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Fall 2006 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

DpObliVion | Posted 10/29/2006 8:56:55 PM | message detail | #101
DpOblivion's Quick Analysis:

This is a 3rd round match? Come on. Rikku doesn't deserve 3 matches. You know what? This is Quick Analysis....and this is over. There, nice and quick.

My vote: Hmm, someone I don't give a damn about, or someone I hate....Rikku
My bracket: Samus
My prediction: Samus with 72%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:00:12 PM | message detail | #102
yeah, but Rikku was in KH2, no? even a small role, I'd expect that to be worth something.

also, if you think Bowser/Ryu was an anomaly, 45% is pretty decent.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:02:03 PM | message detail | #103
Rikku's role in KH2 is one of the biggest non-factors I can possibly think of. She had one very brief appearance as a fairy...thing. It won't do anything.

"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 9:04:07 PM | message detail | #104
Yeah, she has like, 2 or 3 scenes, and I totally missed one of them until I had to backtrack and see it later. I wouldn't expect too much from that.

if you think Bowser/Ryu was an anomaly

*raises hand* Though, I'm not even sure what to think of Ryu 2005 or 2006 anymore.
Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Auron vs. Sub-Zero- Bracket: Auron - Vote: Auron (54/62)
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/29/2006 9:05:22 PM | message detail | #105
One appearance? Try, like, 4.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:06:48 PM | message detail | #106
And there's always the possibility of Samus being underrated or boosting a tiny bit for no apparent reason or just beating out the projections by a few points. I'd sooner expect Samus to exceed projections here than undershoot them. If she can't manage a doubling, for example, it'd be terribly disappointing.

"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:07:38 PM | message detail | #107
escaping a doubling wouldn't surprise me that much - if Samus exceeds 70% here I'll be really impressed.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:07:50 PM | message detail | #108
One appearance? Try, like, 4.

Okay. Four completely forgettable, completely stupid scenes that are going to do absolutely nothing to her popularity. And don't even try to say it would because that would just be so ridiculously biased...even for you. <<

"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/29/2006 9:09:46 PM | message detail | #109
Hey, I remembered them!
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/29/2006 10:50:55 PM | message detail | #110
I expect the stats to be pretty dead on... If Samus is underrated than so is Rikku. Oh, and darn you lopen.

Oh well... 20/21 possible points on the guest spot isn't so bad.

mmm feel the vibration baby
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/29/2006 10:54:00 PM | message detail | #111
Oh wow... silly me. I thought Samus was going against Yuna today. Hmmm... well I'm smoking something, and it must be good! Alright, Samus totally thrashes faces.

mmm feel the vibration baby
DpObliVion | Posted 10/29/2006 11:06:18 PM | message detail | #112
Ugh, only 35.87% get the match right, but I don't move up on the leaderboard. Looks like I won't be beating my record for highest spot (#13).

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
ShatteredElysium | Posted 10/30/2006 2:25:16 AM | message detail | #113
Looks like I may have under shot my prediction in this match. I really though the boost Samus received in the adjusted X-stats was too high last year hence why I went under the x-stats rating. Silly me for doubting lol x-stats. Hopefully Rikku will eat in to the percentage marginally so I don't come last.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/30/2006 12:48:46 PM | message detail | #114
You thought she was overrated? It's a good thing she's underrated!

mmm feel the vibration baby
smasherx | Posted 10/30/2006 12:53:31 PM | message detail | #115
If the rest of my bracket is perfect, can I join the analysis crew next year?
Upcoming: Samus, Tifa, Zelda, Yuna
Big Bob | Posted 10/30/2006 12:59:57 PM | message detail | #116
Random thought: I would take Rikku to beat Yuna.
Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 1:01:26 PM | message detail | #117
Four completely forgettable, completely stupid scenes that are going to do absolutely nothing to her popularity. And don't even try to say it would because that would just be so ridiculously biased...even for you. <<

I dunno. I thought the Gullwings stealing Yuffie's ice cream was pretty hardcore.
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 3:37:13 PM | message detail | #118
Auron............................59.63% 80252
Sub-Zero........................40.37% 54325
TOTAL VOTES.........................134577

35.87% of the brackets predicted this match correctly.

Good ol' bracket hurting Master Chief. Only 36% had Auron winning his four-pack, which is pretty sad. Anyway, Sub-Zero looks very good here, even breaking 40% against Auron. I'm impressed.

Today, Samus is doing slightly better than projected against Rikku.

Lopen - 9
KH - 9
HM - 8
Moltar - 8
Guest (Wigs, SilverNightmareX7, EC (2), TheRye, transience, Lady Ashe, Kleenex) - 8
Ulti - 6
Yoblazer - 3

Hit for Lopen, as going low pays off.
Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
DpObliVion | Posted 10/30/2006 8:49:07 PM | message detail | #119
Ulti is second to last? What the hell's going on?

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 10/30/2006 8:50:24 PM | message detail | #120
I agree, Dp. It's a disgrace that he is above Yo.
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
chaosarcher07 | Posted 10/30/2006 9:04:24 PM | message detail | #121
My FC2K6 Bracket: 54/64
Next match prediction: Samus
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 9:20:06 PM | message detail | #122
Limit Division: Round 3 - Match 50 – (1)Tifa Lockhart vs. (2)Princess Peach

Moltar’s Analysis

Round 1 – 76.18% vs. Ivy (23.82%)
Round 2 – 74.55% vs. The Boss (25.45%)

Ouch, The Boss doesn’t look so hot against Tifa.

Round 1 – 83.10% vs. Daisy (16.90%)
Round 2 – 50.01% vs. Jill (49.99%)

Jill still can’t break that 27 vote barrier against her opponent…

Hmm, in a match that was moderately exciting compared to the male bracket, Peach just barely makes it into Round 2. However, she was facing a Jill who was not at her 2004 strength. (Peach = Ryu H? Get out of my face). So where does this put both Ms. Valentine and the Princess? Low midcarders, which is what most expected them to be. This means they’re nowhere near Tifa’s level, so Tifa wins with blow-out ease.

Heck, low-midcards like Peach don’t belong in the Sweet Sixteen. Low-midcarders lose at the latest Round 2. In fact, let’s look at another low-midcarder who was snubbed thanks to the female bracket, and like Jill, he knows how to put on a good match.

Real Men, Real Snubs - Kefka

A clown. An angel. A piece of lettuce. All these words could be used to describe this character. His name is Kefka, and he’s a real man, and a snub in the 5th Character Battle.

*Shot of Kefka destroying the world*

Kefka entered the Contest scene in 2003, and people had high expectations for him. People thought Final Fantasy 6 characters would be as strong as the characters from other Final Fantasy games. Well, they were soon proven otherwise, because out of the gate, Kefka struggled with Pac-Man…hohoho! In a back and forth battle, the clown nearly beat Pac-Man. His next match then showed him getting destroyed by Crono with over 78% of the vote. Lol ff6, huh?

*Shot of Kefka running from Crono*

Oh, but he was back in 2004 to ruin more brackets! His Round 1 match was against Knuckles, and Kefka was the favorite to win. However, for anyone who thought longer than 3 seconds on this match saw that Knuckles had this all but locked up. I mean, you don’t go from struggling with Pac-Man to beating Knuckles. And that’s what Kefka did…he lost, and with that put a dent in many brackets. Oh Kefka…and even in 2005, “Franz” Kefka was even a bigger bracket favorite than casual favorite Tommy Vercetti! In a match that will be remembered for it’s barriers and craziness, Kefka suffered another crushing blow.

*Shot of Vercetti breaking through Kefka’s barriers*

But where is he now? Not in this Contest. Sure, he’s weak, just like all the other FF6 characters, so why should he come back? Simple, with him around, more people pick him to win in matches he’ll certainly lose. That makes the smart people who don’t pick him look better! Also, in his three years, he’s put on an interesting match each time, and that’s more than the female bracket has given us.

*Shot of Kefka frowning in a lone spotlight*

Kefka. A real man, and a real snub. (And a loser too!)

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Tifa will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Tifa: 68% - Peach: 32%

Ulti’s Analysis

Peach had a nice run this contest, including last round's classic. But not even I, Peach's biggest fanboy am dumb enough to think that she has a chance here. Hell, it'll be a moral victory if she so much as breaks 30%.

Prediction: Tifa with 67.67%

HM’s Analysis

Tifa Lockhart

Previous Matches:

Tifa Lockhart – 76.18% -- 96,118

Ivy Valentine – 23.82% -- 30,046

Tifa Lockhart – 74.55% -- 90,595

The Boss – 25.45% -- 30,934

Princess Peach

Previous Matches:

Princess Peach – 83.1% -- 90,611

Princess Daisy – 16.9% -- 18,423

Princess Peach – 50.01% -- 59,239

Jill Valentine – 49.99% -- 59,266
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 9:21:07 PM | message detail | #123
It’s very nice seeing Peach sitting nice in round 3 after just escaping a loss to Jill Valentine. Partially because I prefer Peach and partially because Nintendo/Square encounters are always good to see. Tifa had a pretty solid performance last round as well by disposing of The Boss without much of a problem.

What will be interesting about today’s match is to see just how much strength Peach actually has. We’ve seen her just brutally destroy Daisy and squeak out a close against Jill Valentine. There may be something to the whole “Peach gets votes until she’s up against someone people care about.” Sure, people may care about Jill, but that isn’t the test like this is. It’ll be interesting to see how well Peach holds up.

Tifa isn’t in any sort of danger here one way or another. She can underperform all she wants and it won’t make much difference considering her opponent is Samus. An overperformance might be in the cards, but I doubt it will make much difference unless it’s just a brutal beat down, which I don’t anticipate happening.

This is just another unfortunate no-brainer in the female bracket – and with two characters I don’t particularly care too much about – so on to Zelda’s demolition of Aeris !!

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Tifa Lockhart

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Tifa Lockhart – 67% ; Princess Peach – 33%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Princess Peach

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Tifa will obviously win the match, but I think (the now legendary...sorry Jill) Princess Peach will draw enough Nintendo support to avoid the doubling. And that's... really all I gots to say about that.

My prediction: Tifa Lockheart def. Princess Peach (66-34)

Lopen’s Analysis

Well, I guess Peach wasn't mega fodder after all. Damn, I hate being wrong about outrageous calls. In any case, mega fodder or not, Peach doesn't have a realistic chance. Tifa beat the more popular Luigi last year. It wasn't a commanding victory, but it was a victory nonetheless.

Now the question for the silly %age guessing game is this: How much more popular is Luigi than Peach? Or heck, you know what the real question is? Is Jill Valentine more or less popular than 2 years ago? I know that's what the other analysts are gonna be thinking, regardless of whether they admit it. Tifa gets 67.04% on 2k4 Jill Valentine, expect plenty of scores in that neighborhood. Yeap.

Now I'm conflicted, here. Intuition tells me that Jill dropped and also that Peach isn't that popular. (I didn't say fodder again!) Bias tells me that "Sheena couldn't possibly be that weak! Jill must've rose to 2k2 levels !!".

But bias also enjoys seeing Peach, Daisy, and Jill as weak as possible! Sorry, Sheena, you're gonna have to take one for the team! Wait wait… I thought of something. Something to justify a high %! I remember what I said: "Peach will be like Nintendo's Pac-Man, she'll be able to defeat fodder easily (and apparently some mid-carders) but she'll utterly collapse against good competition!". Peach… meet good competition! Yeahhh!

Lopen's Prediction: Tifa with 71.49%

KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Tifa Lockheart

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 16th Place [30.77%]

Tifa puts another feather in the cap of the FF/MGS SFF argument. Schweet.

Princess Peach

lol N/A

Peach hands Jill her second 27 vote loss of her contest career. Poor Jill...

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Tifa Lockheart: Kingdom Hearts 2 (PS2)
Princess Peach: Super Mario Bros. 2 (NES), Super Mario RPG (SNES),
Super Princess Peach (DS)

Upcoming Releases

Tifa Lockheart: N/A
Princess Peach: N/A
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 9:21:58 PM | message detail | #124
I'm going out to get FFXII as we speak, so you get another Ulti-style writeup. Only one that's biased against Peach! DIE JOKE FODDER DIE

Karma Hunter's Vote:

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Tifa Lockheart with 67.55% .

More or less what the stats say -- Peach should be stronger than Jill 2k4, but we should also have a stronger Tifa here. Hence, this.

Upset Potential: 0%


Guest’s Analysis - Vlado

And so, we have another match with a clear outcome. Unfortunately, it seems Tifa won't have what's at least close battle this contest (a.k.a. she's not gonna face Zelda, the only opponent who could've given her a close match in the female half). Samus is still too strong, it seems Tifa wouldn't be able to threaten her, but I still believe she'll give her a very close one, at least. Tifa is much stronger than last year, and she'll prove it.

So now, let's look at her opponent. Peach is someone who definitely didn't deserve to make it so far. Vote stuffing aside, if bracket voting weren't a factor, Jill would have beaten her with relative ease. Well, the two are close enough to consider their strength equal, of course. This contest has, however, proven that Peach is not even remotely close to Yoshi and Luigi, who defeated much stronger opponent with much greater margin.

"lol xstats" say Tifa would get around 64-65% on Ryu Hayabusa last year. Well, as we've seen, Ryu = Jill = Peach. However, Tifa this year is much stronger than she was a year ago. It's a given she'll score better on Samus than she did on Sonic last year. Advent Children and Dirge of Cerberus, as well as the upcoming release of Final Fantasy XII (in just a couple of hours, this will definitely affect today's match), are important factors that should boost her a few percent. The Boss, Tifa's last opponent, is definitely weaker than Peach and Jill, however, the margin can't be very big. Whether there was some SFF in that match, however, as we've seen in pretty much every FFVII/Metal Gear battle, is anyone's guess.

So, Tifa is the absolute favourite here, anything below a doubling will be a surprise. In fact, if Tifa fails to double Peach, you might as well write her off completely for her match against Samus. Not even a supposed FFXII boost for FF characters can help her much unless she's already very strong. So yeah... Tomorrow's match is a test for Tifa's true strength and her ability to threaten Samus. Without doubt, she's Samus' strongest opponent in the female half and, should Samus beat her, the female champ will be clear. To those who like to suggest impossible scenarios, no, Zelda can't beat Samus, in fact, she'd just get SFF'd like Ganon was last year, and definitely lose by more than Tifa would, even if their strength is somewhat close.

As for Peach, avoiding a doubling would be an achievement for her. I hope it doesn't happen, I'd rather have my hopes get crushed in a week than now. At the end, Peach was the Nintendo character who got the closest to losing to a non-Noble Nine opponent, which exposes her as by far Nintendo's weakest representative at this point. Let me reiterate, if bracket voting didn't exist, Jill would have won that match by at least 1000 votes.

So, Tifa has nothing to worry about. Much like in the previous two battles, the only thing she has to fight against is herself, and the percentage numbers. Should she double Peach, she's definitely in good shape to challenge Samus, once FFXII hype has really picked up and there are much more FF fans on the site than usual. I expect Tifa to achieve that doubling, and then some. I hope I don't get disappointed so early.

Prediction: Tifa with 70.63%.

Crew Consensus: Tifa with the easy win over Peach. Mid-high 60's to low 70's...kinda the same range Samus had.
chaosarcher07 | Posted 10/30/2006 9:26:37 PM | message detail | #125
Vlado doesn't have the highest pick?
My FC2K6 Bracket: 58?/68?
Next match prediction: Zelda
Lopen | Posted 10/30/2006 9:27:56 PM | message detail | #126
Hahaha... told ya!
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
DpObliVion | Posted 10/30/2006 9:28:46 PM | message detail | #127
DpOblivion's Quick Analysis:

I can't even think about these blowout matches, not with Aeris/Zelda looming around the corner. Peach beat Jill by 27 votes, so there's no chance in hell of her beating Final Fantasy's babe, Tifa.

My vote: Princess Peach
My bracket: Tifa
My prediction: Tifa with 69%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
HaRRicH | Posted 10/30/2006 9:28:56 PM | message detail | #128
I'm surprised, too. I'm not sure if I should support Vlado or insult Lopen for this!
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
Big Bob | Posted 10/30/2006 9:29:22 PM | message detail | #129
Big Bob's completely biased and nonsensical analysis

You may think Tifa has this match in the bag, but I gotta tell you something: Peach beat JILL. Do I have to remind you that in 2k3, Jill outdid Luigi's percentage on Squall? The same Squall that was behind Link/Samus SFF? Jill's still strong, especially with the Resident Evil boost. And now it's time for Peach to show her stuff. Tifa beat Luigi last year, but it wasn't too impressive. And did anyone who wasn't a FFVII fan before really like Tifa now that Advent Children came out?

Also, keep in mind how much Luigi has boosted. If Peach is stronger than Luigi, and Luigi boosted since NSMB, Peach is likely to boost as well. She easily had a larger part in that game than Luigi or Bowser.

Bob's Prediction: Peach with 60%
Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 9:33:59 PM | message detail | #130
Hmm, I actually like Yo's pick the best at the moment. I have a bad feeling Peach will do well tommorrow.
Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
Lopen | Posted 10/30/2006 9:34:16 PM | message detail | #131
Insult me while you can, HaRRicH... Vlado and I are the only two in contention for this point! Soon we shall behold the power of The Pac-Man Factor in all its glory!
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/30/2006 9:34:31 PM | message detail | #132
I have a good feeling Peach will do well tommorrow.

Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 9:36:38 PM | message detail | #133
The better Peach does, the better she looks, and that's no good!!
Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
trannyscience | Posted 10/30/2006 9:37:03 PM | message detail | #134
I like Lopen's analysis. one of my favourite analyses of the contest so far!
DpObliVion | Posted 10/30/2006 10:51:14 PM | message detail | #135
Moltar's pretty dead-on for today's prediction.

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
DpObliVion | Posted 10/30/2006 11:04:04 PM | message detail | #136
Moltar’s Prediction is: Samus: 69% - Rikku: 31%

Samus Aran 69% 85439
Rikku 31% 38387

Hooray Moltar!

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/30/2006 11:06:15 PM | message detail | #137
Nice freaking job Moltar. Although it was kinda lucky 'cause you never go into even tenths of a percentage, heh.
CB06 - Score: 62/68 Rank: Tied - 424th Yesterday's Pick: Samus
Today's Pick: Tifa Tomorrow's Pick: Zelda Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero, MC, Kirby
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/30/2006 11:39:02 PM | message detail | #138
Crono vs. Bowser
+7 KH
+6 Lo
+5 Ulti
+4 Mo
+3 Yo
+2 HM
+1 Guest

Auron vs. Sub-Zero
+7 Lo
+6 Guest
+5 Yo
+4 HM (tie)
+4 Mo (tie)
+2 KH
+1 Ulti

Samus Aran vs. Rikku
+7 Mo
+6 Ulti
+5 HM
+4 Yo
+3 Lo
+2 KH
+1 Guest

The Rankings (Through Samus vs. Rikku)
1. Master Moltar (208)
2. Heroic Mario (195)
2. Karma Hunter (195)
4. Yoblazer (183)
5. UltimaterializerX (177)
6. Board 8 (156)
7. Lopen (121)

And Heroic Mario once again pulls into a tie with Karma Hunter. With his lower Tifa prediction, HM is heavily favored to have sole possession of second place by tomorrow. Not bad for a guy who picked Ganondorf to win four matches. >_>
I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
LordLockeRA | Posted 10/31/2006 1:35:53 AM | message detail | #139
Did Vlado just say SAMUS was going to SFF another Nintendo character?

In other news, the sky is falling.
Meeh. Whatever.
transience | Posted 10/31/2006 1:59:17 AM | message detail | #140
Lugia2 | Posted 10/31/2006 5:45:57 AM | message detail | #141
Lopen, when you're wrong, you're wrong. You only seem to get points when you're with the majority.

Besides him and Vlado, it's really surprising how close you all were. Just within a couple of points! Even Karma Hunter didn't go insane...And he called Peach fodder, in spite of having Peach behind by just one more point. Interesting...
Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2006 4:02:14 PM | message detail | #142
Samus Aran.....................69% 85439
Rikku...............................31% 38387
TOTAL VOTES......................123826

83.95% of the brackets predicted this match correctly.

This match ends up pretty close to the projected result. Seems Rikku was more or less legit in 2005, and Samus hasn't lost a step either.

Today, Peach is doing just fine against Tifa.

Moltar - 9
Lopen - 9
KH - 9
HM - 8
Guest (Wigs, SilverNightmareX7, EC (2), TheRye, transience, Lady Ashe, Kleenex) - 8
Ulti - 6
Yoblazer - 3

It's like I looked into the future for my perfect pick!
Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Tifa vs. Peach - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Tifa (60/68)
Lopen | Posted 10/31/2006 6:26:54 PM | message detail | #143
You only seem to get points when you're with the majority.

I'll have you know most of my points come from being far from the majority! Or... at least a good half!
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
DpObliVion | Posted 10/31/2006 7:40:24 PM | message detail | #144
DpOblivion's Extremely Quick Analysis:

I don't even give a **** anymore. Zelda wins.

My vote: Zelda
My bracket: Aeris
My prediction: Zelda with 58.18%

Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2006 8:39:33 PM | message detail | #145
Triforce Division: Round 3 - Match 51 – (1)Princess Zelda vs. (2)Aeris Gainsborough

Moltar’s Analysis

Round 1 – 86.08% vs. Carmen (13.92%)
Round 2 – 79.45% vs. Terra (20.55%)

Zelda puts up some scary numbers on Terra.

Round 1 – 69.78% vs. Marle (30.22%)
Round 2 – 61.65% vs. KOS-MOS (38.35%)

Aeris does decently on KOS-MOS.

Hey, a match in the female bracket that’s actually important! Time to pay attention to this one! Zelda or Aeris? Let’s rock!

Before the Contest, this match didn’t get much talk. Many people went with Zelda, reasoning being either TP or 46% on the strongest Snake yet, and called it a match. There have been some Aeris supporters, who may have had arguments before the Contest with KH2 and AC and stuffs, but now?

Eh…let’s just say Aeris hasn’t looked too hot. 70% on some CT character is alright, I guess, and what she got on KOS-MOS doesn’t really look good no matter how you spin it…but does this mean that Aeris didn’t benefit much, or even at all from KH2? Hard to say.

Zelda, on the other hand, has been very impressive as usual. Yeah, her opponents were total fodder, but the numbers are still impressive. I mean, I didn’t think Zelda was in much trouble here before the Contest, and I don’t feel any worse now.

…Yeah, that’s the best Round 3 has to offer us. LoZ vs. FF7…and it won’t even be all that good. Stupid matches that are close but not close enough to be interesting. FFXII may help keep Aeris in the game, but I’m expecting Zelda to be looking better than ever.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Zelda will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Zelda: 54% - Aeris: 46%

Ulti’s Analysis

This WAS debatable match until last round happened. Zelda goes berserk on Terra, while Aeris struggles to break 60% on a cult RPG icon in KOS-MOS. Xenosaga 3 didn't move KOS-MOS anywhere, and any fan of the game will tell you that. Aeris just bombed, plain and simple. What was a debatable match has the potential to start a Zelda > Samus bandwagon.

Honestly, Aeris might be thankful just to break 45%, and I seriously wouldn't be shocked to see Zelda break 60 here. Vincent > Tifa > Aeris comfirmed!

Prediction: Zelda with 57.46%

HM’s Analysis


Previous Matches:

Zelda – 86.08% -- 102,509

Carmen Sandiego – 13.92% -- 16,578

Zelda – 79.45% -- 92,826

Terra Branford – 20.55% -- 24,005

Aeris Gainsborough

Previous Matches:

Aeris Gainsborough – 69.78% -- 80,305

Marle – 30.22% -- 34,779

Aeris Gainsborough – 61.65% -- 70,006

KOS-MOS – 38.35% -- 43,543

The match of the female bracket is finally here! …But it’s not going to be nearly as exciting as some people were thinking pre-contest! Since the start of the contest, Zelda has come out looking absolutely dominative against both of her opponents. She scored the highest blowout in round 1 and also is still the only character to ever get 100,000 individual votes. She came out strong in round 2, too, with about a 7% overperformance on Square’s own Terra Branford. Needless to say, she’s looked good enough to take the entire bracket, but we just give the crown to Hyrule’s lovely princess just yet!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2006 8:40:22 PM | message detail | #146
Zelda’s competition, however, has not looked good at all. Aeris came out with what was considered an underperformance by failing to break 70% on Marle. She then went on to undershoot all of her 2003 projections on all of KOS-MOS’s values, from 2003 – 2005. It’s pretty clear to me that Aeris’s best case scenario is to be equal to her old value, much less increase. In all likelihood, and this wouldn’t be surprising, Aeris might end up back at her old 2002 value. The fact that she gained a minor 2% in the year that Square was at their absolute finest -- AKA, “Square shift” – it should speak well about her now.

There’s also the fact that Aeris has not made another appearance in the bracket in three years. Even after CJayC dropped the company cap, she still was not able to make it. The fact that it took her until there was a guaranteed spot for 32 females speaks wonders, I think. Aeris 2k3 just isn’t the Aeris now. And this isn’t relying on Aeris weakness to win because Zelda was already expected to beat her with about 51% in 2005 (and I expect Zelda to have boosted a bit), when using Aeris 2k3.

I expect this match to go in favor of Zelda with absolute ease. I don’t think we’re going to see her struggle here. I have a feeling that Zelda will put up some pretty dominant numbers to go along with her other performances. Can she beat Samus? We can hope! But as for now, she can just assume her role as the “Square Killer” for this contest (Terra, Aeris, and Yuna)!

Oh, and by the time this is posted and you’re reading, as well as by the time the match starts, there should be a brand-new Twilight Princess trailer out, along with detailed impressions from the final version from tons of media outlets. Why does do, aside from the obvious? It certainly helps that Zelda is finally shown in-game casting a badass spell !!

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Zelda

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Zelda – 55% ; Aeris Gainsborough – 45%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Zelda!

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Unless Chun-Li brings in her A+++ game out of nowhere, this is probably the only third round match with any potential. Such a shame, huh?

Going by both their first two matches, there's no question who's heading into this match as the favorite. While Aeris has failed to impress on two separate occasions, Zelda has been one of, if not the most impressive entrants in either half of the bracket. She had one of the most legendary performances in Character Battle history against Carmen Sandiego, becoming the first character to ever break 100,000 individual votes, and the first non-Noble 9 character to win with over 85% of the vote.

Of course, obliterating fodder and beating legitimately strong characters are far from one in the same. Even though Aeris has not matched Zelda's level of utter dominance, she's still a character with a very impressive two-year contest history under her belt. She has broken 43% against Solid Snake, 47% against Sonic the Hedgehog, and doubled Sora via some wicked SFF. Don't get me wrong - I still expect Zelda to win this match without much trouble, but I would be surprised if Aeris weren't to put up a respectable performance, and I'd be completely shocked if Zelda approached 60% like I've been seeing some people toss around.

My prediction: Zelda def. Aeris Gainsborough (54-46)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2006 8:41:13 PM | message detail | #147
Lopen’s Analysis

When the bracket was first released, I thought this match deserved way more debate than it received. Well, I can't deny Zelda's looking more the favorite coming into this match. But her little fodder smashing tricks aren't what are convincing me in this one. In fact, the main reason I think Zelda's looking to be the favorite is more because of Aeris. Aeris just hasn't been doing too well. I expected more on Marle, and although I made a BOLD PREDICTION that Aeris would do worse than Ryu against KOS-MOS (unfortunately not here!), you can't say that's a good thing for Aeris's chances!

But killing fodder is just killing fodder. Zelda getting 83% on Carmen Sandiego and 79% on Terra isn't impressing me much. Fishy stuff just happens sometimes, look at that crazy stuff Samus pulled in 2004. 80% on Lara Croft and Sam Fisher? "She's beatin' Cloud!", they said! Tifa did it last year against Vyse too, it didn't matter It's in the victories against opponents that are worth their salt that you find true knowledge!

Even if Zelda gets 60% on Aeris, I'm not sounding the Zelda/Samus upset alarms, though I'm sure most everybody else will be. If it happens, I'm blaming Aeris. But… I don't think it will happen. This match is still debatable if you ask me. Even with the 61% on KOS-MOS,

Lopen's Prediction: Zelda with 52.01%.

KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history


Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 19th Place [30.29%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 14th Place [30.89%]

Zelda beats Terra worse than Mario's expected to, after the Devil Division all but validated itself and Terra/Kerrigan went exactly to expectations. Ouch.

Aeris Gainsborough

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 12th Place [30.62%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 15th Place [32.81%]

Instead of overperforming like I half-anticipated, Aeris underperforms immensely against KOS-MOS, and that's not something you can afford to do when your opponent looks like Mario. Double OUCH.

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Zelda: N/A
Aeris Gainsborough: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2)

Upcoming Releases

Zelda: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (WII)
Aeris Gainsborough: Final Fantasy XII (aw yeah)

Hey, funny story guys. I just checked my bracket last night out of boredom, and apparently I have Zelda winning this match (and Yuna winning her match, and Zero winning his fourpack making my stressing out over Kirby winning pseudo-ironic). Now, aside from the fact that I'm not particularly sure when I changed my bracket in a drunken stupor or whether I even still have Cloud > Link, this actually makes me a ton more relieved, and it's easy to see why. Zelda is just simply flat-out stronger than Aeris here today, and I'm 99% sure of it. Hey, them's the breaks, but between being freaking Zelda and just being that much more impressive, to call her anything but the favorite would be an insult.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Aeris. Because even though somehow this hurts my bracket, I can't bring myself to vote for Zelda. Well, maybe against, not even then.

Upset Prediction: Zelda with 53.47%


Upset Potential: 40%


However, apparently my conscious hasn't caught up to my subconscious, because I'm still putting my chips in with Aeris (well, my Crew/Oracle chips at least). If Zelda and Aeris are near-equals I see Aeris taking this match without too much of a problem, and we all know the reason why I think this—Final Fantasy XII.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2006 8:41:51 PM | message detail | #148
There are some that say FFXII will have a negligble or minimal effect. To be frank, these people are fooling themselves. If Aeris doesn't win this match, she will be overrated in the stats. Period. I don't care if she ends up with 49% or 45% or 40%, she would have gotten less if FFXII hadn't come out on the day of her match.

FFXII will definitely bring an influx of people here for the FAQs, and the people that it brings will favor Aeris. The fact that she is not in the game is irrelevant. These are people coming on to GameFAQs looking for FAQs for a Final Fantasy game. Do you think there is perhaps a slight chance that these people will prefer Aeris more than the people here for Zelda FAQs or Mortal Kombat FAQs? I for one, don't see how you can deny it. If the voting were confined just to the people that came here for FFXII FAQs, it would definitely be more in Aeris' favor compared to the general GameFAQs population. This is common sense, here, and for chrissakes we've seen it once before.

Now, does that mean that the group will prefer Aeris unanimously? Hell no, that's just as absurd as to say it would have no effect at all, and if it did I'd be calling Aeris a mortal lock despite everything that we've seen right here. There's no guarantee that it will outright prefer Aeris -- that is to say, if Zelda wins 56-44, the FFXII influx favors Zelda 51-49. It favors Aeris more than the overall population, but still prefers Zelda.

This much seems to be obvious. But at the end of the day Aeris has to be close enough for it to make a difference, and I really think that she is despite everything we've seen this year. I'm getting a really big Snake/Bowser vibe from this match, where after Snake looked unbeatably dominating and Bowser looked terribly unimpressive they had one of the closest matches in contest history. I don't think Zelda is at Mario level, and honestly I don't think she's much stronger than her 2k5 self, if at all. Ganondorf didn't give me reason to fear, at least. And while Aeris underperformed, I have a hard time seeing her just getting blown out. She's still Final Fantasy VII, and I'm not used to seeing weakness come out of that game.

Yeah, Bowser had a picture advantage. But y'know what, Aeris' pic advantage over Zelda today ain't too shabby either. And hopefully FFXII can bring in enough outside support to push her over the edge.

Or not, seeing as how that would apparently kill my bracket. And it doesn't exactly fill me with confidence when I realize this is probably the longest writeup I've done (Ulti's Halo/Starcraft is the exception, not the rule). But you get what I mean!

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Aeris with 50.57%

Guest’s Analysis - BlAcK TuRtLe

Last round, Zelda impresses greatly by beating the crap out of Terra worse than Vincent was projected to while Aeris disappointed against KOS-MOS by performing worse than Luigi did last year.

This is pretty much the only match left on the female side which has had any real debate behind it, since Zelda and Tifa were extremely close in last year's stats. People are assuming that Aeris is roughly at the same strength as Tifa, despite her 2 year absence in 2k4 and 2k5 and Tifa getting a 1 seed to Aeris' 2-seed.

So far in this contest, all signs have been pointing to a Zelda win. Zelda has been looking extremely impressive with her record setting blowout of Carmen Sandiego and absolute destruction of Terra. It's safe to say that this year, Zelda is geared up and ready for action.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2006 8:42:55 PM | message detail | #149
Aeris on the other hand is coming off a "meh" performance against Marle and her absolute ball-drop against KOS-MOS. Aeris failed to match Luigi's performance on 2k5 KOS-MOS by 5%. The same Luigi that went on to lose comfortably to Tifa. I think it's safe to say that Aeris is considerably weaker than her well-endowed cast-mate, so it seems as though Zelda has this match pretty much in the bag. How much in the bag is the real question.

Last year's x-stats have Tifa and Zelda pretty much equal. Since KOS-MOS performed 5% better on Aeris than she did Luigi, it would be safe to assume that Aeris is probably around Luigi's 2k5 level after you factor in the fact that KOS-MOS had a new game about 3 weeks before her match against Aeris.

Running Zelda against Luigi last year gives us:

Zelda (2005c) VS Luigi (2005c)

Zelda has a strength of 33.71.
Luigi has a strength of 31.32.

Zelda wins with 53.54% of the vote!
A win of 7,248 with 102,228 total votes cast.

Plug in the fact that Zelda seems stronger this year, along with the fact that Luigi did considerably better and Zelda winning with 55% is a good place to start. Factor in any increase from TP coming out in 3 weeks cancelling out any boost Aeris gets from FF12 traffic and you get my prediction of:

TuRtLe's Prediction: Zelda with 56.23%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Zelda
TuRtLe's Vote: Zelda

Crew Consensus: Zelda wins, but KH is hoping for the Aeris upset. Zelda pickers range from the low to mid-high 50's.
Lugia2 | Posted 10/31/2006 9:04:56 PM | message detail | #150
Well, looks like Aeris di-

*Gets killed by moderators*

But who didn't know that beforehand? Oye.
Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much.