GameFAQs Contests
Fall 2006 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5 (Battle Royale Edition!)
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 3:08:34 PM | message detail | #001 |
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Another year, another Character Battle. And where there is a battle
featuring video game characters on GameFAQs, the Analysis Crew is there. For those new here, the Analysis Crew (led by that handsome devil, Moltar) discusses and predicts each match in the Contest. From the first match of Round 1 to the Finals, the Analysis Crew will be there to tell you who we think will win the match and why. Some analyses will make you laugh, others will make you cry, and you may even wet your pants a few times. We do this for you. And now, I present to you, this Contest's Analysis Crew! First we have the Crono of the Analysis Crew, Master Moltar! He may not be as popular as the other members, and actually pretty quiet on the board, but man does he look the best. Next is the Link of the Crew, UltimaterializerX! The fans scream "OMG ULTI!" when he enters a topic, and he also is a winner, winner of the Games Contest to be precise. Following up is the Cloud of the Analysis, Heroic Mario. He may change his opinions alot, but he stands firm on his Contest choices and...oh wait, he's in an Nintendo phase right now?...And he wants to be Ganondorf?...But..whatever! Up next is the Sonic of the Crew, Yoblazer! He's just loved by everyone. How can someone not like Yo? It's impossible! A strong, consisent Crew performer, he's looking to take the crown this Contest. Now it's the Mega Man of the Crew, Lopen! Just like Mega Man, Lopen is everywhere these days. He's known for his crazy upset picks and just not being able to stay down when he's out. Finally, it's the Solid Snake of the Crew, Karma Hunter! He's the most badass of all of us, I'll say. Like hiding in a cardboard box to avoid detection, KH thinks smart, and he should be a fun addition to the Crew. And the Guest spot...will not be occupied by anyone during the Battle Royale. Oh darn. So the main bracket is over, and the BR has begun. Here, things will be switched up a bit. We're going to analyze who we think will be eliminated that day and how much of the vote they'll recieve. Now, to the Crew members, you can predict what the others will get for fun, but what is most important is that you predict who you think the loser of the day will be and what percent of the vote they'll get. --- Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160) |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 3:09:33 PM | message detail | #002 |
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Out of curiosity, will the final day of the Royale (Link v. Cloud) be like a normal Crew analysis? --- "My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 3:15:43 PM | message detail | #003 |
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Yeah --- Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/13/2006 3:19:47 PM | message detail | #004 |
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First we have the Crono of the Analysis Crew, Master Moltar! He may
not be as popular as the other members, and actually pretty quiet on
the board, but man does he look the best. Oh yeah, Crono's lookin the best right now! Also, no Guest in the BR? Oh well. I'll just declare myself the unofficial Guest for the BR then. --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 11/13/2006 5:17:46 PM | message detail | #005 |
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Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Crono +7 HM +6 Lo -1 Mo (tie) -1 Yo (tie) -3 Guest -4 KH -5 Ulti Samus Aran vs. Zelda +7 Mo +6 Lo +5 HM +4 Guest -1 Yo -2 Ulti -3 KH Solid Snake vs. Sonic the Hedgehog +7 Lo +6 KH +5 Yo +4 Guest +3 Mo -1 HM -2 Ulti Samus Aran vs. Solid Snake +7 Ulti -1 HM -2 Guest -3 Mo (tie) -3 Yo (tie) -5 Lo -6 KH The Rankings (Through Samus Aran vs. Solid Snake) 1. Master Moltar (261) 2. Heroic Mario (250) 3. Karma Hunter (236) 4. Yoblazer (227) 5. UltimaterializerX (198) 6. Board 8 (194) 7. Lopen (160) Did we get secretly swapped with the Series Contest Crew or something? Man, that was a brutal four match stretch for the crew, but it was just as tough for the rest of the board, so we shouldn't feel too badly. Anyway, these rankings seem to be firmly set, but remember... we still have five matches to go, and at least four of them will be extremely unique, so anything can happen. --- I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now... Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Big Bob | Posted 11/13/2006 5:20:44 PM | message detail | #006 |
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Do the crew members still get points for the BR? If so, that isn't fair to guests. slim chance of getting a point > no chance of getting a point --- Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2006 5:58:50 PM | message detail | #007 |
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My BR: Link > Cloud > Sephy > Mario > Snake > Samus Don't really feel like giving reasons. I think think this is how the SFF will play out. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/13/2006 6:07:31 PM | message detail | #008 |
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| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/13/2006 6:08:09 PM | message detail | #009 |
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From: SilverNightmareX7 | Posted: 11/12/2006 11:11:06 PM | Message Detail | #487 Snake has just been too dominant. Its is destiny. Snake dominated what was considered to be entirely Crono's bracket. Samus on the other hand, has suffered much like Sephiroth did in the villains contest. Mediocre brackets make elite characters less elite. Unfortunately for Samus, she doesnt have 7 months to recover from the suckage of the mediocre bracket like Sephiroth did. lol :D --- CB06 - Score: 122/160 Rank: Tied - 3594th Yesterday's Pick: Crono Today's Pick: Samus Tomorrow's Pick: Samus Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2) |
| shadow8021 | Posted 11/13/2006 7:23:47 PM | message detail | #010 |
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tag --- Character Battle Score: 124/160 Today's Pick: Samus Aran |
| Lugia2 | Posted 11/13/2006 8:31:17 PM | message detail | #011 |
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Well, this will be interesting. My guess? Samus may have to go, but that depends on how the base plays out. Samus sucks against anything Ninty, so she may not get such a vote. Still... My guess: Samus with 10% Next up:Sephy! Or Mario. Snake should stay in for a while, as the Konami character...hmm... --- VIVA LA REVOLU-er, Wii!! Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much. |
| FantasyFreak999 | Posted 11/13/2006 8:48:46 PM | message detail | #012 |
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tag --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 8:55:32 PM | message detail | #013 |
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I wonder if Ulti's going to do write-ups, or is his post it? I have everyone else's...but I'll wait a little bit to see about him. --- Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160) |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 9:32:07 PM | message detail | #014 |
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I don't even want to try to attempt writing anything for the BR, I'm confused as piss. --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 9:32:37 PM | message detail | #015 |
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*takes Ulti's place* --- zizzy |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 9:36:18 PM | message detail | #016 |
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If you're for serious Tran, then you better send your stuff quick! --- Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160) |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 9:36:46 PM | message detail | #017 |
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sure, I'll write something real quick. it'll still triple Ulti's one-liners! --- zizzy |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 9:43:56 PM | message detail | #018 |
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sent! --- zizzy |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 9:46:14 PM | message detail | #019 |
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Battle Royale: Day 1 – Cloud vs. Link vs. Mario vs. Samus vs. Sephiroth vs. Solid Snake Moltar’s Analysis Cloud Summer Contest 2003 Champion Link Summer Contest 2002 Champion Summer Contest 2004 Champion Mario Summer Contest 2005 Champion Samus Summer Contest 2006 Champion Sephiorth Villains Contest Champion Snake Summer Contest 2006 Male Champion Woo, unpredictable Battle Royale time! A lot of things can happen here, as we rarely see characters duke it out in free-for-all polls like these. Crazy SFF, favoritism, and other factors apply here with polls like these. The six characters we have here are the strongest GameFAQs Contest characters currently, so you know they share fanbases. That means it all comes down to the core fanbase. That means…Samus is screwed. Mario SFFed the crap out of her last year, and Link has beaten her with ease as well. She has those two Nintendo characters to compete with here, so she’s losing a chunk of votes (Not mine!) Now throw in Cloud, Seph and Snake, and you filter out some more of her outside fanbase. So yeah, it seems very likely Samus will be the first one gone, but since we’ve never had anything like this before, who knows how it will start? Wouldn’t it be great if Seph was the first one out? I think it would be! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Samus will lose. Moltar’s Prediction is: Link ~30%, Cloud ~24%, ~Seph 16%, Mario ~13%, Snake ~10%, Samus with 7.54% Ulti’s? More like Transience’s Analysis to begin, I want to say that something really messed up is going to happen in this thing and no one knows what it is. I could see anybody but Link going out on day 1 - that's just how unpredictable this thing is. we've never seen anything like this before and multi-option polls have always gone down really weird. (Yoshi > Mario, anyone?) speaking of Mario, I think he's going to disappoint here. Mario has never done well with SFF (Link beats Mario way worse than Cloud beats Sephy) and that Yoshi/Mario poll is a classic example of how to suck it up in a multi-option poll. Mario's lucky he's front and center in that BR picture, because I could seriously see him struggling here. ..that said, Samus is pretty much screwed. Mario/Link are going to suck away most of her SSB votes and Metroid is the weakest series amongst the BR participants by far. you could argue that winning the main bracket means she has some momentum, but so did Mario last year and Sephiroth still treated him like the Midgar Zolom. I love Samus and will vote for her, but I think she'll struggle to get 10%. however, if something Weird happens I won't be all that amazed. prediction: Samus with.. 9.56% HM’s Analysis After a long contest of twists and surprises, we come to what may be the most surprising part of any contest so far – the Battle Royale! Here we have the best of the best, the most popular of the popular battling it out to see who can come out on top as the winner over the rest. It should be really cool to see since we’ve never seen something like this in a contest format before – only in those “unreliable” polls held from time to time! Out of all the six characters here, there is really only one that is absolutely confirmed to move onto the next round – Link. The most dominating contestant in the contest’s history, Link has only lost once to Cloud three years ago. Since then, it’s been all him in a dominating fashion. He is far and away the favorite to win the entire thing and with Twilight Princess right around the corner, this may be his most dominative contest yet! But the massive Link analysis comes later! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 9:46:38 PM | message detail | #020 |
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In the first round, almost anyone could be getting eliminated. The one
that is the most obvious is definitely Samus. She is looking like
she’ll get nailed with a double dose of SFF thanks to Mario and Link. I
think that just about covers why Samus will be going out this round,
though it’s hardly something assured. I can’t any one else losing their support – and given that Tifa nearly beat Samus in that pre-contest poll, it just reinforces my thoughts on Samus’s inability to compete. I could be wrong on this, but I think most of the Crew is going to be eliminating Samus tonight. Snake is the only one who isn’t apart of someone else’s fanbase by large and then Samus is on the receiving end of some brutal SFF. Simple enough. Aitch Emm’s Vote: Link Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Samus – 5.2% Yoblazer’s Analysis So, I'm supposed to write about who I think will be ousted today, am I? That isn't too tough. Drumroll, plz? SAMUS ARAN. Yes, even after making the every male in the bracket kiss her sexy feet, gamedom's premier heroine will bow out early due to large amounts of SFF inflicted by her Nintendo higher-ups. Of the six Battle Royal participants, it is fair to say that Samus is the entrant with the least amount of rabid fans, and the one which most rides the coattails of a particular company. Not only are Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Mario all noticeably stronger, but two of them will actually suck up Nintendo votes like a leech, making Samus look terribly weak. The only entrant who Samus can actually beat is the guy she's beating up on right now, Solid Snake. Unfortunately for Ms. Aran, the amount of Nintendo support she's bound to lose will be far too great, and she'll be left there, lying face down and motionless on the street corner, like some sort of two dollar who... bag of pretzels. Poor girl. Just how bad will she look, however? Well, let's examine this a bit. If this Battle Royal featured six characters of equal strength, each one would end up with 16.66 or 16.67%. Obviously, Samus is much weaker than four of the others, so that knocks her down a hefty amount right there. Also, she's going to be hit with a motherload of SFF. Frankly, if she even approaches 10%, my jaw will hit the floor. I feel kind of bad about giving her no credit while she's beating Snake easily, but I can't envision doing well here at all. Fantastic contest, Samus Aran. See you next year. Link with 27% Cloud with 24% Sephiroth with 18% Mario with 13% Snake with 11% Samus with 7% Lopen’s Analysis Not sure how to go into this. I think these matches could be some of the most interesting in the contest, just because we've never seen anything like em before. (No, "Favorite Mario Character?" doesn't count!) I'm just gonna throw out some fun things I think could happen. S'alright? S'alright! Sephiroth > Cloud… even Link! Well, in this match, at least. Hero/Villain SFF? You never know, I'd call it possible. Mario > Link. Really an offshot, but people might not vote Link as quickly thinking he's the "obvious favorite", and give their votes to Samus or Mario. Everybody does really well because many people adjust their votes based on who's losing, and the Battle Royale becomes a roller coaster. Now that would be fun! I'm hoping for this one. Okay, how about predicting who actually loses, then, instead of just doing silly (but good!) "it could happen" scenarios? Fine, I will. I, like most others, think this is down to Samus vs. Snake. Some would say that Samus is going to collapse under massive Nintendo SFF here, but I'm not sure how bad she'll do. She did do alright against Link a few years ago, after all. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 9:47:17 PM | message detail | #021 |
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How about Snake, then? I'm thinking Snake will have the support
advantage in the crew over Samus, but I'm thinking that's not right.
First of all, obviously, Samus beat him straight up in a match. In a
multi-competitor match, this isn't gonna matter as much, but it's
something. More importantly, though, we've all seen what Final Fantasy
7 does to Metal Gear Solid stuff. It's like… "get off my Playstation,
fool!". Oh, and now you're thinking his NEWCOMER status could give him
some fanbase depth? Psh. He's got three OLDCOMERs to fight off, and they're like… "get off my Wii, fool!". So poor Snake, he's rejected, called a fool twice by five people, and crumbles under the pressure. He hides in his box out of shame. People forget to vote for him… he's hiding so well! Poor Snake. Lopen's Prediction: Solid Snake eliminated with 9.13% KH’s Analysis *sigh* Snake's not coming back, is he? Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: SAMUS ARAN LOSES WITH 8% I LIKE HOW THIS IS A VALID PREDICTION P.S. DIE SAMUS DIE Crew Consensus: The majority has Samus being the first to fall in the BR. She also gets crushed in the process. |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/13/2006 9:47:40 PM | message detail | #022 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Guest Analysis: And so the bracket is over. I was pretty bummed when it was announced, because of the 32-32 format, but in the end, it turned out to be perhaps the wildest bracket ever. And the fun is certainly not over, as we now have the unprecedented and unpredictable Battle Royale, consisting of previous winners Link, Cloud, Sephiroth*, Mario, and now Samus, along with runner-up Snake, all in one poll together in an elimination tournament. One dies each day....I like that! Unfortunately though, this could be less unpredictable as hoped. Samus was pretty much a lock to be first eliminated when the contest started, but it was also expected that Crono would be in it as well, giving a 3-character SFF split for Square as well. With 3 Nintendo characters, 2 Final Fantasy characters, and Solid Snake on his own, it is pretty obvious that SFF will cause one of the Nintendo characters to go down on Day 1. So, based on performance and expectations, Samus is all but guaranteed to fall out first. After that though, Day 2 could be quite a mystery. Snake would obviously be the weakest of the 5, but he has an advantage because he will be the only one who won't get greatly hurt by SFF. And it may be a toss-up at this point to decide who gets eliminated by SFF between Mario and Sephiroth....or perhaps even some crazy rSFF to eliminate Link or Cloud? And there's still a chance that even without SFF, Snake still wouldn't be able to compete with the 4 powers and be out second. Who knows? Well, after seeing Day 1's results, it will probably become obvious how the rest of the BR will happen. So, on the eve of Day 1, I think it would be better to post my prediction of the whole order, not just who will be eliminated on Day 1. My vote: Mario My bracket: Female Winner (Samus) eliminated My prediction: Female Winner (Samus) eliminated with 6% (Snake 22%, Link 21%, Cloud 19%, Sephiroth 17%, Mario 15%, Samus 6%) Even more unofficial predictions for the rest of the BR: Day 2: Link 24%, Snake 21%, Cloud 20%, Mario 18%, Sephiroth 17%, Day 3: Cloud 31%, Link 28% , Snake 22%, Mario 19% Day 4: Link 38%, Cloud 35%, Snake 27% Day 5: Link 54%, Cloud 46% --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 11/13/2006 9:48:24 PM | message detail | #023 |
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From Master Moltar The six characters we have here are the strongest GameFAQs Contest characters currently. Tifa would like to have a word with you. ~~~ The one. The only. Lady Ashe. |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/13/2006 9:49:36 PM | message detail | #024 |
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I say Samus with 8.32% --- CB06 - Score: 122/160 Rank: Tied - 3594th Yesterday's Pick: Crono Today's Pick: Samus Aran Tomorrow's Pick: Samus Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2) |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 9:50:40 PM | message detail | #025 |
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do you want me to write an analysis for every day Moltar, or just today? I can do more if you want, it's up to you. --- zizzy |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/13/2006 9:52:51 PM | message detail | #026 |
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Moltar’s Prediction is: Link ~30%, Cloud ~24%, ~Seph 16%, Mario ~13%, Snake ~10%, Samus with 7.54% - Lopen's Prediction: Solid Snake eliminated with 9.13% With no huge SFF against him, there's no way Snake gets equal or less than 1 out of every 10 votes out of 3 main fanbases. I'd say Snake gets 2-3 per 10, Nintendo 5-6, and Final Fantasy 4-5. --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 9:53:46 PM | message detail | #027 |
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Solid Snake..................54.99% 75864 Sonic the Hedgehog.......45.01% 62097 TOTAL VOTES........................137961 27.07% of the brackets predicted this match correctly. Wait...so Mega Man didn't massive drop? I mean, Sonic barely did better on Snake than MM did? Woah, that is some seriously scary strength. Today, Samus is easily beating that monster Snake. Woo Samus was underrated! KH - 13 Moltar - 12 HM - 11 Lopen - 10 Ulti - 8 Guest (Wigs, SilverNightmareX7, EC (2), TheRye, transience, Lady Ashe, Kleenex) - 8 Yoblazer - 5 With KH taking the point for Snake/Sonic, and Ulti getting today's, it looks like KH has the lead going into the BR. --- Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/13/2006 9:54:21 PM | message detail | #028 |
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Oh, and I want to see what HM thinks the percentages will look like.
5.2% for Samus is pretty damn low, but then factor in that I'm pretty
sure he'd have Link at at least 36%. --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 9:55:03 PM | message detail | #029 |
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do you want me to write an analysis for every day Moltar, or just today? I can do more if you want, it's up to you. Every day please! --- Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160) |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 11/13/2006 9:56:07 PM | message detail | #030 |
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Ulti should become the new guest spot. >_> ~~~ The one. The only. Lady Ashe. |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/13/2006 9:59:12 PM | message detail | #031 |
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Arg, that should totally be me taking over the official spot, tranny!
Oh well, you claimed the first one, I'll let it stay consistent. I'm
satisfied being the Unofficial Guest. Oh yeah, like Big Bob said, it's
unfair to the Guest in the points system, so I think you should count
me for the guest, at least for the points systems, just to give them a
fair shot at scoring. <_< --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 10:01:19 PM | message detail | #032 |
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sure thing. *dons Ulti's shirt* --- zizzy |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 10:04:10 PM | message detail | #033 |
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Hm. My percentages would go something like this! Link -- 36% Cloud -- 22% Sephiroth -- 17% Soild Snake -- 11% Mario -- 9% Samus -- 5% AW YEAH --- "My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 10:05:37 PM | message detail | #034 |
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oh, and sorry Dp! nothing personal! mine are something like this: Link - 25 Cloud - 20 Sephiroth - 16 Snake - 15 Mario - 13 Samus - 9 I'm sure that doesn't add up, but it's in the vicinity! --- zizzy |
| Big Bob | Posted 11/13/2006 10:14:25 PM | message detail | #035 |
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Big Bob's completely biased and nonsensical analysis Snake's got his own fanbase in this poll, so he should be fine. Link will be fine, Mario will outlast Samus, Cloud will be fine...Sephiroth is strong... But I think that the second Super Smash Bros. Brawl trailer has had a HUGE effect on this tournament. And who are the only two characters in this poll who weren't in it? Cloud and Sephy. And Cloud's definitely stronger... Bob's Prediction: Sephiroth dies with 4% --- Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128. |
| Lopen | Posted 11/13/2006 10:32:49 PM | message detail | #036 |
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With no huge SFF against him Did you read my analysis? Snake's getting SFFed by Final Fantasy 7, baby! --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/13/2006 10:46:27 PM | message detail | #037 |
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I think Snake is too well liked by those who've played the MGS games for him to get rejected like that. --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 10:50:04 PM | message detail | #038 |
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Link- 21% Cloud- 25% Sephiroth 24% Mario- 10% Snake- 10% Samus- 5% TuRtLe ~~~ Pretty much out of the contest lol x-stats |
| Lopen | Posted 11/13/2006 10:50:40 PM | message detail | #039 |
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Just like Magus! --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/13/2006 11:24:59 PM | message detail | #040 |
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Yeah, so I really overestimated Snake. Link is absolutely dominating
though, the 3 Nintendo characters are taking about 52% right now. Link
win confirmed. --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2006 11:31:03 PM | message detail | #041 |
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I didn't exactly know what Moltar wanted, so I just posted my inequality and left. I honest to god would have picked Samus to lose today with 8% of the vote, if it matters. Dunno if it's too late or not. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/14/2006 8:05:34 PM | message detail | #042 |
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*waits for picture* --- zizzy |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2006 8:43:04 PM | message detail | #043 |
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Busy writing a term paper, so nothing in-depth today. Anyway, I think Mario goes down next and will score 12.5% tomorrow. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/14/2006 8:49:04 PM | message detail | #044 |
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Snake with 14.5% is next! Mario will have around 15% for a photo finish. --- CB06 - Score: 154/192 Rank: Tied - 1115th Yesterday's Pick: Samus Aran Today's Pick: Samus Aran Elim Tomorrow's Pick: Snake Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 9:53:06 PM | message detail | #045 |
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Battle Royale: Day 2 – Cloud vs. Link vs. Mario vs. Sephiroth vs. Solid Snake Moltar’s Analysis Cloud Day 1 – 23.50% Link Day 1 – 27.60% Mario Day 1 – 11.60% Sephiorth Day 1 – 16.40% Snake Day 1 – 13.10% Well…Day 1 doesn’t turn out too crazy after all. Link wins, Cloud gets second, and Samus is eliminated. Oh well, time for Day 2. Who will survive?! Well, we saw Snake beat Mario today, but the million-dollar question is if he can pull in a decent portion of Samus’s votes. I mean, he’s only about 2000 votes behind Snake, and there’s 10,000+ Samus voters wondering who to vote tomorrow. Logic says they’ll go to Link and Mario. Now, calculating how much will go to Link…how much will go to Mario…how much will go to the others…random dropoff with the votes…carry the 5…squared…ahh yes, it seems that Mario will just barely get enough votes to stay alive over Snake! (Warning: This is subject to be totally wrong) Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake will lose. Moltar’s Prediction is: Link ~30%, Cloud ~25%, Seph ~17%, Mario ~14%, Snake with 13.98% Ulti’s? More like Transience’s Analysis I'm pretty disappointed in day 1. it actually went as expected - Link domination, Cloud on a tier by himself, Samus getting the holy hell SFFed out of her and the others somewhere in the middle. I was hoping for something wild to happen but the characters more or less performed to their strengths in a regular character battle. so what happens tonight? well, what I want to know is how static the voters are going to be. are they going to vote for the same character every time? are they going to adjust their votes based on previous results? for example, will Link supporters throw their support to Mario? will Cloud fans support Snake? or will Link fans just vote Link six days in a row? it's an interesting, unsolvable question. there's also the question of where Samus's votes go - you'd think they'd go to Link and Mario, but I'm not so sure about that. Link and Mario already SFFed Samus, so I don't know how much more they can take from her core fans. personally, my Samus vote will be shifting to Cloud and I could see that 8% being mostly evenly distributed. Mario pretty much sucked it up today. (as predicted by yours truly!) finishing below a character he beat pretty good a year ago is about as close to an x-stat upset as we have here. if you believe in pictures making a difference, he might actually have overperformed with how prominent he was in that thing. it seems like Mario is suffering from Link's dominance, something that isn't likely to go away any time soon. is the reduced numbers of Nintendo characters going to help him? a little bit, enough to make this a tight race for second last. I think Snake is slightly more likely to go out, but I'll go with the upset here. (though I may not be in the minority!) prediction: Link - 31%; Cloud - 26%; Sephiroth - 17%; Solid Snake - 13.5%; Mario - 12.5% prediction: Samus with.. 9.56% HM’s Analysis As expected, Samus is eliminated after the first day. She didn’t get quite as low as I had projected, but she still wasn’t even in contention for any position except for last. With that easy choice out of the way, things are getting a little harder with the two next candidates ready to go – Mario and Solid Snake. When you look at the poll results yesterday, Snake finished in a nice 4th place and Mario trailed at 5th. But you have to imagine that Samus’s votes will definitely help out Mario and Link before they will Snake. Even in a loss, she got a nice 11,000 votes, the majority going to Link I would presume, and those can be divided up and split to the Nintendo dudes first and then everyone else later. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 9:54:16 PM | message detail | #046 |
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I think with Samus out of the voting options, Mario’s going to get a nice little boost to slightly
out last Snake in what should be a tight match throughout. This one is
really hard, but I think the plumber heads into the Final Four to
compete with the big guys. Aitch Emm’s vote: Link Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Solid Snake – 13% Yoblazer’s Analysis With 2.5 hours left to go in the Battle Royal's first day, things are actually looking good for Snake to outlast Mario. He leads the gaming icon by a little over 1.5%, and Samus will have less than 7.8% to disperse to the other entrants. With a good chunk of that going to Link and the rest being split amongst the others, I doubt Mario will make up the 2% or so necessary for him to make it through another day. ...Of course, this is Mario, GameFAQs' version of the ****ing Hamburglar. Mario steals more contest victories than Cloud steals fangirls' panties from Link's hotel room. He's a perfect 3-0 in nail biters, and if he's neck and neck with Snake during the last few hours, he will have the edge. It's been three long years since we've seen some bonafide Mario magic, and I think it's about time we got ourselves ready for a show. Link with 30% Cloud with 24.5% Sephiroth with 17.5% Mario with 14.01% Snake with 13.99% Lopen’s Analysis I think today will prove something interesting: a close match can change based on just random variation from day to day. I don't expect the results to be almost exactly the same just with Samus's votes spread throughout the competition, nope. It's all about who shows up, and different people are showing up. It's also possible that some of the Link fans might spread out their votes, because they saw just how dominant he was yesterday. Who's more likely to get them out of the lot? Mario, of course! Of course the same could be said of Cloud, to a lesser extent. One thing's for sure though, barring some huge variation, this match is between Mario and Snake. I give Sephiroth an off shot of being eliminated too. My gut says go with Mario, despite Snake doing better today. Samus's votes will probably go in a bit higher proportion to Mario than to Snake. Will it be enough on its own? Well, probably not. But it will close the gap to random chance. However, I have a feeling the poll's gonna go wicked different today! And Mario will show his plumber durability at its finest. Some analysis, huh? The poll will randomly change! Stunning idea, Lopen! … shut up! Lopen's Prediction: Solid Snake eliminated with 14.13% (Snake has to get less votes proportionally than yesterday... yes it's a change!) KH’s Analysis I've got a feeling Mario edges out Snake here, but my bias isn't going to let me admit that by a longshot. Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Mario loses with 13.5% Crew Consensus: Oooh, looks like there's some debate whether Snake or Mario goes out in Day 2, but in a slight majority, it's Snake. |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/14/2006 9:54:55 PM | message detail | #047 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Guest Analysis: As expected, Samus is getting the boot here this round. It looks like I greatly overestimated Solid Snake here against such tough opponents, the Nintendo and Square fanbases were just too much against his relatively limited fanbase. Also as expected, it became pretty obvious that Link is set to win this thing. Link is beating everybody in today's poll, with Cloud being the only one even close to him. And Cloud only as Sephiroth to SFF him, while Link has Mario and Samus. Not only is Link outdoing Cloud, but the three Nintendo characters are combining for about 7% more than the two Square characters are combining for. The majority of Snake's votes could go to Square for being on the same system, but nothing too significant. And Link doesn't have to worry about some freakish rSFF causing Mario to outlast him; Link is blowing Mario completely out of the water here. So, while the end results are pretty much guaranteed, we still have right now to be excited about. Day 2 of the Battle Royale is being anticipated as the most interesting day of the BR, because we could see Snake, Mario, or Sephiroth eliminated. At first glance, things do not look good for Mario, who is in 5th place in today's match. However, you cannot be quick to say he will be eliminated, since the majority of Samus' lost votes will go to Mario over Sephiroth and Snake. Mario does not need far to go to take out Snake; just about 1.5%. But then again, Samus only has less than 8% to spread around, so will enough get to Mario? At this point, it looks like Sephiroth is performing well enough to be safe for this round, barring some unexpected drop, so it is looking like it will be between Mario and Snake for the elimination. As Samus' percentage continues to drop below 7.8%, I would expect about 4-5% of that to be split among Link and Mario, with Link getting the majority of that. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mario get about a 2% boost and Snake get about a .5% boost, which would put them at right about even. So, it's pretty much looking like a toss-up right now. I think I'll give the nod to Mario to move on though, he can scrounge up some extra votes to help him advance past Snake. My vote: Mario My bracket: Sephiroth (with Crono expected in the poll, in my defense) eliminated My prediction: Snake eliminated with 13.5% (Link 31%, Cloud 24.5%, Sephiroth 17%, Mario 14%, Snake 13.5%) Even more unofficial adjusted predictions for the rest of the BR: Day 3: Link 35%, Cloud 29%, Sephiroth 20%, Mario 16% Day 4: Link 50%, Cloud 30%, Sephiroth 20% Day 5: Link 53%, Cloud 47% --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:55:30 PM | message detail | #048 |
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prediction: Samus with.. 9.56% where did this come from --- zizzy |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 9:57:55 PM | message detail | #049 |
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Oops, forgot to delete that. --- Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Battle Royale Day 1 - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (152/192) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 11/14/2006 10:00:18 PM | message detail | #050 |
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(Warning: This is subject to be totally wrong) Haha, I should put that as a disclaimer in all my write-ups. --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
