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Fall 2006 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 9:28:42 PM | message detail | #301
Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Zelda: N/A
Yuna: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2)

Upcoming Releases

Zelda: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (WII)
Yuna: N/A

Zelda should have this a lot...but seriously, WTF Samus.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Yuna.

Prediction: Zelda with 61.47%

This feels like it should be a more impressive Yuna, so I'm going low here. Well, for me anyway.

Upset Potential: 30%


...yeah, I don't really have a reason for this, especially a potential this high. But I didn't have one for Tifa doing what she's doing to Samus today. Um...if Yuna wins, I called it? <_<

Upset Prediction: Yuna with 53.54%

Guest’s Analysis - chocoboslayer

If I gave a damn about lol x-stats and contest history and all that stuff, I would write it in here. Guess what....I don't. So, let's move on.

Both of these two beat the holy hell out of their first two opponents, showed dominance against a more difficult third round opponent, and now they get to fight....TO THE DEATH!!
(Ok...maybe not to the death....but you get the point.)

This match is simple. While I may have guessed wrong about the winner of this match, the loser has been obvious from the moment the bracket was released. All good things must come to an end, and Yuna's run in this contest is no exception. It's my personal belief (or fanboy desire, your pick) that Yuna will do better here than Aeris did last round.


Choco's Bracket: Aeris (lol)
Choco's Vote: Yuna
Choco's Prediction: Zelda def. Yuna, 53%-47%

Crew Consensus: Wow, predictions all over the place for Zelda. Yeah she wins, but from anywhere in the low 50's to mid 60's.
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 9:28:59 PM | message detail | #302
HM isn't the high man? That's just stupid crazy.

Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 9:29:39 PM | message detail | #303
Oh, and hit or miss Lopen is totally taking the point on this one. And he's not even one of the extremes!

Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
DpObliVion | Posted 11/7/2006 9:30:49 PM | message detail | #304
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
DpObliVion | Posted 11/7/2006 9:31:33 PM | message detail | #305
DpOblivion's Quick Analysis:

What an odd result today. Thankfully, Zelda's opponent is from FFX; Yuna won't be too impressive like Tifa is today. How well will she do though? Could we see some serious Zelda > Samus discussions coming?

My vote: Zelda
My bracket: Let's not talk about this....
My prediction: Zelda with 54.76%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
Big Bob | Posted 11/7/2006 10:03:41 PM | message detail | #306
Big Bob's completely biased and nonsensical analysis

Congrats, a character I hate made it to round four simply because her division was weak as hell. Knock 'er dead, Zelda.

Bob's Prediction: Zelda with 100%
Hey, I'M not voting for Yuna.
Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/7/2006 10:57:16 PM | message detail | #307
Holy ****crap! Tifa is making Samus look like fodder out there! As long as Zelda doesn’t completely bomb against Lady Yuna, Zelda > Samus is all but a lock! But she isn’t quite there yet. Will Zelda disappoint against Yuna? I suggest you read on and find out! Both of these lovely ladies have been tearing their part of the bracket to shreds so I highly doubt they need any introduction at this point, but I’ll give them one anyways because I’m good like that. Here we have everybody’s second favourite princess (Ashe is still first !!) up against the lovable summoner, Yuna! Both have been bafflingly brilliant up to this point, but Zelda seems to be a strong favourite heading in. Let’s take a look at what each of the pair have going for them, shall we?

Zelda, Zelda, Zelda... What will we do with you? You have been an absolute beast up to this point, and it doesn’t look like you’ll be slowing down any time soon. In the first two rounds you blew out fodder, but that doesn’t mean very much now that we have hit the elite eight. However, in the third round you surpassed expectations a third time by getting an absolutely amazing 56.87% on Aerith, one of the top female video game characters of all time. Aerith and Yuna come from the same series, and can you really see Yuna beating Aerith? I know that I certainly can’t. Twilight Princess is coming ever closer and we have seen Zelda in a trailer casting one badass spell, so if anybody had any doubt in their mind about which character they were going to vote for, it has been completely expelled.

On the other hand, Yuna has been looking pretty powerful herself. She blew away fodder almost as well as Zelda did in the first two rounds, and put up some pretty strong numbers against Chun-Li. Final Fantasy XII has come out and enough people have played it by this point that it could potentially give her a fair boost. In addition to this, Yuna made an appearance in Kingdom Hearts II, and everybody knows just how much that helped Auron. Put those two factors together and we have a potentially close match, right?

Wrong. The Final Fantasy XII factor is a pile of garbage made up by Samus fanboys in an attempt to justify her abysmal performance today. Even if we assume that the FFXII factor does exist, Zelda has already proved herself to be immune to it from her match against Aerith, while Yuna failed to take advantage of it against Chun-Li. As much as I love Yuna, she doesn’t have a ghost of a chance. I might even go so far as to say that the voters are going to “Stay away from the summoner”!

My prediction? Zelda with 99.99%. Everyone left in the contest is so screwed !!

Not so fast, Zelda! You’ve activated Yuna’s trap card, a costly mistake !!

While most signs indicate to Zelda making Yuna look worse than Carmen Sandiego, there is one very important factor that I haven’t yet mentioned, and it is the picture factor. If people can make up garbage about Samus underperforming due to her picture, I can do the same thing when it comes to Zelda and this garbage:

Zelda will still win, but Yuna will manage to impress due to that absolutely pathetic picture that Ceej gave the princess.

My revised prediction? Zelda with 62.34%.
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 4:36:14 PM | message detail | #308
Samus Aran..........50.49% 72773
Tifa Lockhart.........49.51% 71355
TOTAL VOTES................144128

46.04% of the brackets predicted this match correctly.

Oh man, closest match between a non-Noble Niner and a Noble Niner ever. Good thing we can just blame Samus's horrible performance on her unrecognizable (to the casuals) Zero Suit Pic! I mean, Samus isn't weak...or in trouble next round...right? Crazy high vote totals too.

Today, Yuna is doing pretty well against Zelda.

KH - 11
Moltar - 11
HM - 10
Lopen - 9
Guest (Wigs, SilverNightmareX7, EC (2), TheRye, transience, Lady Ashe, Kleenex) - 8
Ulti - 7
Yoblazer - 5

KH with the lowest Samus pick.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/8/2006 7:31:02 PM | message detail | #309
Wait, am I doing the Snake/MM writeup? I forget.

Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 7:33:48 PM | message detail | #310
No, HaRR already did it.

I wonder who the favorite will be for the match...
Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Zelda vs. Yuna - Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda (96/104)
cdw01 | Posted 11/8/2006 7:41:02 PM | message detail | #311
"46.04% of the brackets predicted this match correctly."

That was the prediction percentage from the Crono match.
63.86% of the brackets predicted Samus to win the match.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 11/8/2006 8:52:38 PM | message detail | #312
Snake will be the favorite I think among the analysis crew... but that won't stop them from being wrong!

mmm feel the vibration baby
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/8/2006 8:53:41 PM | message detail | #313
I say 5-2 pick Mega Man!
CB06 - Score: 98/104 Rank: Tied - 213th Yesterday's Pick: Samus
Today's Pick: Zelda Tomorrow's Pick: Mega Man Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero, MC, Kirby
GyratingGrandma | Posted 11/8/2006 8:54:32 PM | message detail | #314
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 8:56:29 PM | message detail | #315
"46.04% of the brackets predicted this match correctly."

Yeah yeah, that'd be pretty sad. 63.86% for Zero Suit!
Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Zelda vs. Yuna - Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda (96/104)
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 9:11:03 PM | message detail | #316
Destiny of the Patriot Division: Round 4 - Match 59 – (1)Solid Snake vs. (2)Mega Man

Moltar’s Analysis

Snake - Even as an old man, he can still kick your ass.
Round 1 – 82.15% vs. Soma (17.85%)
Round 2 – 57.59% vs. Squall (42.51%)
Round 3 – 57.16% vs. Yoshi (42.84%)

Sprite Snake does not falter against Yoshi.

Mega Man - Even Mega Man: Cheap Capcom Cash-In Adventure 54 can’t save him now!
Round 1 – 69.87% vs. Axel (30.13%)
Round 2 – 58.04% vs. Ryu (41.96%)
Round 3 – 54.28% vs. Sora (45.72%)

And MM disappoints yet again!

It’s time for Part 1 of ROUND 4, MALE HALF ELITE EIGHT, EXTRAVAGANZA EVENT SPECIAL 2006 LIVE!! sponsored by the Devil May Cry, filling dark souls with liiiiiight since 1968.

Now, back in 2003 and 2004, Mega Man and Snake faced each other. Both times, Mega Man laughed in the face of Snake and won with ease both times. That’s a great reason for Mega Man to win again. Results never change, and the voters are robots, the x-stats prove this!

Oh wait…Mario/Crono kinda disproves that…fine, I’ll actually go on. Ok, so there was this little poll before the Contest, and Snake was the favorite to win the Contest, but those mean nothing. I mean, Mega Man wasn’t even listed!

So anyway, we get to Round 1, and Snake makes Soma look like 100% Grade A fodder of the worst kind. It’s a good start, I’ll admit. But how about Mega Man. I mean, did you see what he did against Axel?! He underpeformed like no other could! Well, we don’t know how strong Axel was, and both Riku and Kairi ended up pretty high, so it isn’t too crazy to see Axel up there as well. Still, MM not breaking 70% did seem really funky. Surely he’d turn it around in Round 2!

Well, before that, let’s throw in that Snake got 57.5% against Squall. Yeah, there might have been some of that funky FF/MGS stuff, but that’s still pretty good. But Mega Man, he’s always been stronger, so of course he’ll look great in Round 2 against Ryu? Right?! Wrong! He performs worse against Ryu than Bowser did, and Bowser looked bad this Contest. Still, it’s not all that bad. I mean, before Bowser, both Snake and Sonic only got 57% on Ryu, and Mega Man had his almighty 58%! Surely, he’s looking fine for Snake still!

Round 3 comes along, and Snake continues to impress with his horrible sprite and gets 57% on Yoshi. Oh, but Mega Man won’t let his troopers down, because surely he’ll obliterate Sora. Well, he didn’t obliterate him, but he did do something. Bomb? Surely! He only pulled 54% against Sora. But Sora had KH2, and you can’t trust Tingle and Gordon Freeman! Mega Man is still in this!

Ok, all joking aside, Snake has looked great going into this match, while Mega Man has looked like crap. Snake is looking stronger than he was in 2005, and Mega Man looks weaker. Mega Man 2005 would get 52% on 2005 Snake, so there isn’t much room for MM to fall and Snake to rise before the results are changed.

MM still has a chance though. If Axel really is that strong (23% on BL), Ryu returned to his normal self, and Sora did boost that much from KH2, then MM still has a chance. Really, there’s a decent chance of all that coming together. However, there’s a better chance that Mega Man has fallen. It helps things come together a lot easier. Besides, what good releases has MM had lately? Yeah, it’s kind of weird to see him fall off the map after so long, but it’s not like he’ll be losing to Vincent and Ganondorf and Zelda now. However, he may very well be at the bottom of the Noble Nine now.

Snake, on the other hand, has a very bright future. With the highly anticipated MGS4 and SSBB on the way, Snake seems to only be going up. Snake also has the brackets, and even though that didn’t help him in the previous two matches because the gap was so large to overcome, it’s likely to help him a lot more here.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 9:11:52 PM | message detail | #317
This match is by no means a lock for either character. In fact, I’d call it a toss-up at this point. MM could be considered the slight favorite because of his previous two wins over Snake, and Snake could be called the favorite because he has flat out looked better so far. I’m going with Solid here for the win, even though I have Mega in my bracket. Hey, I went with Luigi when he looked better, and right now, I’m feeling Snake will come through.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 51% - Mega Man: 49%

Ulti’s Analysis

And here it is. This match right here may very well be the first real shakeup in the Noble Nine since Link/Cloud 2003. The difference this time around is that the writing is clearly on the wall, whereas Cloud hit everyone out of nowhere. Snake has performed out of his mind all contest, while Mega Man has disappointed in seemingly every match. This paired with Mega Man's ass prediction percentages makes me believe that the full backing of the casual vote is behind Snake in this match. Yes Snake has been on the ass end of two beatings at the hands of Mega, but something about Snake is different this year.

Personally, I think it was SSBB's first trailer. Check any Nintendo poll since and view the dominance. If Snake is truly drawing from the Nintendo fanbase this contest (which is seriously the one company in which hype translates into contest strength), then he may be able to win this match VERY easily. Mega has an uphill climb here. He can win, but he'll need to perform a hell of a lot better than he's been doing this contest in order to actually pull it off.

Think of it in a stats way if you must. 2005 Mega Man scores 45.79% on 2004 Samus. In that same 2004 contest, Sora scored 34.15% on Samus. If you slap a 50.00 value on 2004 Samus and extrapolate, 2005 Mega Man would allegedly score 62.71% on 2004 Sora.

Mega Man just scored a measly 54.28% on Sora. Can Kingdom Hearts 2 and a 1 seed really be the only reasons we attribute to Sora doing 8.5% better than what he was supposed to get two years ago? Something is off with Mega Man this year, and it's about to get exposed unless Mega magically pulls his head out of his ass and wins this. And before anyone forgets, Snake beat the living piss out of Sora last year to the tune of a 65-35 pasting that would have been worse without a minor KH day vote boost to help Sora save some face. Metal Gear Solid just scored 58% on Kingdom Hearts in the series contest, which happened AFTER Kingdom Hearts 2.

Snake is on track to win this, and at this point it'll be an upset in my mind if Mega Man wins. I don't usually go against my bracket in the Crew writeups (especially not when I'm still way up in the scores), but I see no advantage for Mega Man here.

Prediction: Snake with 51.83%

HM’s Analysis

Solid Snake

Previous Matches:

Solid Snake – 82.15% -- 86,697

Soma Cruz – 17.85% -- 19,487

Solid Snake – 57.59% -- 78,314

Squall Leonhart – 42.41% -- 57,666

Solid Snake – 57.16% -- 69,085

Yoshi – 42.84% -- 51,781

Mega Man

Previous Matches:

Mega Man – 69.87% -- 81,959

Axel – 30.13% -- 35,340

Mega Man – 58.04% -- 69,626

Ryu – 41.96% -- 50,342

Mega Man – 54.28% -- 72,630

Sora – 45.72% -- 61,167

Solid Snake and Mega Man face off yet again – it’s almost like Mario/Crono III where the one who lost twice finally gets over the hump (wink, wink!) – and this is looking like the most balanced encounter the two have had. These two have been at the exact opposite ends of the strength spectrum this contest; Mega Man has disappointed time and time again by undershooting both statistical projections and overall expectations. He couldn’t even manage 55% against Sora for crying out loud!
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 9:12:28 PM | message detail | #318
Snake, on the other hand, has pretty much dominated this year. He came out looking beastly against Soma, who is untested to be fair, and then makes Squall look like nothing and even puts up fantastic numbers against a Yoshi that came off of beating Dante – and he did with his sprite picture! Needless to say, Snake comes into this match looking to take it with absolute ease…but it almost feels wrong to give it to him after the last two encounters.

For whatever reason, Snake looks a lot stronger this year. That may be because of his opponents not being as strong as originally thought (Devil Division overrated!!) or he just boosted like crazy this year. In either case, he looks good against a Mega Man who is looking to be the weakest he’s ever been.

In many ways, this reminds me of Mario/Crono III. Mario (Mega Man) beat Crono (Solid Snake) in the previous two encounters, but once that third time rolled around Crono was able to get over the hump. I’m thinking we’re going to be seeing something similar to that here. It would be amazing if Snake beat down Mega Man on par with how he beat Squall and Yoshi – PLOT TWIST !!

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Mega Man

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Solid Snake – 53% ; Mega Man – 47%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: SOLID SNAKE !

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Frustrated, degraded, down before you're done
Rejection, depression, can't get what you want
You ask me how I make my way
You ask me everywhere and why
You hang on every word I say
But the truth sounds like a lie

Live to win, 'till you die, 'till the light dies in your eyes
Live to win, take it all, just keep fighting till you fall

Obsessive, compulsive, suffocate your mind
Confusion, delusions, kill your dreams in time
You ask me how I took the pain
Crawled up from my lowest low
Step by step and day by day
'Till there's one last breath to go

Live to win, 'till you die, 'till the light dies in your eyes
Live to win, take it all, just keep fighting till you fall

Day by day, kickin' all the way, I'm not cavin' in
Let another round begin, live to win
Yeah, live, yeah, win

Live to win, 'till you die, 'till the light dies in your eyes
Live to win, take it all, just keep fighting 'till you fall

Day by day, kickin' all the way, I'm not cavin' in
Let another round begin, live to win
Live to win
Live to win


My prediction: Solid Snake def. Mega Man (52-48)

Lopen’s Analysis

"He will kindly allow his opponent to leave the field with fewer points, but their dignity intact." - Satai Delenn

That's what Mega Man's all about this year... making his opponents look good! Let's just face facts here, Mega Man's got to be tired of brutally slaughtering Snake. He's done it twice now, and this time he's changing things up. This time… Mega Man's not looking to be… IN… well let's not even say it, it seems to be bad luck. No no... this year... Mega Man is GRACEFUL! He'll exhibit in his win, letting Snake look as good as possible. Now, I know you gots to know… why haven't I abandoned him for Snake like the rest of the crew almost certainly has?

You may think this is a double standard… in the last one I said "Yuna has just looked better than Aeris this year, and we've got to use this year! Screw the past!". Now, by what most people are thinking, Snake has looked better this year. The Mega Man doomsayers are out in full force. But, there's a difference. Whereas Yuna doing so well totally blindsided me, I somewhat expected Mega Man to get what he got in each round.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 9:12:58 PM | message detail | #319
I actually called him only getting 70% on Axel. I would've called (believe it or not!) him only getting ~57% on Ryu had I not expected SFF in the match (Mega Man->Yoshi and Bowser->Ryu relations through Mario... man, it makes sense!). Something strange happened in Ryu/Bowser, there's no doubt in my mind. And I've been calling for Sora to impress on him since the contest began as well! (Check the BOLD PREDICTION topic if you don't believe me!)

Now, admittedly, I didn't expect Sora to bring him down to 54%, but it's not outside of my acceptable range. You think Snake getting more on Yoshi is more impressive… but could Sora beat Yoshi? Seems like he should be able to without sweating too much… after all, Riku got 45% on him.

And… despite me expecting these happenings, I've had Mega Man taking the bracket from day one. Has he lost a step? No, not one step. He's faced one guy who was underrated through Bowser, and two guys on Kingdom Crack. I'd say Mega Man's gonna be in for his toughest Snake fight yet (mostly because of Snake boosting… let me say it again… Mega Man hasn't lost a step!), but I still think he will win this one.

Lopen's prediction: Mega Man with 51.85%

KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history


"I'll die after I kill you."

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 9th Place [35.23%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 8th Place [34.74%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 12th Place [30.82%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 9th Place [33.88%]

Snake outperforms my expectations for the third time by crushing the sprite round. And looking at the rest of the field's latest performances...the main bracket is yours for the taking, Snake. Just step up.


"What power...! I've got to go after him!"

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 3rd Place [42.91%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [38.60%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 6th Place [35.99%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [35.55%]

Mega Man takes his third strike of underperforming against Sora. Underperforming in one round is forgivable, but all three? Mega Man will be doing very, very good to stay constant this year.

Then again, that *is* the Blue Bomber's M.O.

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Solid Snake: Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence (PS2), Super Smash Brothers Brawl Trailer (Internet)
Mega Man: N/A

Upcoming Releases

Solid Snake: Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3), Super Smash Brothers Brawl (WII)
Mega Man: N/A

This is it, baby. The match of the contest -- nay, the match of ALL CONTESTS. The third installation of this so-far one-sided rivalry is here -- Solid Snake versus Mega Man!!!

My boy, the main man, greatest character of all time Solid Snake has been impressing like crazy for three straight matches running up to his fifth straight Elite Eight appearance. He dominated Soma Cruz, making the character who many thought could be above the fodder line -- or even comparable to Alucard -- look weaker than unadjusted Laharl based on a constant Snake. He smashed an extremely impressive looking post-KH2 Squall in a match that many expected Squall to win, and whipped up on Yoshi in the sprite round to cap it all off, showing none of the weakness that Bowser took advantage of in the sprite round last year.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 9:13:34 PM | message detail | #320
Meanwhile, SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT (who would totally beat Samus in a direct match) Mega Man has been less than stellar for three rounds running. He let KH2's Axel break 30% on him. I may be the man's number one fan on the board (Commit it to memory.), but It's ****ing Axel. MM then proceeded to do worse on Ryu than Bowser did last year (the same Bowser that lost to Snake in the sprite round), a Ryu that barely did 2% better against Kratos than Alucard did. And finally, the Blue Bomber capped off his bombing with an extremely disappointing match against a so-far unimpressive Sora, letting the kid do less than a percent worse than Solid Snake did in his best showing against MM.

To put that all in perspective, before this contest Mega Man had never dropped below 60% against a non-Noble Nine opponent other than Zero. Not Zelda, not Tidus, not Leon Kennedy -- no one. This year he has done it twice, has let one of said opponents break 45% on him, and Zero? The guy got whipped by Luigi, a Luigi that Sonic just got done breaking 60% on. This has looked like a very, very bad year for Mega Man and co. so far.

So you may wonder why I, Snake fanboy extraordinaire, still have Mega Man as the favorite in this match. Well, for one, it's not like it's without precedent:

And with the second poll further from the first in every way, Snake has a hell of a climb to make for himself. Now, is this the same Snake or the same Mega Man that we've seen in past years? Hell, no. But even looking at this year, there are very compelling reasons for Mega Man to be favored here.

Try the comparison between Sora and Riku, for instance. Sora 2k4 gets 58.3% on Riku 2k5. If that proportion holds, measuring Snake 2k6 through Riku and Mega Man 2k6 through Sora gives Mega Man a 50.33% victory.

...okay, not the most reassuring of measurements. But let's also take into account that Sora had the biggest role in KH2 by far, while Riku's was absolutely pitiful. Even though Sora is stronger, I'd still expect him to gain more. Let's not forget that the proportion may have been even greater to begin with if Samus is overrated in last year's stats (and the Tifa match certainly isn't reassuring me that she's not). And if FFXII's release helped Sora at all (Auron, Tifa, and Yuna are all meeting or exceeding expectations) that makes Mega Man look even better. It's a slight, but definite advantage to the Blue Bomber there.

Despite his "disappointment" against Ryu, Mega Man still did the second best that anyone has done on him -- Bowser may have outperformed him, but he also outperformed Samus Aran and, yes, Solid Snake. Using the strongest Ryu available Mega Man still underperformed, but it's not by that much (like a lil' over a half percent) and he's still projected to beat Snake comfortably using that.

Yeah, Mega Man is projected to do significantly worse on Gordon Freeman than Snake is on Ryu Hayabusa. But we've all suspected GF of being non-linear ever since he broke 40% on Leon Kennedy (and every other opponent up to Sora) yet struggled with Phoenix Wright.

And speaking of non-linearity (which it seems a lot of characters are getting in on the fun with these days) what's to say MM isn't non-linear? Or hell, most of the Noble Nine? Picture be damned, Snake got 50.5% on Bowser and turned it into 43% on Mario. Mega Man may give up nearly 46% of the vote to Sora, but there's still 4% of voters that don't necessarily have to cave to Snake, even if Snake performs stronger indirectly. It's like mnm says -- it takes a LOT to displace the favorites, and Mega Man is a freaking icon. Snake looks fantastic, I feel great about his chances...but he has yet to prove himself. And that gives MM the favorite nod here.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 9:14:10 PM | message detail | #321
Karma Hunter's Vote: VOTE SNAKE

Favorite Prediction: Mega Man with 52.35%

Upset Potential: 100%


...ew, okay, enough making Mega Man look good. I have not yet BEGUN to analyze!!!

Seriously, now, let's admit it. If Snake had let Soma Cruz break 30% on him, barely beat Squall and let Yoshi get 46-47% on him, there'd be little to no hype for this match. Especially if Mega Man had performed to expectations on his other opponents. We'd be looking to see how well Snake could do, yes -- but not win.

Snake has been more impressive than Mega Man this year, plain and simple. And there are a LOT of comparisons that favor him.

Squall is a BIG one. Now, of course Snake/Squall was SFF -- Squall's not losing to Yoshi, especially after KH2 -- but it begs the question of how much Squall gets on Snake indirectly. 45%? 46%? 47%? I can assure you of this -- unless Squall is nearly even with Snake indirectly, Snake looks golden going into this, because Mega Man let Sora nearly break 46% on him. Sora is *not* stronger than Squall, directly or indirectly. The worst post-KH Squall gets 54.4% on the best Sora indirectly (which is more than MM got). The best Squall gets 58.86% on the best Sora indirectly, and the worst Sora is just flat-out embarrassing. Would this mean Squall could beat Mega Man? No -- but I'd give him a shot.

FFXII helped Sora, you say? Well, it's nice that Sora and Kratos were in the same fourpack from last year, because that's a little hard to believe when you see that Sora gets almost exactly as much on Kratos in 2k6 as he's projected to in 2k5 (and both were behind Snake/Sora, so that doesn't matter). That doesn't mean anything on its own, but FFXII helping out Sora to any significant extent means that without it, Kratos boosted significantly more than Sora this year. Based on his game continuing to sell well. Sora has had the biggest game on this site up to right now, and he's infinitely cooler and more likable in it. I can't accept that Kratos boosted more than Sora -- let alone THAT much more than Sora.

And let's say FFXII is bringing a big influx to the site right now. Aside from Link being so screwed against Cloud, that could also be a bit of a help for Snake, however small. After all, the man's basically proven himself to have SFF with PS FFs and KH. If FFXII snake-bit Mega Man once, he could very well get Snake-bit again.

(okay, I may be a bit optimistic with that argument but whatever)

Snake impressing against Yoshi came and went with little fanfare, which was surprising considering how well he did, and how he did it with yet ANOTHER stacked sprite picture. While perhaps not as bad as his latest installations, sprite Snake has yielded bad results for Snake more than once, and people definitely expected Yoshi to do well on Snake due to it. He ended up getting clobbered, and extrapolating through Dante 2k5 makes Snake look great (while using Hayabusa 2k5 makes the man look absolutely fantastic). And that's all considering Yoshi could very well have overperformed. With a good picture for Snake tonight (okay, now that is a stretch) he could take this match with absolute ease.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 9:14:46 PM | message detail | #322
"But Kay Aitch! There was a background picture there! Snake had a face picture in the background in 2003 against Ryu and he didn't overperform!" Or so it seems, my imaginary friend. Ryu being overrated all this time is a very real possibility, even if it's only to an extent. Dante certainly didn't look better in 2004 than he did in 2003 -- sure, you can blame it on Viewtiful Dante, but Tails doesn't fill me with any confidence either. And I've all but accepted Ryu being overrated in 2004 by a good amount. Characters just don't normally go from getting 45% on Sonic to 41% on Bowser, and KOS-MOS's dropoff was very notable as well. And KOS certainly doesn't look too much better this year, despite her great picture advantage against Aeris and having XSIII come out recently. Bowser overperforming on Ryu just seems ridiculous, as for every intangible he has Mega Man had more. And he ended up failing miserably.

It's no lock, of course. Snake supporters have had to stress this to insecure (=P) MM supporters for weeks now. I have stressed for a long time that until MGS4 and SSBB, the Noble Nine breaking is far more likely than the 'Elite Eight'. Which, succinctly, is the Noble Nine minus Solid Snake. He's always been the odd man out -- the Playstation Konami character amidst a gaggle of Nintendo elites, Square elites, and gaming icons. He's always been very strong, but never competitive with the upper tiers, and is continually overestimated by the casuals. Who do you think the #1 pick to take the main bracket is, chumps?

But what makes him overestimated in the first place? It doesn't hurt that Snake is the coolest of the cool. It doesn't hurt that he may have THE most rabid fanbase here, bar none. What DOES hurt him is that the MGS series don't have the same universal appeal that the other top tier games have. He has the character, just not the exposure. Oh, and he lacks a sword.

But this is all looking to change with SSBB. Getting the support of a fanbase that can come in fourth in the Series Contest X-Stats against Super Mario Bros. is no ****ing joke. He's already gained some fans simply by being announced for the damn thing. He stole the show at E3 with it and MGS4. The damn new SSBB gameplay video where he ****ing kicks ass probably gained him a few fans.

After SSBB, Snake/Mega Man will be a foregone conclusion for Snake. Even if MM ends up being in the damn thing. But for now, he has to go up on more or less his own power one last time. And really? I think he can do it even if Mega Man hasn't dropped a bit. Rely on your strength, not an opponent's weakness.

And Snake is invincible, ****ers. BOOK IT.

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Solid Snake with 53.64%.

Watch out, main bracket!

Guest’s Analysis - HaRRich

The future VS The past.

Casual bracket-makers VS Contest regulars.

Konami's icon VS Capcom's icon.

Socom VS Blaster.

Bandanna VS Helmet.

Who wins?!

Does hype ever mean anything in the contests?

Do minor releases ever mean anything for icons?

Does the influx of a new system ruin our previous year's stats?

Did the sprite round make Solid Snake look worse than he should have against Yoshi?

Did KH2 make Mega Man look worse than he should have against Sora?

Where are the answers?!

...I got your back on this one guys.

Future, regulars, Capcom's, Socom, Bandanna, from time to time, rarely, more than we realize (and expect next year to be chaos), barely, surely.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/8/2006 9:14:52 PM | message detail | #323
Crew favours Snake?

Mega Man = lock to win

81/88 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2006 9:16:05 PM | message detail | #324
To get more serious with it now, I'll try to keep this fairly simple for the most part...but Solid Snake has been on an absolute rampage thus far this contest while Mega Man's shown weakness at so many different angles. Before the contest even started, it was noted that Solid Snake had a 1-seed while Mega Man had a 2-seed and Zero had a 7-seed, which caught some eyes but generally not many people looked into it any further than just "laff, seeding"...not to mention The Boss got four seeds higher than Roll and did nearly 5% better against Tifa than Roll did against Yuna, but at least that one was expected. Right before the contest started, we saw in a poll that Solid Snake is the most favored character to win the male's side of the, granted, Mega Man's never had much bracket support (especially against Solid) yet has still pulled out big-time wins against him twice before ( 14.53% in 2k3 and 31.34% in 2k4 for Mega Man's bracket support to get to the Final Four, both of which featured Mega/Solid in the Elite Eight), but it can only help Solid Snake.

In the first round, Solid beat Soma Cruz worse than Samus beat Nidoran F while Mega allowed Axel to crack 30%. In the second round, Solid made a post-KH2 Squall look like Luigi (who Squall has 60-40'd before...and Squall just got done making Tidus look nearly as low as Geno, no less) while Mega Man failed to even match Bowser's percentage against Ryu...and Solid > Bowser in the sprite round last year, too (though it should be said that Mega did outdo Solid's performance against Ryu in 2k3). In the third round, they got each other's Sweet Sixteen opponents last year...and both of them dished out Something Fishy to their opponents last year, but I'm more impressed with Solid for this year's Sweet Sixteen because Solid got his worst sprite to date (which is probably negated by his face-shot in the background, but it needed to be said) and still managed to beat Yoshi -- who was hot off of beating Dante when all signs pointed to Dante winning with a bit of room to spare -- nearly 3% worse than Mega beat Sora -- who was hot off of...getting 36% on Gordon Freeman.

The last point I'll bring out is super-stition...yeah, I'm going there. Think back to Mario/Crono -- Mario barely won twice, then Crono redeemed himself by firmly beating his ass in 2k4 in their third match. Solid made Knuckles his whipping boy in the second round for three years straight, but the third match was easliy when Knuckles did his best (and was the only time he broke 40% against him). Mega and Solid have faced off twice before...and all signs are pointing at Solid to make the third one a charm...

...I do want to mention though that this match is a toss-up, and don't let anybody tell you differently. Also, you can find counterpoints to many of the things I said and come up with a good argument for Mega Man to win. Thing is, I feel like you have to delve too deep too often to do that, whereas the signs for Solid Snake have oftentimes been right in our face and we notice it right off the bat. Because of that, I'm going with that feeling instead of my bracket (and personal preference, even, though both are two of the best out there).

Solid Snake wins with 52.12%

Crew Consensus: Whew...after all that, the Crew has reached a decision. Snake for the win! He's favored 6-1 by the Crew because of his impressive showings thus far. Will we be Crew Curse'd, or right for once?!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/8/2006 9:16:52 PM | message detail | #325
6-1 Snake?

Lopen for the point!

Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/8/2006 9:17:08 PM | message detail | #326
Way to go, Turtle. Even I managed to avoid breaking it. Couldn't you have waited just two minutes? D:
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
DpObliVion | Posted 11/8/2006 9:17:24 PM | message detail | #327
DpOblivion's Quick Analysis:

Samus underperforms. Zelda overperforms. What's gonna happen next round? Well, we got this round to deal with first. The first match between 2 Noble Niners is Solid Snake vs. Mega Man. MM beat SS with 57% in 2004. Since then, SS has had MGS3, and hype for MGS4 and SSBB, so SS has clearly grown since then. But will that be enough? Mega Man is a classic, and has been around the block quite a few more times than Snake has.

My vote: Solid Snake
My bracket: Mega Man
My prediction: Mega Man with 53%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
DpObliVion | Posted 11/8/2006 9:17:59 PM | message detail | #328
6-1 in favor of.....SNAKE? Wow....

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/8/2006 9:18:00 PM | message detail | #329
I thought he was done <_<

81/88 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/8/2006 9:18:06 PM | message detail | #330
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/8/2006 9:18:35 PM | message detail | #331
Besides, noone cares what Harrich has to say >_>

81/88 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
trannyscience | Posted 11/8/2006 9:19:55 PM | message detail | #332
hey karma hunter get a life nerdface


Karma Hunter | Posted 11/8/2006 9:22:05 PM | message detail | #333
no u
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 11/8/2006 9:22:19 PM | message detail | #334
owned :(
DpObliVion | Posted 11/8/2006 9:36:53 PM | message detail | #335
Who would've thought it would be everyone else making the stupid, crazy prediction, and with Lopen being the lone smart one?

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/8/2006 10:15:13 PM | message detail | #336
I'm sorry that not taking the character who's projected to win with 52.35% last year is is such a stupid choice.

Heh, you'd think that Luigi could have beaten Zero or something!!!
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/8/2006 10:29:16 PM | message detail | #337
Hit or miss Lopen shall hit once again!
CB06 - Score: 98/104 Rank: Tied - 213th Yesterday's Pick: Samus
Today's Pick: Zelda Tomorrow's Pick: Mega Man Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero, MC, Kirby
Lopen | Posted 11/8/2006 10:33:28 PM | message detail | #338
Now, I know you gots to know… why haven't I abandoned him for Snake like the rest of the crew almost certainly has?

Look, I'm psychic! Well, the point is easy to get now! Ha ha ha ha...
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Lugia2 | Posted 11/9/2006 5:59:10 AM | message detail | #339
Tradition is dead.


GF falls below 40%

Luigi gets in the third round

Crew doesn't get cursed.

Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/9/2006 9:28:42 AM | message detail | #340
difference this time around is that the writing is clearly on the wall, whereas Cloud hit everyone out of nowhere.

What? Cloud doubling up Sonic wasn't a big enough hint for you?
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/9/2006 9:37:54 AM | message detail | #341
Another Crew point for Kay Aitch in a Snake match!
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 11/9/2006 1:36:01 PM | message detail | #342
Well, at least this makes Dante look good.

Dante > Mega Man next year, book it !!
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/9/2006 1:37:42 PM | message detail | #343
...actually, if Mega Man doesn't rebound Dante really could win that match with Devil May Cry 4 on his side. o_________O
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/9/2006 1:37:44 PM | message detail | #344
i think Dp is worthy of an lol..?
Lopen | Posted 11/9/2006 1:44:14 PM | message detail | #345
Hey, I'm not joking about that booking! Mega Man's in very real danger from a good few non-noble-niners if he doesn't help himself. My money's on Post DMC4 Dante, Squall, or Vincent though, because they aren't held back by the old school support. I'm not seeing Mega Man lose to Ganondorf or Zelda anytime soon.
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
DpObliVion | Posted 11/9/2006 1:53:36 PM | message detail | #346
i think Dp is worthy of an lol..?

Indeed, tranny. Indeed.

I guess I better get to work on Sonic/Crono to try and redeem myself....

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/9/2006 2:41:34 PM | message detail | #347
My money's on Post DMC4 Dante, Squall, or Vincent though, because they aren't held back by the old school support. I'm not seeing Mega Man lose to Ganondorf or Zelda anytime soon.

Ha ha ha!

Oh, man, you never cease to make me laugh Lopen. =p

"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Lopen | Posted 11/9/2006 2:51:08 PM | message detail | #348
Mega Man would yank their old school support out from under then like a rug. A foul rug!

Mega Man > Zelda/Ganondorf (they're totally equal!), 53%+!
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
PokemonPatriarch | Posted 11/9/2006 2:55:13 PM | message detail | #349
It truly is sad to see my favorite of the NN drop down to last place :(
Proud fanboy of the Ogre Battle saga!!!
~~~Allah Approves~~~
wavedash101 | Posted 11/9/2006 2:58:40 PM | message detail | #350
Assuming MM does get into SSBB, and game that actually translates into contest strength...unlike generic MM game #45 or so...he'll remain above the elites...
Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down