GameFAQs Contests
Fall 2006 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 2:02:43 AM | message detail | #201 |
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Hopefully Leonhart shows SOME brains and puts Snake on a 50.01% win just to give the Guests some hope Sounds to me like YOU'VE already conceded! --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| transience | Posted 10/21/2006 2:02:44 AM | message detail | #202 |
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Snake looks perfectly fine there. I don't understand why people are
saying Squall has this match suddenly. we've seen pictures that are
miles worse. --- xyzzy |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 2:02:54 AM | message detail | #203 |
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And I might actually be motivated to work on Metal Gear Squallid if Squall wins! --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 2:02:55 AM | message detail | #204 |
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...But while on the subject of bad pictures... LINK LOST TO CLOUD IN 2003 BECAUSE OF THE WIND WAKER PIC. (I know how much you love that.) --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 2:03:40 AM | message detail | #205 |
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There's nothing wrong with the Old Snake picture in and of itself. We
just don't know how well-liked the image of Snake it has created is. --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| SilverNightmareX7 | Posted 10/21/2006 2:07:16 AM | message detail | #206 |
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Hopefully Leonhart shows SOME brains and puts Snake on a 50.01% win just to give the Guests some hope Sounds to me like YOU'VE already conceded! Nah, I just want to see every last analysis be wrong and for me to be the lone person with the nuts to put it all on teh man. Reality is Squall wins 50.51%. --- ~*~ Board 8's Champion MILF Hunter ~*~ |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 2:08:35 AM | message detail | #207 |
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Ha, you think the resident Squall fan is going to be caught unaware? Not so fast, my friend! *breaks pencil* --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 2:09:56 AM | message detail | #208 |
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It's a well known fact that Snake is winning with 53% !! --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 2:10:19 AM | message detail | #209 |
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There's nothing wrong with the Old Snake picture in and of itself.
We just don't know how well-liked the image of Snake it has created is. Indeed. From a purely aesthetic standpoint, you can make a strong case for this being the best picture Snake's ever had. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 2:10:24 AM | message detail | #210 |
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It's a well-known fact that Heroic Mario is a well-known fibber! --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/21/2006 2:28:27 AM | message detail | #211 |
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Wow, another point for the guests maybe? Lara is expected to knock off
a bit with the day vote, right? If so, damn.... who would have though
the guests would catch so much momentum after getting like 1 point in
the first half? --- CB06 - Score: 40/44 Rank: Tied - 1085th Yesterday's Pick: Yuna Today's Pick: Chun Li Tomorrow's Pick: Snake Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero, MC |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 2:30:39 AM | message detail | #212 |
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The guests are going streaking then! But while we're sort of on the subject of match pictures, I've always wanted CJayC to use this picture, but he never has. It's not a particularly difficult one to find either. http://images.quizilla.com/D/DY/DYS/DysfunctionalGumbo/1134349891_icssquall2.jpg ...Don't know if it would have the same effect without the background, but I think it's one of Squall's better pictures. --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 8:17:09 AM | message detail | #213 |
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Solid's pic is not that bad at all, and I would definitely lean towards
Yoshi/Dante being far more unfair in Yoshi's favor, than Snake/Squall
is, hell, I don't even know if you can say Squall has the clear pic
advantage, they both look good, the MGS4 trailor that a bunch of people
wanted to say would boost snake, is now going to harm him because the
picture? Eh, no. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 2:14:23 PM | message detail | #214 |
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The point is mine, gentlemen !! --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 3:06:33 PM | message detail | #215 |
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The point tomorrow will be mine! --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/21/2006 3:21:19 PM | message detail | #216 |
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The respect I lost for HM when he gambled away the best account name on
B8 has just been regained - the only person to show faith in Lara?
Score. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz AC2K6 Score: 44/46 Today: Chun (euw) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 3:24:17 PM | message detail | #217 |
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Yuna.....................78.05% 89711 Joanna Dark.........21.95% 25229 TOTAL VOTES..................114940 70.10% of the brackets predicted this match correctly. Wow, Yuna almost did as well against Joanna as Mario did...Yuna for winner? Nah, just some fodder fluctuation is all. That means its an overperformance! Today, Chun-Li has 55% against Lara, in a match that started out with over 60% for Chunners. Guest (Wigs, SilverNightmareX7, EC (2), TheRye, transience, Lady Ashe, Kleenex) - 8 Moltar - 7 KH - 7 Lopen - 7 Ulti - 5 HM - 5 Yoblazer - 2 It's great being off by more than 10 points, yet still being closest. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Chun-Li vs. Lara - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (42/46) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/21/2006 9:32:56 PM | message detail | #218 |
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Wow, talk about spot-on for my Chun-Li prediction. *gloats* The only
question now is how close it will end up, it just keeps inching
closer.... --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 9:58:20 PM | message detail | #219 |
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Patriot Division: Round 2 - Match 41 – (1)Solid Snake vs. (4)Squall Leonhart Moltar’s Analysis Snake Round 1 – 82.15% vs. Soma (17.85%) Snake has no troubles making Soma look like fodder. Squall Round 1 – 72.02% vs. Tidus (27.98%) Ouch, this SFF-beatdown went a lot worse than most expected. WOO Male-half Round 2! It’s looking to be very interesting too, with Squall, Vincent and Bowser all looking to challenge the Noble Nine. How close will they get to them, and can any of the manage to pull off the huge upset? Who knows…but we can guess, right? First up is Solid Snake vs. Squall. To be honest, Squall looked much more impressive in Round 1. Yeah, SFF did help him out, but still, how much of that could be SFF? Squall was also in KH2, so he should be stronger than last year, and 2005 Squall would get 47.55% on Snake. Could KH2 push him over the edge? It could, but I don’t think it will. In fact, I’m expecting Squall to do slightly worse than expected. Remember, the two faced off in 2002 (points shotgun in the face of whoever says lol 2002), and Snake embarrassed Squall badly. Now, I’m not calling for anything like that here, but Snake MAY, and I repeat MAY, slightly overperform on Squall thanks to…weird PlayStation SFF? I don’t know. Either way, overperformance or not, I still think Snake is a tad out of Squall’s reach. Also, we’ve seen a ton of Noble Nine breakers go up against Snake, and Snake has overcome them all. Squall is just going to be another victim! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake will win. Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 54% - Squall: 46% Ulti’s Analysis FINALLY. Jill/Peach aside, we get back to the superior half of this bracket. Oh and rant time. Why does everyone on the board like Solid Snake's character but not Squall's? They're the same damn thing. The only real fault Squall has is having a stupid taste in women, though he redeemed himself by being a fine piece of ass in Kingdom Hearts. Not so much in KH2, though the scene where Aeris wins a staredown against him is priceless. As for the actual match, Squall has a lot of reasons to do well here. KH2, mainly. 45% isn't out of the question, but people calling for him to win are probably a little off. Bracket voting alone should save Snake from any upset bids, but I still think Squall is going to do damn well for himself here. The Snake > MM upset train might stop in the second round of this contest. Prediction: Snake with 52.89% HM’s Analysis Solid Snake Previous Matches: Solid Snake – 82.15% -- 86,697 Soma Cruz – 17.85% -- 19,487 Squall Leonhart Previous Matches: Squall Leonhart – 72.02% -- 82,091 Tidus – 27.98% -- 31,893 Ah, yes, the first of many potential Noble Nine breaker matches. This is perhaps the most likely one to happen of them all right next to Sonic/Vincent. Both Squall and Snake both came out looking very impressive last round with two big blowouts. These two were also very close to each other last year, enough that it would be reasonable to take the upset. Last year, this match was projected to be a 52/48 match in favor of Snake. And while that is certainly enough where year-to-year variation can change the result, Squall actually had something big in his favor with Kingdom Hearts II. That alone has the power to potentially give him enough to squeak out a win. But, Solid Snake came out of E3 very strong with an amazing new Metal Gear Solid 4 trailer and the absolutely huge announcement of Snake appearing in Super Smash Bros. Brawl. They may be just hype, but that’s the best hype you can have next to Twilight Princess. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 9:58:54 PM | message detail | #220 |
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It will be very interesting to see how
this one plays out. Both of these characters look be close together and
both have reasons to potentially increase. We have seen this
match before in 2002 where Snake absolutely wrecked Squall – some even
speculate that there could have been SFF – and I don’t think the result
is going to change too much. Snake will definitely not get nearly as
high, but he should win this one without much of a problem. The Noble Nine will live another day – and considering it’s Snake winning, we can all be thankful. Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Solid Snake Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Solid Snake – 53% ; Squall Leonhart – 47% Aitch Emm’s Vote: Solid “Old” Snake. Yoblazer’s Analysis Maybe it's just because I haven't taken the time to really look into things, but I'm not sure whether the few people calling for the upset here are serious or not. Could Squall Leonhart have gained enough strength in the past four years to reverse (well, not reverse, but overturn) a 65/35 loss? Contrary to what some people may say, I think that Squall has always been relatively strong. He beat Luigi with 60% in 2003, beat Kirby with 55% in 2004, and was almost Vincent's equal in 2005. In actuality, 2002 was his only disappointing year. Was that because he didn't have Kingdom Hearts under his belt? Partially, yes, but it was mainly because he was up against one of the few opponents best suited to kick his teeth in. Face it, there's no logical reason for Squall to benefit that much more from Kingdom Hearts than any other character from any other boost. One game won't take any character from chump to Noble 9 breaker, although it can help get him up there. Look what Snake did against Sora last year. Do you think something similar happened to Squall four years ago, or do you think that it was a legitimate result and he's shot up like a rocket since then? Personally, I believe the former, and I believe Snake will overperform once again. Will Squall do better this time around? For the sake of all that is good and holy, his fans better hope so. Will he actually challenge Snake or come anywhere near as close to beating him as Bowser did last year? Don't count on it. My prediction: Solid Snake def. Squall Leonhart (57-43) Lopen’s Analysis We saw this match back in 2002. It's going down exactly the same today, baby! Snake shall strike down Squall with great vengeance! Okay, not exactly the same. I can't say that Squall's not going to make this at least a little closer from Kingdom Hearts 1 and 2. (and Chain of Memories, we mustn't forget that!) However, Squall is still going to be made out to look like a fool. Why, you ask? Snake'll probably find that echidna burger that's still in Squall's stomach. The cravings will drive him insane… he hasn't had one in a couple of years. They give him everlasting youth. MGS4? Yeap, lack of echidna burgers taking their toll. So anyway, Snake'll go into a mad frenzy, and then he'll have no choice but to devour him in an echidna-like fashion. Blah blah MGS/FF8 interaction make %s go crazy blah blah. There, analysis… happy? Lopen's prediction: Solid Snake with 59.54% KH’s Analysis lol x-stats history SOLID SNAKE "A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." Summer 2002 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 9th Place [35.23%] Summer 2003 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 8th Place [34.74%] Summer 2004 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 12th Place [30.82%] Summer 2005 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 9th Place [33.88%] |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 9:59:25 PM | message detail | #221 |
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Snake is looking pretty hot after dispatching handily of Soma Cruz, a
character many thought could break the contest prior to that match. In
fact, he dispatched of him *so* handily that people actually started
throwing around Konami SFF to explain the performance. Because, y'know
Soma being that weak (or Snake being that strong ?!) is impossible and all. Anywho, Snake gets his first real challenge here, and it's a doozy. If he wants to show any prospects of getting past Mega Man in their third showdown, he'll have to make this win over Squall convincing...assuming he wins at all. WOO SNAKE SQUALL LEONHART "I'm more complex than you think." Summer 2002 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 20th Place [24.36%] Summer 2003 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 16th Place [30.7% ] Summer 2004 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 17th Place [29.58%] Summer 2005 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 12th Place [32.22% ] As good as Snake looked off of that Soma thrashing, the obliteration that Squall laid down on Tidus simply outdid it on almost every level. Square SFF is typically not the most severe SFF out there, and Squall has never been given enough credit in these things, but the "...whatever" he made out of Tidus was just shy of what Link 2k5 was expected to do. So, uh, Squall for 2k6 Champ? Not quite... Notable Releases Since Last Appearance Solid Snake: Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence (PS2), Super Smash Brothers Brawl Trailer (Internet) Squall Leonhart: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2) Upcoming Releases Solid Snake: Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3), Super Smash Brothers Brawl (WII) Squall Leonhart: N/A Hey, look, it's the male bracket! My Lord and Savior, I worship the ground that you are predicted upon. Yes, it's back, and with it, characters of actual strength and matches that will garner actual debate. The first of which is this match...one that has had a LOT of discussion recently, though virtually no one has actually taken in their brackets. The reason? This: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955 This is actually a REMATCH of a match we saw way back in 2002, and a match that Squall got his ass flat out dominated in. For all the laughing about 2002 Stats that this board has done, they certainly do shy away from previous results when push come to shove. Come on, who here really takes Ryu over Dante in a rematch? Honestly? But since then, Squall has had plenty of reason to catch up. Kingdom Hearts was absolutely huge for him, and he went from being a 15-seeded no hoper to 2003's breakout star. For three years now he has made it to the Sweet Sixteen and nearly made the Elite Eight last year. You'd think that, bias aside, Squall > Snake would be a perfectly logical upset pick for me. After all, I have Cloud > Link thanks mostly to Kingdom Hearts 2 (AC will help, but it's not the deal breaker), and Link 2k5 beats Cloud 2k5 with almost exactly as much as Snake 2k5 beats Squall 2k5. The difference is that there seems to be a really Fishy relationship between Metal Gear and Final Fantasy...FFVII, at the least. FFVII made MGS look weaker than MGS2, Sephiroth made Liquid look like he'd lose to Frog in a blowout, Tifa made The Boss look weaker than Terra...if indeed there is a 'hierarchy' that MGS fits into with FF games, it has been postulated that Snake/Squall was 'technically' SFF. And while Squall has had KH since then, there's also this match: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2116 Which had Snake overperforming on Sora (y'know, the lead of KH). While there was a big picture advantage there, something was definitely fishy in those results. If MGS has the edge on both FF8 and KH, it makes Squall's prospects look that much bleaker. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 10:00:17 PM | message detail | #222 |
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Ultimately, I don't think Snake will falter here because of three reasons. 1.) He's the 1 seed, the massive bracket favorite, if it comes down to the wire he will have better ralliers and cheaters 2.) This wouldn't exactly be the first time that we've seen someone look like they could take elite competition after annihilating Tidus 3.) Because he's beating Mega Man, sillies Karma Hunter's Vote: VOTE SNAKE Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Solid Snake with 57.49%. Going to lose Crew Points constantly for overestimating Snake, don't really care, etc... Truthfully...do I take Squall over all non-Nobles this year? Yeah, probably. Then why am I making this kind of a prediction? Hoping for an overperformance? Actually, I'm hoping for just the opposite. Upset Potential: 0% UPSET ALERT UPSET ALERT UPSET ALERT Am I so naive as to believe that Cloud's KH boost would be nullified if he went up against Snake? Not a chance of that happening -- Snake would be doing his best just to avoid being overperformed on, and if he pulled that off there's no way he'd be stealing that KH vibe (and thus be overperforming himself). Neither FF8 nor KH is enough to slay the beast alone, but combined they just may have what it takes. The Devil Division has almost certainly proven itself to be legit. Vincent and Dante's impressive wins make Squall look that much better, and with KH2 he only has reason to look more impressive. The picture is in his favor (duh it's Snake), if weekends favor Square characters it favors him...if he truly is more popular here, he can win this even in the face of all of Snake's advantages, and break the Noble Nine against the very character he lost in the first round to in his inaugural match. Uh...so why do I have the upset potential at 0%? Because SNAKE IS INVINCIBLE you ****ers. Upset Prediction: Solid Snake with 13.37% If you're gonna go out, do it in style! Guest’s Analysis - LeonhartForever Okay, the time for the ultimate internal struggle between the Squallid and the Snake has finally arrived. Hit the music! *“Blue Fields” begins playing in the background* There we go…Wait, that’s not right! You know which track I’m talking about! “I’m stiiiiiilllll in a dream, SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE EAAAAAAATERRRRRRRRR!!!!” That’s…a little better, as it does conjure up memories of Snake’s most dangerous foe, The Ladder. But then again, that’s a different Snake. Come on now, time to get serious! *“Liberi Fatali” plays on continuous loop* Now that is what I’m looking for, the perfect music to set the stage for this climactic showdown. Friends, this is the last chance to break through that pretentious group of supposedly unbeatables known as the Noble Nine. Trust me on this. Vincent is not beating Sonic, and neither Bowser nor Auron is going to beat Crono. Come next year, the aristocracy of the Character Battle will rise to an even higher level of affluence, out of reach from the rest of the world for the foreseeable future. In other words, this isn’t just your average, run-of-the-mill contest poll. It’s a revolution for justice! And yet, despite the vast importance and potential repercussions of this match, it is being overlooked by nearly all of Board 8. Not a single person took the upset in the Board Odds Project, and few people considered it to a serious extent. Why, you ask? It’s very simple. As a teacher, you always want to move from the known to the unknown, and so, my students, we will begin with the most basic element of this match: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 10:00:40 PM | message detail | #223 |
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As you can see here, Solid Snake easily disposed of Squall Leonhart in
their only previous meeting. This is the primary reason why this match
goes so undebated by the majority of Board 8. If this was the only
piece of evidence you had to go by, it’s only natural that you would
choose Snake to win this match, hands down. But what makes this match
different from their first meeting? ONLY EVERYTHING! First of all, that match was in 2002. Take a look at everything else in this contest relative to the 2002 Extrapolated Rankings. Very little of it holds up compared to now. So many characters who looked decent in that contest would be fodder now, and some fodder would be even worse now than before. You just cannot take it into heavy consideration when predicting the outcome of this match. Even so, that’s still a lot of ground for Squall to make up. Why should we think he can do it? Well, he showed us in 2003 that he possessed a good deal of strength, defeating Jill Valentine and Luigi with absolute ease before getting 41.80% on Samus Aran in defeat. That’s a good 7.23% better than he had done on Solid Snake in 2002. So this means that Snake would beat Samus handily, right? As true as that SHOULD be, that is not the case in this situation. He hasn’t been able to defeat any Noble Nine characters, much less Samus Aran, who is in the upper half of the group. It means that we’re dealing with a significantly improved Squall. What caused this drastic rise in strength in the span of one year? There are a couple of possibilities, but the most widespread explanation is simply this: Kingdom Hearts. Not only was it Squall’s first appearance in four years, it was on a new console generation to a potentially different demographic. The fact that he had the largest role of the Final Fantasy cameos only helps, and even some who hated Squall in Final Fantasy VIII admit that he’s actually likeable in Kingdom Hearts. Perhaps he changed a few minds with that one. However, another possibility that could rear its ugly head in this match and potentially cost Squall his chance at the upset is something that I was one of the first around these parts to propose. I believe that Solid Snake may have actually overperformed against Squall in 2002, meaning he was not as weak (relatively anyway) as he appeared to be. This is what could spell doom for Squall if this is the case, regardless of how close to Snake he is indirectly. But why would you believe such a thing would even happen, other than just being a freaky, random overperformance? Well, we have enough examples outside of this to believe that Final Fantasy/Metal Gear “SFF” occurs. In the Games Contest, there was Final Fantasy VII vs. Metal Gear Solid, in which the original MGS looked noticeably weaker than Metal Gear Solid 2 (which should have immediately raised eyebrows everywhere, but for some reason did not). Then, in the Villains Contest, there was Sephiroth/Liquid Snake, in which Liquid winds up well below Frog 2005, no matter how you look at it. Considering the big leap in strength that Solid Snake made in 2005, that should not be so. And while this is not necessarily FF/MGS, it’s still worth mentioning, Solid Snake vs. Sora isn’t a match you can blame solely on the stacked picture. Aeris vs. Sora in 2003 already told us that Final Fantasy has a heavy overlap with Kingdom Hearts (as if we needed match to tell us that), so it stands to reason that the same thing could have happened here. Maybe they were all just big coincidences. Who knows? But you can’t rule out the possibility. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 10:01:23 PM | message detail | #224 |
| Now what makes me think that it won’t happen this
time? In my opinion, SFF isn’t very severe (or even present at all)
when the two characters are very close in strength, as I believe these
two are. Mario/Samus last year was the exception, not the rule, folks.
Most of the time, you end up with something like Yoshi/Luigi with no
noticeable SFF. Of course, I’m not saying that Solid Snake cannot do it
again here. I’ll put it this way. If he does overperform again, I won’t
be shocked, but I’m not expecting it. Okay, now that we’ve established the idea that Squall is going to do better against Solid Snake than he did in 2002, the question then becomes: How much better? Glad you asked! I’m about to tell you! Let’s go back to 2003 for a moment, shall we? While Squall’s path ended when he lost to Samus, that isn’t the end of his story. After that match, Samus went on to lose to Link in a performance that most didn’t think anything of at the time. It went about as expected without much appearance of SFF…or so it seems! Keep in mind that Samus had Metroid Prime between SC2K2 and SC2K3, her first game in several years. For all intents and purposes, one would expect a rather large increase, right? Well, if Link didn’t SFF her, then it appears that she did not have one. Enter SC2K4, where Samus Aran is destroying everything in her path en route to an extremely respectable 40.99% on Cloud Strife. Wait, this is the same Cloud who beat Link in 2003, right? Then why did Samus do 3% better against him? It seems rather obvious that she was stronger, but why would it take an extra year after Metroid Prime for such a boost to take effect? That doesn’t make any sense! Is it entirely possible that Samus was this strong in 2003? I say yes! I’ll allow for another modest increase in 2004, but for the most part, there is little noticeable difference between Samus 2003 and Samus 2004. This becomes more interesting when you see that Sonic the Hedgehog only managed 42.49% on Samus in 2004, .69% better than Squall had done the year before. Based on Sonic 2004, this would actually put Squall very close to his 2005 value. Coincidence? Perhaps, but then again…Perhaps not! As I said before, I will allow for a second Samus increase in 2004, but I wouldn’t give her too much. Am I saying that Squall could have beaten Sonic in 2004? Maybe not necessarily win, but I think he would have done very respectably. Unfortunately, concerning Squall himself in 2004, we can draw very little conclusive data, due to him getting horribly SFF’d by Cloud Strife. I’ll admit that putting Squall at his 2005 value in 2004 creates something strange with Bomberman, but other than that, I don’t really see a problem. Maybe it was an anomaly. Who knows? Either way, it doesn’t really matter now. Everything else looks fine. It makes the huge boosts Kirby and Luigi got in 2005 look a little less extreme and thus, more reasonable. SC2K5 was when Squall finally proved that he was a legitimate near-elite contender (or at least it should have been). He proved that he actually was capable of destroying fodder by nearly tripling Geno, and then he beat Snake’s annual whipping boy, Knuckles the Echidna, after he pulled the largest upset in contest history over Magus. However, he narrowly lost to Final Fantasy VII fan favorite Vincent in one of the closest matches of the contest, just barely missing a berth in the Elite Eight. That’s another thing that makes me think that Snake won’t overperform. If any two RPG games would have heavy fanbase overlap, it’d be Final Fantasy VII and Final Fantasy VIII. We are well aware of FFVII’s power around here, and yet Vincent was unable to pull any sort of SFF on Squall. In any event, I digress. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 10:02:30 PM | message detail | #225 |
| Once again, one thing that may work against Squall
Leonhart’s upset chances is the fact that he was only able to get
53.80% against Knuckles the Echidna, and Solid Snake, even in 2004 when
he didn’t even look like he belonged in the Noble Nine anymore, managed
to get 59.54% on him. In 2005, Sonic the Hedgehog looked much stronger
than he ever had before, so it stands to reason that Knuckles could
have gotten a hefty boost of his own. Could he have broken 45% on Snake
last year? Maybe (Oh, watching the entire board calling for Snake’s
head after that would have been priceless!). However, I have considered
the possibility that Knuckles is overrated (Note: This does not mean
that I think the Devil Division is overrated, just Knuckles himself,
for whatever the reason. Call it the Link/Magus or Frog/Snake Syndrome,
if you wish), and in that case, it wouldn’t really matter. Either way,
I doubt it would be to a great extent, because I couldn’t fathom Snake
getting 60% on Magus. He may be overrated, but he’s still strong. Now let’s look at Vincent. After defeating Squall, he did very well for himself, grabbing nearly 45% against Crono. However, many thought he did a little too well and called for the Devil Division being overrated. There’s not much indication of that being the case in 2006 so far, so I believe it was a legitimate performance, as I thought all along. Vincent getting 52.59% on Ganondorf should be enough proof of that. Sure, call Dirge of Cerberus boost all you want, but the point remains that he was at least nearly as strong as he looked in 2005. Besides, Squall has plenty of reason of his own to boost with the release of Kingdom Hearts II in the last six months. I personally think it would be enough to boost him even over Vincent now, especially looking at what we’ve seen from Kingdom Hearts II characters so far. Of course, we can’t tell anything from Squall based on his first round performance since it was an SFF slaughter of Tidus. Plus, if people sincerely believe that Vincent is a legitimate threat to beat Sonic the Hedgehog, you have to think that Squall has the potential to beat Solid Snake since he is not quite as strong as the Blue Blur. I’m not going to disregard Snake’s potential to be stronger this year though, since he has been the focus of the two biggest gaming announcements of the year. Regardless of what happens in this match, I expect it to be a good one. Just remember! If Squall beats Snake, it doesn’t stop here! Mega Man, you’re next! Leonhart’s Prediction: Squall Leonhart with 50.44% Crew Consensus: Everyone except Leon with his crazy wall has Snake winning this match. Ranges from close, (lower 50's) to...not close (upper 50s) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 10:03:19 PM | message detail | #226 |
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Holy zombie jesus Leon. I was half expecting that wall to randomly end with Snake winning. And Moltar, when are you having signups for round 3 guest analyses? TuRtLe ~~~ 43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 10:04:08 PM | message detail | #227 |
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I...don't have the highest Snake prediction? DAMN IT LOPEN --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 10:04:24 PM | message detail | #228 |
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I guess I could put up the female half for Round 3 tommorrow. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Chun-Li vs. Lara - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (42/46) |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 10:06:26 PM | message detail | #229 |
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This wouldn't exactly be the first time that we've seen someone look
like they could take elite competition after annihilating Tidus ...Still beat Snake that year though. Hit or miss Lopen MISSES again! --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/21/2006 10:07:05 PM | message detail | #230 |
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DpOblivion's Quick Analysis: All this Squall over Snake talk is really making me sick.......but then again, I completely see where it's coming from. Squall is the main character from FF8, and had a relatively prominent cameo in Kingdom Hearts. That is a dangerous description for an opponent to see. But Solid Snake is no ordinary opponent. Metal Gear Solid is highly popular, and he has a lot of hype right now with MGS4 and SSBB. If this match were to happen next year, there is no doubt Snake would win, but right now, hype might not mean much. Solid Snake is a Noble Nine character, and you just aren't given that title without merit. But on the NN heirarchy, he is 8th or 9th. And Squall is one of the Top 3 outside of the NN, so you can't count him out just because he's not in the NN. But being in the NN is good enough for me to say that Snake wins. And this was certainly no quick analysis....these have become increasingly longer, I need to shut up quicker, the whole point of the "Quick Analysis" was that I was just gonna get to the point and shut up quick. My vote: Solid Snake My bracket: Solid Snake My prediction: Solid Snake with 52.55% --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 10:08:21 PM | message detail | #231 |
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All this Squall over Snake talk is really making me sick Then I can only imagine what my wall of text did to you! --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 10:09:16 PM | message detail | #232 |
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...Still beat Snake that year though. I believe you have evaded my point quite adeptly, sir! I commend thee. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 10:09:49 PM | message detail | #233 |
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From Master Moltar Posted 10/21/2006 11:04:24 PM I guess I could put up the female half for Round 3 tommorrow. Can you do it now, since I'm working tomorrow and have a linear algebra midterm on Monday, and I've missed every other signup so far >_> TuRtLe ~~~ 43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/21/2006 10:21:35 PM | message detail | #234 |
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Your wall of text just made my jaw drop when I saw it. --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| Mumei | Posted 10/21/2006 10:31:32 PM | message detail | #235 |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=743 This would be for Karma Hunter. --- "I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived"- Sensei, "Kokoro" |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 10:32:16 PM | message detail | #236 |
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Leonhart delivers. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 10:32:21 PM | message detail | #237 |
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That might be the best poll I've ever seen. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 10:32:54 PM | message detail | #238 |
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And I always deliver on time. I'm like the post office, only efficient! --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/21/2006 10:33:14 PM | message detail | #239 |
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Holy ****! That analysis took 3 whole posts Leon! Took so long to read! --- By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/21/2006 10:47:23 PM | message detail | #240 |
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If this pace keeps up, I'm gonna hit my Chun-Li prediction dead on....come on! --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/21/2006 10:53:50 PM | message detail | #241 |
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Damn it, I figured we were due for an update where the percentage didn't increase.... --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| Ed Bellis | Posted 10/21/2006 10:54:35 PM | message detail | #242 |
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*looks at Karma's prediction* WOO UNFINISHED FFP LET'S DO THIS --- This was Ed Bellis. |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/21/2006 11:00:57 PM | message detail | #243 |
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DAMN IT!! 55.54%, one-hundreth of a percentage off! --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS |
| transience | Posted 10/22/2006 12:04:41 AM | message detail | #244 |
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Hit or miss Lopen MISSES again! absolutely! --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:06:27 AM | message detail | #245 |
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On the one hand, Snake's terrible day vote should help me snag this one with ease. On the other...GO LOPEN. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/22/2006 12:29:28 AM | message detail | #246 |
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Oh man, I feel bad for you DP. So damn close to the percentage nailing. --- CB06 - Score: 44/48 Rank: Tied - 696th Yesterday's Pick: Chun Li Today's Pick: Snake Tomorrow's Pick: Yoshi Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero, MC |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 10/22/2006 1:49:35 AM | message detail | #247 |
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Psh, Snake will be down past Lopen's percentage before his infamous day vote hits. He misses again! I wasn't wrong to say so! --- Deluded boy. Nobility is forever. The Snake has triumped over the Squallid. |
| Lugia2 | Posted 10/22/2006 5:34:50 AM | message detail | #248 |
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Great. We're now back to nigh-impossible upset picks. Thanks Guests! You're going to make us look bad! At least we can rely on HM to pick Vincent>Sonic, only to prove that Gannon is still better. --- VIVA LA REVOLU-er, Wii!! Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/22/2006 6:34:39 AM | message detail | #249 |
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Great. We're now back to nigh-impossible upset picks. Thanks Guests! You're going to make us look bad! At least we can rely on HM to pick Vincent>Sonic, only to prove that Gannon is still better. Actually, I'm doing the Guest writeup for Vincent vs. Sonic, so we can probably expect the guests to continue their tradition of ridiculous upset picks. --- 99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig |
| ShatteredElysium | Posted 10/22/2006 6:44:11 AM | message detail | #250 |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
