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Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew

Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 1:57:13 PM | message detail | #001
In a twist that no one on this board would have expected, I have decided to do the unthinkable. I will, once again, host the Contest Analysis Crew for the 6th Character Battle! Shocking, huh?

Most of you guys know the drill by now, but for those who are new to this, here's a short explanation. The Contest Analysis Crew (or The Crew, or AC, whatever you want to call us) is a group of users who know how these Contests work. Our duty is to analyze each match and predict who will win each match and the percentages each character will get. Now, our record isn't perfect, but we've been more right than wrong, so that counts for something!

Now it's time for the Introductions! Here are the regulars of The Crew for this Contest. Just let me pull out the old file cabinet and...ahh yes.

Master Moltar
- Founder of the Contest Analysis Crew
- Has participated in each Contest since 2003
- Likes Ganondorf...almost too much

Okay, that's one. Now, next is...

- Member of The Crew since Spring 2004
- Winner of the Spring Contest in 2004
- He called it

Two down, five to go! Next is...

Heroic Mario
- Man of 1000 usernames (now known as ZFS)
- Man of 1000 favorite characters and games
- Member of The Crew since Spring 2006

Then we have...

- Member of The Crew since Spring 2006
- Ended on the leaderboard in 2004 twice and 2005
- Has some sort of Ariel obsession

Little over half way there...

- Member of The Crew since Spring 2006
- Has rightfully earned the nickname "Hit or Miss"
- Loves any character with white hair or a green suit

Only a few more...

Karma Hunter
- Member of The Crew since Summer 2006
- He is so smart. S-M-R-T
- ___________ is so screwed.

One more left!

- Warning! Challenger approaching!
- Goes by the name "trannyscience"
- Better not mess up or he's outta here!

Oh, and one more thing. Returning for this Contest will be the ever-so-popular Guest spot! That's right, if you sign up for it, then you can write an analysis for the Crew! Currently, sign-ups for the first four divisions are filled, but the next four should open up soon. Currently, here is who we have so far.

Knuckles the Echidna/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Luis_Sera89
Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - Bokonon_Lives
Axel/Frog/Samus/Kerrigan - ff6man
Agent 47/Kratos A./Midna/Scorpion - yoshifan823

Kefka/Marcus/Tom/Zelos- Black Turtle
Cloud/Jill/Zolom/Ocelot - Zylo the wolf
Auron/Chris/Pyramid Head/Shadow - MasterMage
Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu/Toad - Janus5000

CATS/Meta-Knight/Peach/Sephiroth - Xenobi
Banjo/Falcon/Fox/Wario - Haste2
Big Boss/Mario/Pac-Man/Wander - ScorpionX3
Bomberman/Crash/Phoenix/Magus - Kleenex

Agent J/Bidoof/Link/Miles - Big Bob
Tails/The Boss/Vincent/Zelda - th3l3fty
Crono/Sam/Simon/Raiden - Lady Ashe
HK-47/Lloyd/Jak/Zero - Who Cares?

And there we go. The write-ups for the first match should be up this evening, so enjoy readers!
Moltar Status: Bored and slightly sarcastic.
The Analysis Crew...believe
LinkLegend27 | Posted 9/2/2007 1:58:07 PM | message detail | #002
Sig goes here.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/2/2007 1:58:43 PM | message detail | #003
Did you get my e-mail today?

Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed:
Bokonon_Lives | Posted 9/2/2007 1:59:59 PM | message detail | #004
Tag so I remember to send mine in.

I'm sorry, I would likely have had my analysis in this afternoon, but I seem to have lost my original writeup, so I'll have to start from scratch. I'll have it in before the deadline though, so don't worry.
bokonon get your sense-making the **** out of this topic now - Cat1001
Lopen | Posted 9/2/2007 2:05:13 PM | message detail | #005
Loves any character with white hair or a green suit

... DIE LUIGI DIE! The rest... you may have a point.

At no inconvenience to me I should have my write-ups in by 7:30pm ET. I could get them to you earlier though, if you need them sooner.
DpObliVion | Posted 9/2/2007 2:07:25 PM | message detail | #006
I've been wondering where this topic went....

I'll continue to contribute my unofficial analyses alongside you guys!

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 2:07:34 PM | message detail | #007
I got it. In fact, I also have e-mails from HM, Luis (Guest for 1st match) and Tran too.
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
NominateSerge | Posted 9/2/2007 2:07:49 PM | message detail | #008
- Likes Ganondorf...almost too much

If you like Ganondorf at all, you like him too much.
Vote for Serge.
Delseban | Posted 9/2/2007 2:09:41 PM | message detail | #009
So is this 'The Crew' seperate from Smurf's?
I am fourteen =God is fake and annoying like your face feet odor I love squirrels grits nuts yum kirby Kodadra. feces are baby mice! Conshy Pee nice Bees belong Donkeys at Gotham I liek AerisDS and.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 2:09:42 PM | message detail | #010
I probably should have put green armor now that I think about it.

If you like Ganondorf at all, you like him too much.

Back to you're own topic, Leon! There shall be none of that here!
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
linkhatesganon | Posted 9/2/2007 2:17:43 PM | message detail | #011
Yeap, it does seem this is the other Crew. To enter this Crew, I guess you should score many points at the bracket, right?

I want to do also some analysis, but I prefer to wait for a match for round 2 if I can choose, so, I can see many models of analysis. And if I can choose a certain match, I want the Link/Zelda/Vincent/other. If it has to be one for the 1st round, I don't care what match, but I really like all Link, Zelda, Vincent and, if he advances, Miles, so, I'd like to do that one.
Onimimi's films rules!
leadrboardsteve | Posted 9/2/2007 2:21:44 PM | message detail | #012
I'd very much like to do a guest analysis when more spots open up, and I look forward to seeing the analysiss? analysisi? whatever, the plural of analysis, that you guys bring to the board.
"I didn't think ninjas had super strength!"
"He's a doctor too!"
DpObliVion | Posted 9/2/2007 2:22:42 PM | message detail | #013
Yeap, it does seem this is the other Crew.

No, this is the Crew. Anyone else is just imitators.

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 9/2/2007 3:04:37 PM | message detail | #014

I can't wait to see what happens this year!
"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
SurfingVaporeon | Posted 9/2/2007 3:09:25 PM | message detail | #015
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/2/2007 3:10:09 PM | message detail | #016
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Guess how many teens | Posted 9/2/2007 3:10:50 PM | message detail | #017
Be kind to europeans and don't post them too late >_> :p
I got owned by Rufus Shinra, the 2k6 CB Guru Champion!
The Cream of Smurf FODDER
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 9:34:08 PM | message detail | #018
Be kind to europeans and don't post them too late >_> :p

Blame Lopen. Anyway, I'm about to post them now, so Lopen can throw his in sometime after.
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 9:35:25 PM | message detail | #019
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 1 – Knuckles vs. Rikku vs. Vaan vs. Yoshi

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Sonic
Seed in 2002: 7
Seed in 2003: 8
Seed in 2004: 10
Seed in 2005: 6
Lost in 2002 to Snake in Round 2
Lost in 2003 to Snake in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Snake in Round 2
Lost in 2005 to Squall in Round 2

Knuckles makes his glorious return to the Contest scene.

Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy X
Seed in 2005: 7
Seed in 2006: 3
Lost in 2005 to Ryu in Round 1
Lost in 2006 to Samus in Round 3

She looked pretty good last year. Can she keep it up?

Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy XII

A fellow female from the FF series joins Rikku…….wait, what?

Game/Series Known From: Super Mario
Seed in 2003: 4
Seed in 2004: 5
Seed in 2005: 3
Seed in 2006: 6
Lost in 2003 to Bowser in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Link in Round 3
Lost in 2005 to Mega Man in Round 3
Lost in 2006 to Solid Snake in Round 3

The Mario fan-favorite hopes he can continue his streak of Contest luck.

Finally, a return to Contest season. I’m not going to lie; I’ve missed the dumb arguments, angry rants and overall craziness of the board during Contest time. This time, we have something we’ve never seen before. I mean, usually I, along with the rest of the Crew and other analysts, can make a pretty good guess on the result of a match by using past data and current trends. However, a four-way poll format throws a wrench in just about everything. Expect the unexpected for something like this. I also apologize in advance to our readers, who may notice that we might be a bit more wrong than usual this time around.

So anyway, the first match isn’t really the toughest to predict. It’s not as obvious as a Noble Nine 1-seed vs. Why are you even here fodder 16-seed, but still nothing compared to some of the later matches.

Returning from last year are Yoshi and Rikku. Yoshi looked a bit off in Round 1, when he allowed Riku to get 45% on him, but turned everything around when he beat Dante and performed almost too well against Solid Snake. Rikku also did decently last year. She looked a bit shaky in her match with Kairi, but performed as expected against Samus.

Knuckles, who we last saw in 2005 when he ultimately destroyed Magus, should be just as strong, if not stronger, as he was then. Vaan, being the sole newcomer here, may have stood a chance somewhere else, but here? He’s done for.

So basically, we have Yoshi and Knuckles, who are not only two fan-favorites from their respective series, but also the two strongest characters in this match stats-wise, against two weaker Final Fantasy characters. There should be a split there, with Rikku taking a better portion of Vaan’s vote. It’s not too important though, as Yoshi and Knuckles should be the runaway favorites here. Yoshi is stronger than Knuckles, so that should give him the #1 spot. But as I said before, anything could happen with this format.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Yoshi > Knuckles > Rikku > Vaan

Moltar’s Prediction is: Yoshi: 35% - Knuckles: 32% - Rikku: 22% - Vaan: 11%

Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

Took a little bit for me to decide, but Ulti is back and on board for another Crew! I'm glad I changed my mind too, as this bracket kicks ass. I'll try to make my writeups a lot better this contest, as I don't want to let Moltar down.

For the first time ever, we don't have an overall #1 seed or a dominant Nintendo entity in the first match. And the entire contest being fourpacks just kicks all *kinds* of ass. Four-way matches open up all kinds of weird-ass SFF possibilities and odd results, and this contest should be the best we've had since the Spring of 2004.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 9:37:30 PM | message detail | #020
It's also the first opening match that isn't painfully obvious. Well, not as obvious as in years past. Yoshi and Knuckles are fairly easy choices, though Rikku might have an outside chance to spoil the party if she's as strong as she was in the Summer 2006 Contest. Vaan is somewhat of a wild card in this match, as he'll either suck votes away from Rikku or boost her to hell via SFF. The latter is more likely, as Vaan is one of the most hated Square characters ever. I doubt this will help Rikku a whole lot, but who knows.

The other thing worth noting is that picking order in these matches matters, though I'm not 100% sure how the scoring works. If you pick Yoshi > Knuckles and it ends up Knuckles > Yoshi, do you get no points? Either way, it's difficult to pick who will come in first between Yoshi and Knuckles. They're very close in the stats, and there has never, EVER been a reasonable read on Yoshi. He was behind SFF from 2003-2005, and then he was overrated in 2006 due to facing Sprite Snake.

The other interesting thing to note here is that both characters do well in multi-poll matches because of being fan favorites. Yoshi won not one, but two favorite Mario character polls (over Mario, no less), and Knuckles did win a favorite Sonic character poll back in the day.

That said, I hereby dub the Golden Rule of this contest: "When in doubt, go with Nintendo". I've got Yoshi just barely edging out Knuckles for first place.

Ulti's Prediction:

Yoshi [31.85%]

Knuckles [30.56%]

Rikku [21.21%]

Vaan [16.38%]

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Yoshi -- 41%
Knuckles -- 30%
Rikku -- 22%
Vaan -- 7%

Pretty obvious choices on this one -- Yoshi and Knuckles. The only interesting bit that will come out of this one is seeing who wins, and by what margin.

After last year’s impressive showing, I’d confidently say that Yoshi has this one without too much problem. He managed to pull a close one out against a post-DMC3 Dante, and then went on to put up a respectable showing against Snake (I think he wasn’t too far away from Squall’s percentage). To add to that, his contest history as a whole has been better, beating and facing stronger opponents. He also has reason to keep getting stronger, which makes him the clear choice for me.

Rikku and Vaan... I can’t see them doing very much here. They’re going to eat into the other’s votes by both being Square. Without Vaan, I’d say Rikku could have the potential to surprise, but even though he’s going to be weak, he should steal enough away from her to make her a non-factor in this one, insofar as advancing.

But yeah, with the continued Nintendo dominance here, Yoshi shouldn’t have much of a problem taking this one without trouble. He’s a huge fan favorite from the Mario series and has the more impressive track record. Pretty easy. If he can really dominate here, things will look good for him heading into round 2, too.

Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles

Vote: Yoshi

Yoblazer’s Analysis

New contest? First time in seemingly ages? Yes, oh yes! Few things in life bring such joy to this nerd's pitiful life, so suffice it to say, I'm going to cherish every moment. My fellow stats junkies and kind readers, for the first time in over a year, let us, together clothed in the finest silks, jewelries, and breast plates of gamerdom, do the dance of the Character Battle!

Before I dive into this first match, I'd like to give a hearty hello to the man in charge, Master Moltar, along my fellow returning analysts, and a fond welcome to the new analysts and guests. Let's have a good one!
LinkLegend27 | Posted 9/2/2007 9:37:54 PM | message detail | #021
Sig goes here.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 9:38:21 PM | message detail | #022
OK, first match. Knuckles vs. Rikku. Rikku may be a bit wasted here, but for Knuckles's sake, he once again finds himself far, far away from the bane of his existence, Solid Sn... wait. There are more letters here! More letters, words, choices... entrants? Vaan? Yoshi? What is this new devilry? That's right, folks! It's the biggest twist in the history of these contests - for the first time ever, each match will be fought between FOUR entrants! Fortunately for us, this opens doors to new worlds of strategies and theories, and I just hope most of mine don't fall flat on their face.

Our first match is between Knuckles, Rikku, Vaan, and Yoshi. While Rikku has shown promise in the past and Vaan is one of the stars of Square's newest Final Fantasy, this battle is clearly one between two of this site's absolute fan favorites. Knuckles and Yoshi should do a semi-decent job cleaning house, and they'll be helped by the fact that Rikku and Vaan (who somehow manages to make Tidus look more masculine than the entire cast of 300) will be splitting the Square vote. So, this becomes a question of who'll eek out more votes and come away with the top spot: the echidna or the dino. It could very well be close, but I feel Yoshi's strong performances last year, his status as a bigtime fan favorite in the Mario series, and his being the lone Nintendo representative in the poll, should give him first place. Let's hope that these two can get this contest off to an exciting start.

Yoshi (32%)
Knuckles (29%)
Rikku (24%)
Vaan (15%)

Karma Hunter’s Analysis

Hey, KH here, ready for an inaugural analysis on what is surely the most controversial contest we've ever had. Four characters a day, 128 characters, two move on. I'm not sure how any of this is going to work out, percentages are a crapshoot, and only Link winning appears to be anything resembling a lock.

Fortunately, the first match seems to be clear enough on the two winners - Yoshi and Knuckles, both powerful upper midcarders at least in their own right. However, for the first time in contest history our first match has debate: Who comes in first? That's nearly as important as the first conclusion.

Most signs point to Yoshi though... he's Nintendo, Knuckles isn't. He made it in last contest, Knuckles didn't. With his quality win over Dante and great performance on Snake (regardless of the INSANE dubiousness), he's just got more going for him than Knux. Next round the echidna might stand a bit of a chance, but as it is? Love to, but I can't take him.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Knuckles the Echidna
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Yoshi with 34% of the vote, Knuckles with 29%, Rikku with 21%, Vaan with 16%

Wow, what a crapshoot... I would totally expect to bomb this thing if I thought anyone else had any idea what I was doing.

Upset Prediction: 50%

A pretty damn high upset prediction? Yeah, with four characters in the poll (and two that I've just ignored, Rikku actually having something of a chance), that's gonna be the norm this contest. Knuckles beat Magus, and we really don't have the best of reads on him since then. I doubt Yoshi would get 47% on Squall... but was Knuckles' 47% legit? The Devil Division's debate of overratedness looms still, and while I don't trust Knuckles, it makes him the wildcard here.

Let's not forget fanbase overlap either. Yoshi and Knuckles are gonna be pretty similar in voter appeal, and we haven't seen much Mario/Sonic interaction - when we do, weird stuff happens. If Yoshi were to say, SFF Knuckles to any extent, Rikku could propel herself to victory on the back of the Square fanbase and the much weaker Vaan.

And maybe people even like Vaan a lot of something! ...okay, never mind.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 9:38:49 PM | message detail | #023
Transience’s Analysis

aww yeah, new contest. it's about time! it's going to be tricky to know exactly what's going to happen until we've seen a couple days of this contest. I'm fairly certain that a *ton* of Weird Stuff is going to happen throughout this contest, stuff nobody is going to see coming. trying to guess percentages for this monstrosity is going to be hilarious. I can't wait.

anyway, our first match is interesting. Yoshi and Knuckles are basically the same character type, only from rival series'. both are fan-favourites that should do great in multi-option polls. both of them have won their "favourite character" polls in the past, beating out Mario and Sonic respectively. does it mean much when talking about a four-way poll with characters of different series'? probably not, but you have to respect someone who can beat stronger characters convincingly like that.

I actually think that Yoshi and Knuckles might split votes here due to their fan-favourite side character status. Mario and Sonic has shown to have some form of overlap before, and they're both characters from platformers. Rikku would have a good chance to sneak into second place here.. if not for Vaan. I don't expect Vaan to have much strength here - who the hell would vote friggin' Vaan over two classic characters and a character from a more popular FF game? - but he'll steal enough votes to make sure Yoshi and Knuckles aren't threatened. the end percentage is unpredictable, but I feel confident with Yoshi and Knuckles finishing 1-2.

rikku had a chance
too bad vaan made the bracket
yoshi beats knuckles

transience's prediction: Yoshi - 33.45%, Knuckles - 31.41%, Rikku - 25.35%, Vaan - 9.79%

Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera89

We waited a long time for it but I guess the bracket didn’t disappoint, eh? It wasn’t unheard of that some quarters on Board 8 felt the Character Battle was getting a little stale, so Bacons provided us with 4 way matches with the best 2 progressing! Great! Then I realised I had to come of with percentage predictions for them… Crap! And so it’s with some relief that the great crapshoot of 2007 begins with what looks to be a mercifully straightforward selection.

Only few would argue against Yoshi and Knuckles progressing ahead of the two Final Fantasy characters in this opening match-up. For starters they’re the statistically stronger characters, certainly ahead of Rikku at least. Vaan is an unknown quantity, but as I’ll elaborate later, he isn’t seen as much of a threat to the dino and echidna, especially with his Square buddy also in the mixer. Also helping is the fact that there is no obvious overlap between Yoshi and Knuckles, a factor that will probably reign supreme in a handful of upcoming matches, and it’s unlikely that the Nintendo and Sega fan bases respectively will abandon them. And so, onto the characters themselves.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 9:39:39 PM | message detail | #024
After many years of solid, if unspectacular participation in the contest, Yoshi is entering this year off the back of his best performance yet. Always seemingly lumbered with a predictable path, crushing all below him but usually falling equally painfully to the elite above him, Yoshi faced off with Dante, and although close, he never really looked in danger of losing. Although he started as the slight bracket favourite, despite never being shown to be stronger than the DMC lead, it was Dante who was expected to triumph based on their 1st round showings – Dante *****-slapping Ryu H whilst Yoshi worryingly bled percentage points against Riku. Yoshi, however, held the slight lead overnight, and the day vote comfortably put him out of reach of a late Dante surge. In the divisional final he was granted the blessing of a match with sprite Snake, and although it wasn’t close he didn’t look too shabby at all, and he ended up an impressive 9th in the (borked) 2006 X-stats. Which obviously didn’t hurt Dante much either. Overrated? Obviously. But to suggest Yoshi is anything other than a high midcarder, or even near-elite would very silly indeed.

Knuckles was almost certainly the most apparent and downright despicable absentee last year, thanks to the infamous female half of the bracket. He falls into the category of characters who are unquestionably strong in the Character Battle, but nevertheless struggle to receive enough nominations to achieve a fair seed, or in this case, entry. So we delve back to 2005 for Knuckle’s last appearance, and it wasn’t half unforgettable, was it? :P Being on the right side of possibly the biggest Board upset ever does that to you. Perhaps appropriately, his victim of that day, Magus, was also snubbed last year. Another one who’s absence was impossible to avoid. As for Knuckles, like I’ve already said, his reward for that monumental upset was a one way ticket to Snubville. Such is the fate of one of the unluckier characters in contest history. However this year, things may be looking up! Knuckles will be moving into the 2nd round this year as ever, and said round has not a Snake or a Squall anywhere to be seen!

Rikku’s debut in 2005 was greeted with much trepidation for a multitude of reasons. Firstly she was a 7th seed facing Ryu in the 1st round, a match she would surely lose, and secondly, well, it was Rikku. A character whose appeal is described as mixed at the best of times, distinctly questionable at the worst. We’d already seen Tidus, Yuna and Auron is these settings, making Rikku the 4th FFX character, and seemingly obviously, the weakest. Not many were expecting anything less than an easy doubling from Ryu, a contest mainstay, en-route to a tasty 2nd round meeting with Bowser. And sure enough, ultimately, Ryu beat Rikku, but not without taking a certain portion of his dignity with him. Rikku did a lot better than expected, a whole 6% better than 2003 Yuna was projected to get, and a sure-fire sign that FFX-2 was helping some. 2006 rolled around and Rikku once again proved she was no scrub, a very good midcarder in fact, by beating on Lenneth Valkyrie in a tripling, getting 58% on Kairi, and getting a very respectable 31% on Samus, who was cruising to the title (perhaps using ‘cruising’ in the loosest possible terms…). So after her 2 appearances, and that of Yuna and Auron, could Tidus really be the weakest FFX character?
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 9:41:13 PM | message detail | #025
And finally, from one modern Final Fantasy lead, to the latest. Two FFXII characters are in the fray this year, perhaps thanks to its doubling in size. One is fan favourite Balthier, one is the traditional effeminate male lead, Vaan. Any parallels at all? Many expect that not to be the only similarity to the world of Spira, with Vaan’s contest strength in comparison to Balthier perhaps being similar to Tidus’ deficit to Auron. Which leaves Vaan where then? Is he comparable in strength to any other FF leads? Tidus may not be the most liked of characters, but he’s a solid midcarder nonetheless, and shares a fair bit in common with Vaan. Zidane on the other hand fared poorly against Crono in his only previous match, and is a lot closer to the fodder line. Vann is also certainly no Squall or Cloud. Most stabs in the dark have him somewhere between Tidus and Zidane, which crucially, should have him some way behind Rikku. Question is, who SFFs who? I highly doubt their fan bases are independent enough to not have a majority favouring one over the other.

Which leaves us with the ultimate prediction. Yoshi and Knuckles should be ahead of Rikku and Vaan, but in what order? I agree with the majority when I say it’ll be Yoshi > Knuckles > Rikku > Vaan. Yoshi and Knuckles each already have their own fan bases propelling them through, and it would take one of the other two’s support to completely desert them in favour of the other to give them a chance of nicking 2nd. If anyone, it would have to be Rikku. Already she’s likely stronger than Vaan, and I’d sooner buy her SFFing Vaan then Vaan rSFFing Rikku. Yoshi seems the safe pick for the top, although Knuckles has a fair shout of that too. He’ll probably be getting his revenge in the 2nd round thanks to “I’m-Nintendo-somehow” Man anyway. As for now I’ve got Nintendo’s guy on top. I can see both Yoshi and Knuckles gaining near enough a third of the vote each, with Rikku and Vaan sharing the remaining spoils. A few percent either way and I end up with this…

Luis’ Final Prediction

Knuckles the Echidna - 31.40%
Rikku - 19.25%
Vaan - 12.61%
Yoshi - 36.74%

Crew Consensus: Knuckles > Yoshi is the unamimous choice! If you don't have it, you should feel bad!
transience | Posted 9/2/2007 9:42:54 PM | message detail | #026
woot, the crew is back!

it didn't really feel like a contest until I read through the analyses. aww yeah bring on the contest
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
DpObliVion | Posted 9/2/2007 9:43:21 PM | message detail | #027
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Here we are, the start of the Character Battle VI! Quite an interesting twist we have this year, four way battles, where you choose the top 2 to advance! Ugh, it's bad enough I'm always way off trying to predict percentages in 1 on 1, this is going to be ridiculous now....anyway, these things are suppose to be quick, so enough with the intro.

I really want to say Knuckles comes out on top, but that's the Sonic fanboy in me most likely. Not that he has no chance, after all, he did beat Magus 2 years ago, which is quite a feat. But he's facing a pretty popular Nintendo/SSBM character in Yoshi, who managed to beat Dante last year (I called that, along with Luigi beating Zero....sorry, had to brag), also quite a feat.

There's also Final Fantasy in this match, too, which is a big draw. However, as far as Final Fantasy characters go, I don't think Rikku is all that strong. At least, I would pick both Yoshi and Knuckles over her 1-on-1. Especially considering she has Vaan in this four-pack to draw Final Fantasy votes away from her, she's going down, TJF or not.

So, it's Knuckles and Yoshi moving on, but in which order? The general consensus is Yoshi, and I agree with it, unfortunately. Go Knuckles, though!

Dp's bracket says: Yoshi > Knuckles

Dp's prediction is: Yoshi > Knuckles

Yoshi - 37%
Knuckles - 34%
Rikku - 18%
Vaan - 11%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/2/2007 9:44:00 PM | message detail | #028
*strolls in fashionably late*

Huh, we must be getting old, because our opening guest just outwrote all our asses. Ah well, it's the predictions that count, right, fellow fogies?
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 9/2/2007 9:44:52 PM | message detail | #029
guests always write a lot! remember EC's mountains of text last time? I took a nap in the middle of one of those.

quick someone hit me with an old joke aw yeah
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Halcyon26 | Posted 9/2/2007 9:45:00 PM | message detail | #030
"You know, if you miss Jack Bauer, he'll come to your house and kill you." Shepard Smith, Fox News. Wii: 0778 4055 2505 7366
shadow8021 | Posted 9/2/2007 9:45:41 PM | message detail | #031
Final Character Battle Score: 180/240
Champions: Samus/Link
GTM | Posted 9/2/2007 9:49:55 PM | message detail | #032
lets close this topic at 499 >.> ~ dj hypnosis
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 9:51:24 PM | message detail | #033
Knuckles > Yoshi is the unamimous choice! If you don't have it, you should feel bad!

augh me

Yoshi > Knuckles I mean!
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/2/2007 10:01:16 PM | message detail | #034
Great opening write-ups, everyone, but one thing is missing.

*starts a chant*

Hit or Miss!
Hit or Miss!
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
DpObliVion | Posted 9/2/2007 10:03:18 PM | message detail | #035
tranny wins for haiku. I hope you're planning on doing that for every match.

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
GTM | Posted 9/2/2007 10:06:54 PM | message detail | #036
The analysi (plural?) are longer this time around...
lets close this topic at 499 >.> ~ dj hypnosis
DpObliVion | Posted 9/2/2007 10:07:54 PM | message detail | #037
I don't think the word is "analysi," but it damn well should be, that sounds awesome.

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
dowolf | Posted 9/2/2007 10:07:59 PM | message detail | #038

... Fear the Talkative Mathematicians and Sexy Chemists! - longhairmathgeek
transience | Posted 9/2/2007 10:11:37 PM | message detail | #039
I've been doing haikus since the series contest - they'll be continuing!
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Master Moltar | Posted 9/2/2007 10:17:18 PM | message detail | #040
The analysi (plural?) are longer this time around...

That's just the "first match, eager to write a wall" syndrome.
Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Yoshi (0/0)
Big Bob | Posted 9/2/2007 10:17:49 PM | message detail | #041
Wow, I feel special for picking Knuckles > Yoshi in the very first match. It will be awesome if I'm right.

Especially since an alt of mine will be at the very top of the leaderboard for a single match. >>
Okay, I promise I won't put any more TOS-bypassing words in my sig.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/2/2007 10:34:33 PM | message detail | #042
Finally a damn bracket!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/2/2007 10:50:42 PM | message detail | #043
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
Big Bob | Posted 9/2/2007 10:54:35 PM | message detail | #044
Oh yeah, and I'm calling it now:


Because bracketmakers are just that stupid.
Okay, I promise I won't put any more TOS-bypassing words in my sig.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/2/2007 10:56:08 PM | message detail | #045
even when he's wrong
tranny's haikus speak the truth
aw yeah augh augh augh
delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/3/2007 1:19:58 AM | message detail | #046
Seems you guys called it, except you had Knuckles too high. I made the same mistake in Oracle.
I have this fear that if I try anal, she'll fart, and my wang will pop out like a
champagne cork, sending me flying around the room.
- Bob the Cow V
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/3/2007 1:20:22 AM | message detail | #047
Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 2:11:13 AM | message detail | #048
Well, I sent em a good three hours before the analyses went up... but apparently that was for naught. Issues or something. ANYWAY.

Lopen's Analysis
I figure you people have heard enough of the special first match intros by now, so I'm just gonna get right down to the match instead of talking about the format in general or any of that fancy crap...

Man, speaking of this match... I remember the good old days when the first match would be something like Cloud vs Klonoa and I could just point and make jokes about the entrants. Oh, how things have changed. This format is to blame, my friends! Okay, this match isn't really that much tougher than Cloud vs Klonoa to call. Green bastard and Knuckles are clearly the favorites, here. And Vaan isn't making things look better for Rikku. Now, don't get me wrong.. the people hate Vaan, but those twelve or fourteen that like him? Boom, greater potential to be Rikku voters, you can be sure of that.

I do give this match some potential for oddity. Mario and Sonic have shown to have some craziness go on in their matches. Shadow/Mario, and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs Super Mario World are all we have, and some weird things went on in both of those. However, given a singles match against Knux and Yoshi, I'd expect no such thing. So, I'll expect no such thing here, either. But if there is... watch out, Rikku might just surprise us!

Lopen's Prediction:
Yoshi – 36.99%
Knuckles – 32.24%
Rikku – 21.34%
Vaan – 9.43% (how did you get in over Ashe? We may never know)
transience | Posted 9/3/2007 9:24:29 AM | message detail | #049
looks like we'll be lucking out here, should these trends continue.
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Jay Lv99 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:29:33 AM | message detail | #050
wait wtc you guys are The Crew


Good news, I don't have to explain who I am in my sig anymore!
I'm still the Cream of The SEP fanboyism!