - 16.77%, Arthas - 12.91%

Guest’s Analysis - Bokonon_Lives

Hay Board 8.

Fully acknowledging that the smart vote is Mega Man > KOS-MOS, here is my plea for a dark horse upset only a few stragglers saw coming. No, not Diablo.

Mega Man > ARTHAS.

Yeah, I'm crazy. There's a laundry list of reasons why that could never happen. To name a few:

Starcraft's success and Sarah Kerrigan's downfall.
Board consensus being that Diablo is about on par with KOS-MOS.
Diablo stealing Blizzard votes from Arthas.

But what's the point of a newcomer to this contest without some nuthead picking him to surprise us all?

Seriously, though... I'm not just talking out of my ass. There is a distinct possibility - just as there is a possibility Arthas will get last place - that the planets will align just right, and Arthas will sneak his way into second place.

Here's the pic. Take a close look.

Arthas has FAR AND AWAY the best pic. Most importantly, it's better than Diablo's (the worst of the four). Diablo as a franchise is still somewhat popular today, but especially put against a character that spans the gap between Warcraft 3 and World of Warcraft - arguably at least one-and-a-half game fanbases, at least the latter of which surpasses Diablo in popularity - it's getting weaker every day. Arthas' cold, dead, evil stare, instantly recognizable from the Warcraft 3 splash screen, combined with the recent exciting news of his entrance into the next World of Warcraft expansion (plus, as I said, looking way more badass than Diablo in this pic) should all combine to give Arthas enough of a boost to avoid what happened to Vaan on Day 1.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:04:20 PM | message detail | #080
Okay, Boko, so we've gone from fodder to mid-to-upper-level fodder. MAYBE even he beats Diablo. How can Arthas beat KOS-MOS, especi! ally with Diablo leeching at least a few votes from him?

The answer? I don't know.
But I'll make a case for it.
Arthas is the first character in the list and has enough of a badass pic that the truly diehard WoW fans will probably vote for him almost mindlessly.

KOS-MOS has a great pic as far as TJF goes, and I've been told that it's her most recognizable character art, but is it really? Whatever the case, it's a different pic than has usually been used for her in contests. If fans are used to, say....
it may take them a minute to make the connection between in-game model and cartoony portrait. No, it's not quite Amano art, but it is certainly different.

Meanwhile, forget pics... In her worst performance to date, KOS-MOS finished below Sam Fisher in both the non-adjusted and SFF-adjusted x-stats...... far below Diablo.

And finally... let's tackle SFF. World of Warcraft >> Diablo in popularity. I checked, and while it's pretty close on this site, it's a fact. Admittedly, Diablo > Warcraft 3 going by the GameFAQs game and message board rankings, but WoW alone gives Arthas a die-hard fanbase; W3 is the frosting on the cake. Arthas' pic advantage and arguably his first placement in the poll will give him an advantage over Diablo. And oh yeah......

Tuesday, Tuesday, Tuesday.

Arthas will officially have "The Horde" on his side this match.

That's a Horde that will unanimously vote for Arthas over Mega Man, unlike casual Xenosaga fans who might have to struggle with the decision.

The casual (and nostalgic) vote goes to Mega Man; Xenosaga fans are split between KOS-MOS and Mega Man; Diablo fans are split between Arthas, Diablo and Mega Man; the general RPG vote is split 3, maybe 4 ways; but true WoW fans will push Arthas almost exclusively. In a 1-on-1 match, this doesn't make enough ! difference. In a four-way, you'd better at least be nervous it matters more than robotic boobies.

Arthas Menethil: 20.10%
Diablo: 11.38%
KOS-MOS: 18.00%
Mega Man: 50.52%

Your friend,

P.S. I fully anticipate massive lulz from youze guyzes if Arthas should fail miserably. ;-)

Crew Consensus: 4 of us have Mega Man > KOS-MOS, 1 has Mega Man > Diablo, and our guest has Mega Man > Arthas. Who will fate side with?
DpObliVion | Posted 9/3/2007 9:04:35 PM | message detail | #081
DpOblivion's Unofficial Supposedly-Quick-But-Apparently-Not Analysis:

Okay, 1st place here is obvious: Mega Man. But who comes in 2nd place? My initial reaction is KOS-MOS, who's been a popular contest regular, from a relatively popular RPG which has a recent she's hot. But recently I've been worrying about Diablo, who on the backing of Blizzard and his tear through the Villains bracket, cannot be ignored. However, as Vaan stole Rikku's chance of advancing thanks to SFF today, will Arthas doom Diablo on Day 2?

I believe the biggest factor in who moves on is actually how well Mega Man performs. I certainly think he is capable of at least breaking 50% in this match. But can he get up to 60%? 2 years ago, he beat Yoshi with 68%, who is easily winning today's matchup. In 2003, he broke 60% on Zelda. Last year, he got 54 1/4% on Sora, a very popular RPG character. It's hard to compare, with him facing 3 opponents here, but do their combined strengths compare to the single strengths of those like Yoshi, Zelda, and Sora? I'm feeling pretty confident that Mega Man at least get close to the 60% mark.

So, with a little benefit of the doubt, let's give him 58%. That leaves 42% to divide between KOS-MOS, Diablo, and Arthas. How much of that can KOS-MOS take? She's done pretty well against weaker opponents, but has really faltered against top competition, so with Mega Man in there, there's some worries. But her loyal fanbase has always kept her above 30%, even against Samus (though in 2003). Xenosaga III has also been out for over a year now, so she could get a nice boost from that, too. And I don't really see the Blizzard characters taking votes from her. Still, 30% is way too much to assume for her in this format, but I don't think 20% is too much of a stretch. Like Mega Man, I'll play it safe and go down to 18%.

Can Diablo get more than 20%? I think so. But here's where the problem lies: Arthas, from the hotter Blizzard series at the moment, WarCraft. Even though he's from the WarCraft series, I don't expect him to do all that well. But if you give Mega Man 58%, and KOS-MOS 18%, that doesn't leave him with a whole lot of breathing room. There's 24% remaining. That means that Arthas would only need to break 6% to take enough away from Diablo to ruin his chances. And hell, even Vaan is managing ~9.5% with Rikku there.

Again, the key here is how well Mega Man does. The less he gets, the more breathing room Diablo has, the better chance Diablo has of advancing. But I think Mega Man will get enough to allow KOS-MOS to advance on through.

But I could certainly be wrong....from now on, I'm adding a Confidence percentage to my prediction, and as you'll see, my confidence here isn't too high. I may be giving Mega Man too much credit here....

DpOblivion's bracket says: Mega Man > KOS-MOS

DpOblivion's prediction is: Mega Man > KOS-MOS

Confidence level: 55%

Mega Man - 57%
KOS-MOS - 18.5%
Diablo - 16.5%
Arthas - 8%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2007 9:06:32 PM | message detail | #082
Kay Aitch's Oft-Ignored Analysis

Today we have our classic match featuring a Noble Niner dominating while three substandard characters battle it out for first place. KOS-MOS has always been a consistent gal more or less, just hovering around low midcarder range and snagging a couple of wins over fodder in her contest career. Diablo has been a fair bit more exciting, storming many a bracket in the Villains Contest as he made the Final Four, but his contest history has been much more brief. Arthas is a newcomer, one that people are down on because they fear he'll suffer from "Kerrigan syndrome" (never mind that he has quite a bit more going for him than Kerrigan), and one whose problems are compounded with fellow Blizzard rep Diablo in the mix.

The consensus pick here among those who don't make their brackets based off of Blizzardfear is KOS-MOS. And while I've doubted her strength, it's hard to argue that she doesn't have the hardcore fans to thrive in this setting.

That being said... I'm gonna go with Diablo here (unlike my bracket, and we all know that thing's starting out in a sorry shape). I see the Diablo and WarCraft fanbases being fairly independent, as well as strong enough on their own to carry one of their representatives to a victory. Factor in that Diablo shares the name of his game and that I feel he would win decisively against either competitor in a one-on-one match... it's an upset, but one that more and more I feel is gonna happen. So I'll throw my lot in with Blizzard this time. It's not like such an entity making an upset is unprecedented. <.<

Karma Hunter's Vote: Arthas. I may not be able to play WC3 worth beans, but the Lich King has always had my favor.
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Mega Man with 49.5%, Diablo with 20.7%, KOS-MOS with 17.7%, Arthas Menethil with 12.1%

Upset Probability: 65%

After seeing today's match, I feel confident in asserting how many ways matches can go "wonky" in this setting. Mega Man's 1st is virtually assured, but KOS-MOS can easily come in second, as I already explained. And there's even a bit of a case to be made for Arthas, however slight. AFTER ALL LOL TUESDAY FACTOR
delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/3/2007 9:07:27 PM | message detail | #083
Augh @ crappy guest upsets

Way to make the rest of us look like crap guys.

Interesting to see most of the crew having similar percentages (except for Lopen who seems to have none) as I do. Then again, crew consensus isn't always a good thing

"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:08:40 PM | message detail | #084

Lopen's Prediction:
Mega Man – 52.58%
KOS-MOS – 21.12%
Diablo – 19.28%
Arthas - 7.02%

Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:10:21 PM | message detail | #085
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/3/2007 9:10:34 PM | message detail | #086
Round 1- Division 1 Group B

Characters Involved


Newcomer to the field and the first Warcraft character to make the bracket. Basically the Sarah Kerrigan of the Warcraft universe, I don't expect him to be much stronger than his Starcrafty predecessor. Although rallying did put Warcraft over the favoured GTA in the series contest.


Spring 2005 Contest
Ruin Division - 7 Seed

Ruin Round 1 --- Defeated (2) Ridley, 42796 [57.65%] - 31438 [42.35%]
Ruin Semifinal --- Defeated (6) M. Bison, 44627 [52.88%] - 39761 [47.12%]
Ruin Final --- Defeated (1) Kefka, 45547 [54.09%] - 38660 [45.91%]
Final Four - Lost to (1) Ganondorf, 30345 [34.80%] - 56848 [65.20%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [29.12%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Chaos Division - 5 Seed

Chaos Round 1 --- Defeated (4) Kratos Aurion, 48783 [56.76%] - 37162 [43.24%]
Chaos Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Sonic the Hedgehog, 28954 [31.45%] - 63014 [68.55%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 35th Place [22.20%]

Truly the Cinderella of the 2k5 Villain contest, most had him going down to Ridley in the first round. Well, he turned around and ended up destroying his division en route to ranking 4th place in the contest (behind Ganon Bowser and Sephiroth of course). He's proven himself to be a decent midcarder and is one of the contenders for the second spot in this poll.


Summer 2003 Contest
North Division - 7 Seed

Northern Round 1 --- Defeated (10) Crash Bandicoot, 61141 [61.98%] - 37510 [38.02%]
Northern Quarterfinal --- Lost to (2) Samus, 34246 [30.25%] - 78948 [69.75%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 36th Place [22.22%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Chaos Division - 8 Seed

Chaos Round 1 --- Lost to (9) Ryu, 31954 [37.87%] - 52425 [62.13%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 31st Place [22.60%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Chaos Division - 7 Seed

Chaos Round 1 --- Lost to (2) Luigi, 36187 [34.00%] - 70232 [66.00%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 45th Place [19.52%]

Summer 2006 Contest
Triforce Division - 3 Seed

Triforce Round 1 --- Defeated (6) Amy Rose, 67068 [65.43%] - 35441 [34.57%]
Triforce Semifinal --- Lost to (2) Aeris, 43543 [38.35%] - 70006 [61.65%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 31st Place [29.59%]

KOS-MOS has always been a decent midcarder (aside from her huge fall in 2k5) and her performance against Aeris last year is likely the main reason much of Board 8 has her moving on from this match. It will be interesting to see how she does now that she no longer has new games to keep her fresh.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:11:11 PM | message detail | #087
I see the e-mail now KH, I literally checked for it a minute before you sent it.

So looks like another joins Ulti with Mega Man > Diablo
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/3/2007 9:11:19 PM | message detail | #088
Mega Man

Summer 2002 Contest
West Division - 6 Seed

Western Round 1--- Defeated (11) Ms. Pac-Man, 63039 [92.30%] - 5257 [7.70%]
Western Quarterfinal --- Defeated (3) Serious Sam, 60914 [91.84%] - 5414 [8.16%]
Western Semifinal --- Lost to (7) Sephiroth, 48185 [49.49%] - 49172 [50.51%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 3rd Place [42.91%]

Summer 2003 Contest
West Division - 2 Seed

Southern Round 1 --- Defeated (15) Mr. Resetti, 91905 [88.96%] - 11400 [11.04%]
Southern Quarterfinal --- Defeated (10) Zelda, 65528 [60.75%] - 42329 [39.25%]
Southern Semifinal --- Defeated (3) Tommy Vercetti, 75551 [66.86%] - 37456 [33.14%]
Southern Final --- Defeated (1) Solid Snake, 63639 [53.50%] - 55322 [46.50%]
Final Four --- Lost to (7) Sephiroth, 48213 [38.82%] - 75979 [61.18%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [38.60%]

Summer 2004 Contest
20XX Division - 1 Seed

20XX Round 1--- Defeated (16) Earthworm Jim, 70219 [82.98%] - 14406 [17.02%]
20XX Quarterfinal --- Defeated (8) Tidus, 57069 [64.78%] - 31033 [35.22%]
20XX Semifinal --- Defeated (4) Zero, 46849 [56.01%] - 36800 [43.99%]
20XX Final --- Defeated (2) Solid Snake, 50116 [57.19%] - 37517 [42.81%]
Final Four --- Lost to (1) Link, 30622 [32.39%] - 63913 [67.61%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 6th Place [35.99%]

Summer 2005 Contest
20XX Division - 1 Seed

20XX Round 1 --- Defeated (8) Conker, 75807 [76.02%] - 23913 [23.98%]
20XX Semifinal --- Defeated (5) Leon Kennedy, 60391 [64.56%] - 33154 [35.44%]
20XX Final --- Defeated (3) Yoshi, 63395 [68.08%] - 29719 [31.92%]
Elite Eight --- Defeated (1) Sonic, 49841 [50.37%] - 49099 [49.63%]
Final Four --- Lost to (2) Crono, 50479 [48.65%] - 53283 [51.35%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [35.55%]

Summer 2006 Contest
Destiny Division - 2 Seed

Destiny Round 1 --- Defeated (7) Axel, 81959 [69.87%] - 35340 [30.13%]
Destiny Semifinal --- Defeated (6) Ryu, 69626 [58.04%] - 50342 [41.96%]
Destiny Final --- Defeated (1) Sora, 72630 [54.28%] - 61167 [45.72%]
Quarterfinal --- Lost to (1) Solid Snake, 56648 [44.67%] - 70163 [55.33%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 6th Place [41.89%]

Mega Man, while a far cry from his glory days in 2k2, is still a major force to be reckoned with in these contests. Last year he was a member of the bottom tier of the Noble Nine (right alongside Sonic and Crono) despite many people calling for his head after he was destroyed by Snake. When Snake put similar numbers on Sonic the very next round, it became clear that all of Mega Man's previous matches that year were the legitimate strengths of his opponents. The only way he doesn't come first in this match is if hell freezes over, and since Diablo hasn't taken Arthas' spot on the Frozen Throne, I think it's safe to call this a lock.


Mega Man is a lock to dominate this match. We're talking 50-60% here, unless you're one of the knobs who think he's under Vincent/Ganondorf as of last year.

So the question will be who gets second? All 3 of his opponents have a legitimate chance, and it's likely to be somewhat close. The deciding factor though, in my opinion, will be Xenosaga's RPG cult fanbase going up against a divided Blizzard vote. If it had been any other character in Arthas' place, I'd have given this to Diablo without hesitation. But Blizzard doesn't have nearly enough strength to stand divided like Rikku did today.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/3/2007 9:12:11 PM | message detail | #089
Which brings us to the percentage.

Running last year's stats with Mega Man and KOS-MOS gives us a 65-35 affair. Of course that is with a likely underrated Mega Man and a likely overrated KOS-MOS, so let's bump that up a smidge to 70-30. Running 2k5 MM against Diablo gives us a similar number, so it will be safe to say that the split between Diablo/Arthas and KOS-MOS will be nearly even, with Diablo/Arthas getting a bigger chunk due to an aging KOS-MOS and an increase in World of Warcraft userbase. So my thoughts are something along the lines of 52-21-17-10 for Mega Man, KOS-MOS, Diablo and Arthas. Expect the three weaker characters to do best at night while Mega Man blasts them all away during the day-time.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Mega Man 52%, KOS-MOS 21%, Diablo 17% and Arthas 10%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Mega Man > KOS-MOS
TuRtLe's Vote: Mega Man

"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
chocoboslayer | Posted 9/3/2007 9:12:34 PM | message detail | #090
omfg tag
PotD's OFFICIAL King of Games!
The Choco. The Cream of Yuna Fanboyism.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2007 9:14:45 PM | message detail | #091
Heh, it's fine, Moltar. I was lucky to get it in as is after procrastinating, I'll try to be more timely in the following days.
delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
DpObliVion | Posted 9/3/2007 9:18:56 PM | message detail | #092
My percentages suck....

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:23:43 PM | message detail | #093
Good write-ups once again. I especially like Hit or Miss's point about Diablo getting hurt more by Mega Man than Arthas.
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Bokonon_Lives | Posted 9/3/2007 9:30:50 PM | message detail | #094
Good write-ups, guys. I look forward to my ass getting handed to me.
bokonon get your sense-making the **** out of this topic now - Cat1001
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 9:57:18 PM | message detail | #095
Good analyses, guys. Good to see the power of haiku return to tranny's analysis, too. Why didn't I think of such a marvelous gimmick?

... and this is a conspiracy against me! Well, at least without the %s, you get 100% quality content. No skipping to the end here!

Interesting that Ulti expects Arthas to be weak like Kerrigan, yet still has him managing 15% here from rallying. If that's the case... well, it's a shame there aren't any strong Warcraft characters I guess. Rallying could be very fun and effective in this format, I suppose, I didn't really rate it as much of a threat... but it's like 4x as effective, thinking about it. "Old'd/19" as you kids say, I'm sure.

Someone go gather from the Bungie homepage for later!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:52:07 PM | message detail | #096
Knuckles vs. Rikku vs. Vaan vs. Yoshi
First Place
+8 Mo
+7 Guest
+6 KH
+5 Lo
+4 tran
+3 Yo
+2 Ulti
+1 HM

Second Place
+8 KH (tie)
+8 Yo (tie)
+6 HM
+5 Ulti
+4 Guest
+3 tran
+2 Mo
+1 Lo

Overall Rankings
1. Karma Hunter (14)
2. Board 8 (11)
2. Yoblazer33 (11)
4. Master Moltar (10)
5. Heroic Mario (7)
5. transience (7)
5. UltimaterializerX (7)
8. Lopen (6)

yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2007 11:53:11 PM | message detail | #097
Time to enjoy being up top while I can! <<
delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 11:54:58 PM | message detail | #098
Familiar grounds, last place in the consistency rankings...

I haven't even gone hit or miss, yet!
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 7:20:07 AM | message detail | #099
wow, big ups to our guest here. even if Arthas doesn't pull it off, he's already proven that it was a legitimate pick, something most of us didn't really believe.
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:32:31 AM | message detail | #100
Yeah, lol BT. Whilst I don't actually want Arthas to finish second, good going for Boko proving he aint an idiot.

Did better than I thought yesterday too. Woo pulling Board 8 into joint second!
"Eet's game time..."