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Spring 2006 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

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Master Moltar | Posted 7/13/2006 4:04:25 PM | message detail | #051
Leon’s Analysis

Diablo really got a raw deal in this contest. It could’ve done some damage if it had received some better seeding, but alas, that is not the case. Now it basically becomes the first step on the road to Final Fantasy’s championship. The series should at least do respectably here for what you would normally expect out of an 8 seed, but as far as being competitive, forget it. No knock on Diablo, since not many series could be competitive against Final Fantasy.

In these contests, we’ve only seen Diablo the character. In the Villains Contest, he took advantage of the weak competition to make a run to the Final Four before getting destroyed by Ganondorf. He returned in the Summer Contest, where he had a lackluster win over Kratos Aurion before getting ripped apart even harder by Sonic the Hedgehog. However, this is Blizzard we’re dealing with, and the Diablo series has its fair share of rabid followers. While it may not be as popular as StarCraft (though who knows, Diablo II placed 20th on the Top 100 List, only two spots below StarCraft), it’ll be a strong series, which once again upsets me that it got such poor seeding and a bad draw.

Of course, Final Fantasy needs no introduction. GameFAQs was basically founded upon Final Fantasy VII, and it’s still proven to be the site’s most popular game even to this day. On a couple of instances, it has been shown that perhaps one-fourth of the site considers it to be their favorite game ever, a ridiculous statistic, especially when you realize that 75% of the site has played it. That’s essentially saying that one out of every three people on GameFAQs who have played Final Fantasy VII think it’s the best game ever. Sure, there are some minor issues with such a statistic, but the point of its massive popularity cannot be questioned even so.

Final Fantasy VII is already the site’s most popular game, so how much stronger can it get when you add the rest of the series on top of it? Well, that’s what we’re about to find out. This should probably be the strongest entry we have ever seen (and probably ever will see) in any contest. The Final Fantasy name carries power. On the GameFAQs Top 100 List, we have FIVE games from the series in the top 20 (counting Final Fantasy Tactics), seven in the top 50, and nine overall (counting Final Fantasy Tactics Advance). Basically, every major release since the series moved over to the Playstation made the list, except for Final Fantasy X-2, Final Fantasy XI, and Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles (I’m not including the ports and re-releases of the older games, though Final Fantasy I and Final Fantasy IV both made the list as well). Basically, the series is really popular, as if you needed me to tell you that. This match is essentially going to be trying to show up the Legend of Zelda’s first round performance. It’ll be ugly.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Final Fantasy with 76.90%



Lopen’s Analysis

What a waste… what a waste. My heart's just not in this match. Diablo's not a fodder series, it's not! But it's getting fed to Final Fantasy, and Final Fantasy's not a picky eater, it has an appetite for fodder and non fodder alike. Final Fantasy consumes all series, big and small. It is tyrannous, and evil… all but a lock to win the contest. Diablo will do better than we expect considering the opponent, Diablo's fairly popular here. But man, it's facing Final Fantasy! This is totally unfair! That's all I have to say!

Lopen's Prediction: Final Fantasy with 71.66%
Master Moltar | Posted 7/13/2006 4:05:18 PM | message detail | #052
HM’s Analysis

Final Fantasy – AKA “The Champion” – begins its road the championship with an easy match against Diablo. It would seem that Blizzard entries can’t seem to get any luck this year because both of them are up against considerably stronger series. That’s right, Blizzard Burned People, there is no sense in bringing up your silly rallies or united community when you’re up against a beast like Final Fantasy.

This match should be an absolute breeze for the series holding GameFAQs’ favorite game. Diablo is certainly a strong series that deserved better than an 8 seed, but it still won’t stop it from getting absolutely pummeled in this match-up. A doubling in this match is guaranteed, but a tripling won’t quite happen. Even with Final Fantasy’s power, Diablo is still not something that will get completely wasted like that.

So yeah, this match is just a stepping stone for Final Fantasy, as steamrolls the division and the entire contest. But when you combine Final Fantasy VII, Final Fantasy VI, Final Fantasy X, and Final Fantasy VIII all together – along with others – what do you expect? Heh.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket Says : Final Fantasy will win.

Aitch Emm’s Prediction : Final Fantasy 70% -- Diablo 30%

Aitch Emm’s Vote : Final Fantasy.



Yoblazer’s Analysis

And here we have it: the overwhelming tournament favorite is finally set to take center stage. This is Final Fantasy's first opportunity to prove that it deserves its kingly status, and unlike the other two members of the Big Three, it's actually up against a legitimate series. Will the 1-seed's opening performance rival that of Zelda and Mario's blistering starts, or can Diablo cause some people to second guess the all-but-guaranteed Final Fantasy contest win?

My money is on Final Fantasy to impress. As we have already seen, voters are favoring the older, more established series, and on GameFAQs, it's hard to find anything more established than Square's premier RPG series. Final Fantasy has all sorts of powerful weapons at its disposal. Most importantly, of course, is the GameFAQs trump card: Final Fantasy VII. This influential RPG has been our most popular game for nine years, and fans always vote for it in droves. Also, this will mark the first time that Final Fantasy VIII and IX, Square's other two million-sellers for the original Playstation, will be allowed some sort of non-character contest representation. In addition, Final Fantasy has FFVI and FFX. These are two of the most popular games from their respective generations, and they should do a great job of garnering votes from both the old school and newer fans. As if that weren't enough, there are tons of other Final Fantasy games, from the old to the new, from the console realm to the handheld realm, and all of them will be bringing additional power for the mother series to draw from.

Let's not make the mistake of assuming Diablo is fodder; it almost certainly is not. Diablo 2 has a massive Internet fanbase, and Diablo himself has done pretty well in his contest appearances. Also, I'm writing this a few hours after GTA/Warcraft, so we just saw a Blizzard series surprise the hell out of most of us. That shows me that Diablo has, if nothing more, the definite potential to win a match in this contest. Sadly, that potential will not be realized.

Final Fantasy
+ Strongest game on this site
+ Several other very popular games
+ Spans several consoles and eras
+ It's the backbone of GameFAQs
+ Credibility up the wazoo
- Won't blow out fodder as effectively as Zelda or Mario, but that's hardly a big deal

Diablo
+ Solid Internet fanbase
+ Blizzard!!!!!
+ Diablo the character has a decent contest history
- None of that matters

My prediction: Final Fantasy def. Diablo (79-21)
Master Moltar | Posted 7/13/2006 4:06:09 PM | message detail | #053
HaRRich’s Analysis

Predicted winner: Final Fantasy
Top 100 List comparison:
---FF7 - #1, FF3/6 - #10, FFX - #12, FF8 - #17, FFT - #19, FF9 - #42, FF2/4 - #50, FF - #76, FFTA - #89
---Diablo 2 - #20
Best Game Ever x-stat comparison:
---FF7 - 50% (Best. Game. Ever. champion), FF3/6 - 39.4%, FFX - 36.86%, FF - 32.24%, FFT - 28.69% (was behind FF7/MGS), FFTA - 24.27% (SFF'd by FFX)
---Diablo - N/A (no rep)

Don't even bother telling me I shouldn't add the FFT games to FF's credit, by the way, unless you like acid in your pants.

I'll go ahead and point out that FF is the big favorite of the contest, and we have already seen in two different ways that FF7 is this site's favorite game. Cloud was GameFAQs's favorite character in 2003, the year KH was released, and we've seen both KH2 and FF:AC be released in America this year. #1+#10+#12+#17+#19 > #20 and Starcraft > Diablo 2, according to the Top 100 List. Diablo 2 is almost certainly where most of Diablo's strength will come from, whereas FF can still survive nicely without FF7 (and FF7 easily beats Diablo). Diablo's shown that rallying for Diablo (the character) isn't particularly strong, though it's something to watch out for when it's facing opponents with a common strength...

...the FF series >>>>> M. Bison, however, and thus it is so that Diablo will have no successful under-dog run this contest.

Final Fantasy wins with 70.12%

Diablo
+ Solid Internet fanbase
+ Blizzard!!!!!
+ Diablo the character has a decent contest history
- None of that matters

My prediction: Final Fantasy def. Diablo (79-21)


Comments: We all have Final Fantasy beating Diablo, but interesting that all our percentages land in between 70 and 79%.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/13/2006 4:11:47 PM | message detail | #054
Crap, boxed in.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LoopZoopTheBest | Posted 7/13/2006 4:14:45 PM | message detail | #055
Thank the gods HaRRicH didn't pick 79.12%.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/13/2006 7:37:32 PM | message detail | #056
HaRRicH got a double prediction, AND he plagiarized yoblazer!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LoopZoopTheBest | Posted 7/13/2006 8:55:33 PM | message detail | #057
Wait a minute... HE DID!!!!

HARRICH. EXPLAIN YOURSELF.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
HaRRicH | Posted 7/13/2006 9:11:13 PM | message detail | #058
Diablo
+ Solid Internet fanbase
+ Blizzard!!!!!
+ Diablo the character has a decent contest history
- None of that matters

My prediction: Final Fantasy def. Diablo (79-21)



Just so there's no confusion, that's not a part of my analysis. That said...I like yo's prediction better than mine. Damn me and my refusal to edit my picks each round once the round starts!
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Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/13/2006 9:13:08 PM | message detail | #059
Just so there's no confusion, that's not a part of my analysis

Of course it's easy to admit to plagiarism after you've already been caught!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Master Moltar | Posted 7/13/2006 9:16:21 PM | message detail | #060
Yes, blame HaRRich. Meanwhile, I'll just casually sneak out the backdoor and run!!
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Super Smash Bros. vs. Dragon Quest - Bracket: SSB - Vote: SSB (9/11)
therealmnm | Posted 7/13/2006 9:59:52 PM | message detail | #061
Basically, with Final Fantast most likely winning the contest... Whatever percentage Diablo gets will be its x-stat value. I'm kinda surprised at those 21% predictions for Diablo. You think the gap between Final Fantasy and the rest of the field is THAT large where strong midcard series will be in the 20-22% range?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LoopZoopTheBest | Posted 7/13/2006 11:33:12 PM | message detail | #062
Super Smash Bros. vs. Dragon Quest
+9 Soul
+8 Lopen
+7 mnm (tie - unbelievable)
+7 Moltar (tie - unbelievable)
+5 Ulti
+4 Leon
+3 HM (tie)
+3 yo (tie)
+1 HaRRicH

The Rankings (Through Super Smash Bros./Dragon Quest)
1. Master Moltar (51)
2. XxSoulxX (48)
3. yoblazer33 (42)
4. UltimaterializerX (40)
5. therealmnm (39)
6. HaRRicH (38)
7. Leonhart (36)
8. Lopen (33)
9. Heroic Mario (32)

Looks like Moltar and Soul have separated themselves from the pack a bit.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/13/2006 11:33:53 PM | message detail | #063
You think the gap between Final Fantasy and the rest of the field is THAT large where strong midcard series will be in the 20-22% range?

*looks at the poll*

Yep.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/13/2006 11:36:25 PM | message detail | #064
yoblazer - 79%
Moltar - 77%
Leonhart - 76.90%
Soul - 76.42%
Ulti - 75.24%
Lopen - 71.66%
mnm - 71.05%
HaRRicH - 70.12%
Heroic Mario - 70%


Yeah, go ahead and give this point to yoblazer.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/13/2006 11:37:20 PM | message detail | #065
Ouch. Boxed. Double boxed.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
Tai | Posted 7/13/2006 11:37:56 PM | message detail | #066
tag
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579987 - Wanna report a TOS violation! Go to Snack Attack and we can help!
LoopZoopTheBest | Posted 7/13/2006 11:39:07 PM | message detail | #067
Doubt you'll have to worry about that second box, Soul. Ho-lee...
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
HaRRicH | Posted 7/13/2006 11:39:34 PM | message detail | #068
Man, I'll have gone from first to seventh by the end of this match. Oh, how the mighty have fallen...



...BUT I GET UP AGAIN -- YOU'RE NEVER GONNA KEEP ME DOWN !!
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Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007
therealmnm | Posted 7/13/2006 11:41:31 PM | message detail | #069
O_O at FF. Too bad I'm simply not into RPGs as much as I used to be... Otherwise, I'd be extremely happy right now.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Master Moltar | Posted 7/13/2006 11:43:35 PM | message detail | #070
FF officially won this Contest on it's first update.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Final Fantasy vs. Diablo - Bracket: FF - Vote: FF (10/12)
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 12:10:34 PM | message detail | #071
Super Smash Bros......76.37% 90789
Dragon Quest.............23.63% 28092
TOTAL VOTES.........................118881

81.25% of the brackets predicted this match correctly.

SSB does a bit better than most expected by tripling Dragon Quest. We thought its name might carry a little more weight around here, but I guess not.

Today, Final Fantasy is making Diablo look like Grade-A Fodder. Just wow...

Soul - 3
Moltar - 2
HaRRich - 2
HM - 2
Leon - 1
Ulti - 1
Yoblazer - 0
Mnm - 0

Soul is on fire. Two points in two days.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Final Fantasy vs. Diablo - Bracket: FF - Vote: FF (10/12)
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 3:23:11 PM | message detail | #072
I have a feeling I'm going to get boxed in again for MM/MK.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Lopen | Posted 7/14/2006 3:27:22 PM | message detail | #073
I'll be very surprised if I get boxed in on this next one.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
steve illumina | Posted 7/14/2006 3:30:17 PM | message detail | #074
I am SO joining this crew next contest...my credentials speak for themselves :) Good stuff, keep it up.
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 13-0. Next Win: Mega Man!
Lopen | Posted 7/14/2006 3:32:37 PM | message detail | #075
Well, you don't have to be good at contests to be a Crew member, just look at me... er... I mean... just look at Leonhart!

You're so going down on KH/Castlevania, Steve-o!
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 3:33:37 PM | message detail | #076
Psh, Lopen, you're so bad that Moltar doesn't even acknowledge you on the scoreboard anymore!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 3:44:13 PM | message detail | #077
While I'm thinking about it...Moltar, raise my LoZ/MMX prediction by 5%.

I was going to wait until this match to decide my Mario/Warcraft percentage, but...I still don't know where to lean.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2006 6:55:58 PM | message detail | #078
From: steve illumina
I am SO joining this crew next contest...my credentials speak for themselves :) Good stuff, keep it up.

From: Lopen
Well, you don't have to be good at contests to be a Crew member, just look at me... er... I mean... just look at Leonhart!


Tell me about it I've already beaten the Analysis Crew 3 times (including today). /bragging

Fire Emblem vs. Silent Hill
Kingdom Hearts vs. Harvest Moon
Final Fantasy vs. Diablo
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:22:45 PM | message detail | #079
Ultima Division: Round 1 - Match 14 – (4)Mega Man vs. (5)Mario Kart

Moltar’s Analysis

Mega Man
No, not the X series. This is the Classic Mega Man series. This is the Mega Man that we always see in match pics. There’s a Mega Man 8, and also a bunch of spin-off series and whatnot keeping the Blue Bomber alive.

Mario Kart
The Mario Kart series is one of my favorite Mario spin-off series. Mario Kart DS was recent released, joining the ranks of the other popular Mario Kart games such as 64 and Super Circuit.

MATCH OF ROUND 1 RIGHT HERE FOLKS!!

Alright, when I first saw this match in the bracket, I didn’t think much of it. Mega Man wins, move on to the next match. However, once I saw people confused over this match, I decided to take a second look. I then saw what was so hard about this match, and that I couldn’t just count out the Mario Kart franchise because, well, it’s huge.

Mario Kart has had a presence on pretty much all of Nintendo’s big consoles. They also sell very well and are looked at as fun games. Mario Kart 64, Double Dash, and even the handheld ones like Super Circuit and DS are hits. Behind the SSB series, Mario Kart could be the next strongest Mario spin-off. Also like SSB, most Mario fans like the series. You’d be hard-pressed to find a group of people that like the Mario series, but hate Mario Kart (lol Ulti), so definitely expect it to show some strength.

Then on the other hand, there’s Mega Man. Now, if you ask most people who picked Mega Man why they did, they’ll either respond with something like, “Well, Mega Man does well in the Contests, and he has to draw his strength from somewhere, right?” or “If all the Mega Man fans, X included, vote for the Classic series, it’s sure to win.” There’s something wrong with that though. Since Mega Man X is it’s own entry, would fans be picky enough to vote for the X series, but not the Classic? Or perhaps vote the X series over Mario Kart, but Mario Kart over the Classic series.

However, since the Contest has started, a better argument could be built for Mega Man. We saw with Castlevania that a series that is older and has spanned on several consoles fares better over a new, very popular series. Of course, Mario Kart is no Halo, but the Mega Man series is older and has more games to draw its strength from.

What I’m saying is, Mario Kart is strong, and Mega Man is most likely going to need the backing of the whole Mega Man franchise to win. Will he get all that backing? My bracket says yes, but I’m not sure myself. This is the one match where I’m not confident in either side, but I’m going to stick with my guns and say Mega Man will win in a close one.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mega Man will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mega Man: 51% - Mario Kart: 49%



Ulti’s Analysis

I fear this match for two reasons. One, this "Mario Kart is a side series" BS is nonsense. Mario Kart has a very real chance at winning this thing. But on the other end, a killing by Mega Man may mean that Sonic is due to destroy Smash Brothers. This is one of those "tread lightly" deals, and this match has me torn on Sonic/Smash more than Sonic/Smash itself does. At any rate...

I'm sure other Crew members have eons of text and stats about why they think their pick will win, but I'm taking the much simpler route. The name "Mega Man" is going to encompass every single one of Mega Man's games with voters. No one is going to go "Zomg MMX is in the contest this isn't a part of teh Mega Man lolzorz". Mario Kart is going to be damn strong, but I think Mega Man will be stronger. If Mega Man can avoid potential Nintendo SFF, it should win this. It might even win it easily.

Prediction: MM with 56.25%
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:23:24 PM | message detail | #080
Soul’s Analysis

Here we go. The big round 1 match. Hell, probably the biggest match in the contest.

Mega Man is legendary, no doubt about that. I believe the character has appeared in more games then anyone else. He has a huge repetoire of games at his disposal, along with many different features and weapons. He is also part of the noble nine, which means that the character is very strong. We've never seen any Mega Man game in any contest, and that's mostly because the fanbase can't decide which one to rally for.

Mario Kart is different. It is Mario's third biggest series (after the platformer and SSB). It also has had no representation in the games contest, although many predict that any of the MK games could be pretty strong.

So basically, this looks like a very good match, but Mega Man should win it. Well, I don't believe that. Sure, it is going to be a good match. Maybe even great. But the fact is, I think that Mario Kart is going to kick Mega Man's butt.

Mega Man will definitely be strong. Some people will think that this encompasses every Mega Man game out, so it will garner all those votes. But really, when it comes down to it, MM will only be as strong as it's top games. MM2, MM3, MM4 (I never played a MM game, so just going by popular consensus), MMX2, MMX4 and whatever else is popular. The reason why MK will win though is because almost every MK game is as popular as those MM games, and some are even more popular. MK64 would be able to defeat every MM game there, in my opinion.

Mario Kart also has the added benifit of being more consistent and more current. Yes, I know that MMrandomletter(s) are still coming out every two/three weeks, but they're barely talked about at all. Mega Man's strength comes from the SNES and NES, and perhaps the PS. Mario Kart could syphon a lot of those SNES votes because of the SNES MK game. It also has very popular games on N64, Gamecube and the DS.

I could go into game sales and what not, but there is no need. Mario Kart is still being talked about to this day. It's still very popular amongst voters, and therefore that's why I believe it's going to win.

My prediction: Mario Kart wins with 50.57% of the vote.



Leon’s Analysis

Here it is, perhaps the most debated and split match of the entire contest. Upon my first glance at the bracket, Mega Man seemed like the obvious choice, but after having some time to think about it, this one became deceptively tricky.

Some people were quick to dismiss Mario Kart because it was just a “side series,” but it’s just as much of a side series as Super Smash Brothers is, and I doubt many people on this board would consider taking Mega Man over that series. And perhaps it wasn’t so much that Mario Kart is a side series as it was facing the series of a Noble Niner, the Mega Man Classic. However, there are a few things to consider:

1. The Classic Mega Man series has been defunct for years (since 1997, to be exact) and has since moved on to other series. Perhaps the release of the Mega Man Anniversary Collection has helped to counteract this, but maybe not.

2. While Mega Man has had his fair share of releases—an understatement, to be sure—most of them haven’t had stellar sales numbers. While sales numbers aren’t indicative of strength, as we have well established in the past, this is something to consider when compared to the massive success EVERY Mario Kart has enjoyed.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:23:49 PM | message detail | #081
3. No Mega Man game appeared in the Games Contest and no Mega Man game appeared on the GameFAQs Top 100 List. This is a tentative point, but at least something worth mentioning. The fanbase split could account for the absence in each case, as well as no Mega Man game on the drop-down list for the Top 100 List. I really wonder why there wasn’t at least ONE on the list. That doesn’t make any sense.

4. There is the possibility that Mega Man Classic isn’t even the favorite variation of the series. There is a semi-recent poll (compared to OTHER favorites polls anyway) which shows Mega Man X as the favorite version. This also brings into question one other thing: While Mega Man as a character is of Noble Nine quality, just how much of that is the result of the Classic series? It’s tough to argue that ALL of it comes from that, even if all we ever see is Blue Bomber in match pictures. There is also the slight possibility (which seems to be what a lot of Mega Man supporters are banking on) that the voters will pool together every series under one label, even if it’s only supposed to be Classic. I think that’s basically what it has to rely on to win this match.

While we have yet to see anything Mario Kart in a contest, it’s really hard to deny that the series will have a measure of strength. The sales numbers speak for themselves. It’s probably the most popular “side series” ever in that regard, to the point where it’s hard just to consider it a side series. Mario Kart 64 was one of the top selling games period for the Nintendo 64. It’s a game that just about everybody can enjoy (well, except for Ulti), even people who aren’t regular gamers. It’s a game you can just pick up and have fun with, no matter who’s playing.

However, the one question I have about Mario Kart is this: While it is a universally liked series, how many have it as a “favorite?” I know I do, but anecdotal evidence isn’t exactly the best to go by. It seems to be more of a casual enjoyment kind of thing, but I don’t really know. I really wanted to be stubborn and stick with my Mega Man pick in my bracket, but the more I’ve thought about it, the more things seem to be in Mario Kart’s favor. I think this match could swing either way, however. It’s not an easy call.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mario Kart with 51.04%




HM’s Analysis

Ah, yes, we finally get to what is arguably the biggest match of the first round. Like many other hotly debated matches, Mega Man/Mario Kart falls under the “one point” deal in that you only have to worry about losing one point here – the next opponent is the contest winner so this is understandable. Regardless, it does not stop people from bickering and arguing like it were the entire division resting on this match – and it would be much cooler if that were the case (I’m always up for the Blue Bomber winning divisions). Even with all the debate, however, it would seem that most of the board members are siding with Capcom’s number one franchise, at least according to the BOP, which has a 77 – 36 split. As for myself, I’m clearly one who resides in the Mega Man Camp. It’s a familiar camp that I have grown used to over the years, so let’s get to explaining by the Blue Bomber and co. will be blasting Mario Kart right out of the contest.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:24:28 PM | message detail | #082
I think – more than any other franchise – that Mega Man truly benefits from being put under one singular title to vote for. The biggest snub from the Spring 2004 Contest was undoubtedly a Mega Man game; it was downright shocking to see not one Mega Man game present with so many titles that he has under his belt…but that’s just the problem. There are so many Mega Man games and a large number of them are so good that it is hard for people to decide upon a singular game to push into a contest environment. It is quite true that this particular “Mega Man” does not encompass the entire series; rather, it just focuses on the original part of the franchise (Mega Man 1 – 8), not the X series or Battle Network series or the Zero series. However, it is well known that the classic Mega Man series is the second most popular series of the entire group.

Mario Kart … well, what can be said? It perhaps the most successful spin-off series of all-time from any company and any series; all of the games in the series go on to sell over a million copies in America. Mario Kart is easily accessible to a wide range of people and has no restrictions on who can enjoy it. There is no pure simulation (Gran Turismo) nor purposely trying to crash and cause destruction (Burnout); instead, it focuses on the standard “race around the track” with a hint of chaos from the various items like shells, lightning bolts, and so forth. It is certainly not going to be a weak franchise, especially on a site that has such a favor toward Nintendo products, but it still isn’t necessarily going to be a powerhouse …

What truly makes this match hard is that we have no previous data on Mario Kart or Mega Man – character contests not included. There are no polls that are dedicated to either series in such a manner that shows that people prefer one over the other or that one is a clear favorite for this match. Some people believe that Mario Kart is more more now than any Mega Man title, and there is some truth to this. Mega Man as sad as it is, is no longer the gaming powerhouse nor retains the quality that the franchise once had. But, the fact that the series isn’t as good as it used to be shouldn’t stop it from performing like the beast it has always been. I don’t think ‘What have you done for me recently?’ is going to apply here very much. These are both old school franchises that have become so well established that how they are recently should not affect them negatively. After all, this is a match with a series that has most of its roots on the NES.

It remains arguable as to whether or not Mega Man Classic is the strongest of the Mega Man series, but a poll taken not too long shows that Mega Man X is the more preferred series, though MMC is not far behind.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1834

Some people may not agree, but I really don’t think people are necessarily going to be voting with only one series in mind. If someone is voting for “Mega Man X,” they may just include the X games since those will initially pop into their head. But are they going to neglect the rest of the franchise? I don’t think so. I think you are going to have a number of people voting based on their liking of Mega Man as a whole, especially in this match. As of now, we have no indication that CJayC is going to bother clarifying whether or not it’ll have “(Classic)” or “(Original)” beside it. We have seen him do it in that poll, but it isn’t specified in the bracket. If it isn’t that may even further reinforce the idea of Mega Man being voted on by those who like all the games, as opposed to just the original. Even if it is, I can’t imagine people only voting based on the liking of the original games. You have to think that people are going to vote with more games in mind than that. People are not going to ignore “Final Fantasy Tactics” just because it didn’t make it; they’ll likely just vote for it as if it were apart of “Final Fantasy.”
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:24:56 PM | message detail | #083
Furthermore, I think Mega Man does have to get his popularity from somewhere. A case can be made that people would like a character like Sonic based upon his character personality and attitude, but the same case cannot be made for Rock, who is has no stand out personality or attitude that makes him likable apart from his games. He, more than anything else, encompasses the entire series into one. When you see Mega Man performing in the contest, you’re seeing the series at its best, at least I think so. While the original Mega Man may not be that strong, it doesn’t need to be in order to overcome Mario Kart. Mario Kart is undoubtedly popular, but I have my doubts on how much people care for the series to the point of having it as a favorite. We all enjoy Mario Kart, but I have trouble believing that it is held in high regard with people. It’s a fun series and not much else; it’s not exactly “favorite” material.

If asked the question, “Would you take an original Mega Man game over a Mario Kart game?” To that, I would answer “Yes.” I believe Mega Man 2, or Mega Man 3, would be able to contend well with whatever Mario Kart game you want to throw out there. It may not win, but the match should be given just as much attention as this match is being given. Mega Man is a huge favorite amongst gamers; this should really be no surprise. Some might think it’s crazy to think a Mega Man game could match any Mario Kart game, but I have no clue why one would feel that way. Just because a series is large in quantity does not mean it lacks quality or attention. Mega Man was an NES icon right up there with Mario. Both were rulers of the roost back in the day, and both were insanely popular. Initially, only a few people played Mega Man, but word of mouth caught on and you have most of the most popular and classic gaming character/franchises in the game industry today.

Is Mario Kart a weak slouch? No, not at all. This match should be close because Mario Kart does carry plenty of strength with its name. It is a fun little series that remains exceptionally popular to this day, but while we all enjoy Mario Kart games, I have a hard time believing that many people look at it as a “favorite.” I think Mega Man is definitely going to take this one, and I have never thought otherwise. The series is classic, the series has plenty of entries, and it is the source of the Blue Bomber’s popularity. You can expect Mega Man to perform well in this match and bow out respectively to Final Fantasy in the following round.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket Says : Mega Man will win.

Aitch Emm’s Prediction : Mega Man 53% -- Mario Kart 47%

Aitch Emm’s Vote : Mega Man.



Yoblazer’s Analysis

After two big upsets, it's almost difficult to believe that this was easily the most debated match of the contest. Brackets will be broken. Gurus will be eliminated. People will be a-whinin'. All because of one humble little first round match. From what we've seen so far, it is clear that people are favoring the old and established over the youthful and unproven. Most would argue that because of this, things are looking pretty good for Mega Man. I'd agree, but let's delve into this one a little further.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:25:28 PM | message detail | #084
So far, which series have been the most disappointing? Up until this point (about five hours into Sonic/Devil May Cry), I think the answer is clear. Halo. Grand Theft Auto. Devil May Cry. What is the grand consensus as to why they've all really stunk it up? Simply put, it's because they lack credibility and age. They're up-and-comers. They're new, untested, and have not had the time and exposure necessary to really build that emotional connection with the voter. Sure, they're popular now, but were they popular then? GTA wasn't. Halo and Devil May Cry sure weren't. Mario Kart was. I've heard some recent talk that Mario Kart will suffer the same fate as those disappointing series, and I must wonder why. The series began in 1992. It's been around longer than Pokemon and almost as long as Sonic. Pardon the terrible pun, but Mario Kart has gone around the track a few times. Wait... it was a brilliant pun! Analysis over!

My prediction: Mario Kart def. Mega Man (75-25)

Alright, maybe a bit more. To deny the claim that Mario Kart has garnered quite the fanbase over the years is very bold, to say the very least. The series has had a multi-million selling title on every major Nintendo system (console and handheld, mind you) since the Super Nintendo. Do you know how many other series have done that? Mario, Zelda, and nothing else. Nice company. Actually, Zelda doesn't have that million-seller on the DS just yet. Hmm... looks like it's just Mario and Mario Kart. Once again, nice company.

Sales and fanbase potential is all well and good, but how has the series fared on GameFAQs? Unfortunately, Mario Kart has never had any true contest representation. There are no exclusive Mario Kart characters, and none of its games made it into the Spring 2004 bracket. Of course, we can use other pieces of evidence to help us along. Super Mario Kart, the lone Mario Kart game on the Top 100 drop down list, ranked in as GameFAQs' 61st favorite game. Not great, but not bad; at least it made the list, after all. Also, Mario Kart DS had a very impressive showing in the 2005 GOTY polls, edging out God of War and proving to be this site's second favorite game of the year. No other handheld title had ever done so well in our annual polls. To me, that was a central bit of evidence: if a handheld Mario Kart title could beat something as critically acclaimed as God of War, just what could the console games do? It intrigued me, and I decided to take the risk.

I think that's enough talk about Mario Kart, however, because everyone here should know that this match rests with Mega Man's potential. After Pokemon and Kirby, it's apparent that voting trends in this contest are much different than in any character contest, so the whole "People will see Mega Man and vote for it even if they only like the character" argument is pretty much trashed. However, if people perceive Mega Man to be not just the classic NES games, but all of the newer titles, spin-offs, and the legend that they embody, then Mario Kart is in some serious trouble. If people see Mega Man and think "Mega Man X" or "Mega Man Battle Network" or "Mega Man Zero" or hell, "Mega Man Soccer," then Mario Kart is in some serious trouble. However, if people view "Mega Man" as just the classic games, that is, six NES titles and one SNES title, then Mario Kart has some room to breathe. Do I think that that will happen? Honestly, I wouldn't bet on it. For all my debating and account betting, I still think (as I have since the start) Mega Man is the favorite. However, we've already seen the second and third most debated matches of this opening round go to the underdogs. May as well make it three for three. =)
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:26:00 PM | message detail | #085
Mega Man
+ HOLY **** THOUSANDS OF GAMES (potentially)
+ Age
+ Credibility up the wazoo
- No SotN or WoW to anchor it
- His classic games alone may not do the trick

Mario Kart
+ Several high selling, popular (potentially) games
+ Age
+ More credibility than people are giving it credit for
+ Established a genre
- Very little contest/poll history
- Spinoff status just might hurt it
- SSB might have stolen some of its thunder

My prediction: Mario Kart def. Mega Man (53-47)



Mnm’s Analysis

Battle Music: Mega Man 2 Boss Theme

Finally! The match of the first round! Okay, when you first look at this match and see Mega Man vs. Mario Kart, you’d probably think that Mega Man would easily take a Mario side series. Think again. I guess people automatically think that since Mega Man is such a popular character that his game series must also be popular. Nope. I’ll repeat. Games are on a totally different spectrum than characters. Mega Man games are nowhere near being as close to the top games as Mega Man is close to the top characters. That’s one thing that you must think about before you really consider this match. I’ll break down Mega Man and point out a few things that will probably hold it back in this match.

First, there’s the presence of Mega Man X in this contest. There is a split in the Mega Man fanbase, and as polls have shown, Mega Man X is the favorite Mega Man series on this site. Zero’s contest strength is evidence of that. People may assume that fans of the Mega Man X series would also vote for Mega Man. That is definitely not true. Maybe against fodder that nobody cares about, but definitely not against a series as popular as Mario Kart. The Mega Man X series has definitely gathered its own separate fanbase. As I stated before, Mega Man X was the SNES Mega Man game. Sure a couple more classic Mega Man released, but by that time, Mega Man X had already established itself as the alpha male in the Mega Man series. Most fans Mega Man gained since the SNES days are probably X fans.

So with the X series present in the contest, voters most likely will not see Mega Man as an embodiment of the entire series. If Mega Man had its match first, then maybe you might get some people that think that, but with Mega Man X having an early match and already being established as a separate series in this contest, that won’t happen. It’s not like voters vote blindly each and every day. There’s a reason why contest vote totals are always much higher than normal polls. Voters are aware that there is a contest going on, and many follow along what’s happening. They will know that Mega Man is a separate entity in this contest. Ceej will probably make it apparent in the match, maybe labeling it Mega Man (classic), and giving it a match pic with Mega Man, Dr. Wily, and some Robot Masters to let voters know they are voting on the classic series. And when it comes to the classic series, what games are really popular? MM2, MM3, and… what? Sure, the games as a whole make the series pretty popular… but I don’t think that matters when it’s facing Mario Kart.

“But Mario Kart is just a side series!” No, Mario Kart is the granddaddy of Mario side series. Hell, Mario Kart has been around longer than half the series in this contest. It has done plenty to establish itself as a popular brand of gaming over the course of its 14 years. It has sold millions across multiple Nintendo systems. When you look at sales on every system that has Mario Kart, you usually see Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, and then everything else. Yes, Mario Kart games sell more than even Zelda games. Mario Kart: Double Dash would probably be the highest selling game ON the Gamecube had SSBM not gotten such a head start on it. Mario Kart definitely has a very large fanbase to draw from.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:26:59 PM | message detail | #086
But I won’t simply use sales as my argument on why I think Mario Kart takes this. Let’s talk about its popularity. Mario Kart’s general popularity among gamers is uncanny. Anybody can pick it up and have fun with it. Casuals, hardcore gamers, kids, girlfriends… the series appeals to almost everybody. It doesn’t have one single defining game like SSBM that is a huge favorite, but it definitely has widespread popularity. Even then, I still say that Mario Kart 64 would have done some heavy damage in the games contest. Plus, we’ve also seen how popular Mario Kart DS is among gamers on this site. Being a handheld game, runner-up to RE4 for game of the year is actually pretty impressive. I personally think Mario Kart DS reestablished the popularity of the series. Had MKDS not been released, I would have thought harder about this match.

But yeah, I acknowledge that Mega Man is a popular character on this site. But like Kirby, I think his popularity is due to being a face of the video game industry for so long. I don’t think his games are really that popular, especially if you’re talking about only the classic series. And even then, it’s not fair to use the strength of Mega Man the character because there is no one character that defines the Mario Kart series. I also reiterate that being a side series will mean little in this match. Remember, this is a site that had Final Fantasy Tactics nearly take down Metal Gear Solid, and that has SSBM as one of the most popular games on the site overall. Even Super Mario RPG ended up being pretty strong, and I definitely think Mario Kart is more popular over all than SMRPG. I wouldn’t take any Mega Man game over SMRPG.

Bracket: Mario Kart
Vote: Mario Kart
Prediction: Mario Kart with 55%



HaRRich’s Analysis

Predicted winner: Mario Kart
Top 100 List comparison:
---MM - N/A (had no games on the drop-down list)
---SMK - #61
Best Game Ever x-stat comparison:
---MM - N/A (no rep)
---MK - N/A (no rep)

I fear this match. I loathe this match. I host the board where this match was first discussed -- long before the bracket was released. Thanks for checking out the RAP board, CJay. =P

Ah, if only he really did check out the board...but, anyway, yes, this match gives me the heeby-jeebies. What I'm going to do for this match is simply give the pros and cons of picking each series because there's a great case for each. You already know I picked Mario Kart, so, here goes.....

MEGA MAN:
+ Its name could easily be taken as being the entire Mega Man series.
+ Mega Man is a Noble Niner who has made the Final Four three times, everytime with classic MM pictures.
+ Mega Man has to get his strength from somewhere.
- Its picture may make people realize it's just the original games.
- MMX's presence in the bracket may make some voters aware it's not the entire MM series on the line.
- Link has SFF'd Mega Man hard before, and Mario arguably SFF'd Zero.
- We have never seen a Mega Man game in a bracket or list.
- Its age may hinder it. Not just the original series, but the age of the gap between now and when people last cared about new Mega Man games.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/14/2006 7:27:44 PM | message detail | #087
MARIO KART:
+ It's Mario, the king of Nintendo, in his most popular side-series.
+ MK64 is likely a good deal more popular than SMK, and SMK was #61 on the Top 100 List.
+ Every MK game has sold 1,000,000+ copies (I hear).
+ MKDS was the runner-up for GotY last year.
+ One could argue that Mario's side-series is the reason why Yoshi did so well in both of the Mario-polls...
- ...yet Mega Man SFF'd Yoshi last year.
- It's still a side-series; one should be cautious about letting it come too close to SMB's popularity so it doesn't get over-rated.
- A racing series -- even a light-hearted party-kart series like this -- over classic platforming is risky.
- Mario Kart 64 lacked Koopa Troopa, which was perhaps the biggest flaw the N64 ever saw.

Mario Kart wins with 51.12%



Lopen’s Analysis

This is a hotly debated match, but I think Mario Kart is being overhyped. Yes, it is a popular series, but like Sonic, it lacks the truly "big gun" it needs, but I'd say to an even greater extent. Sure, plenty like Mario Kart, but it's just not a favorite. You may think I'm being harsh when I say this, but in a lot of ways I think Mario Kart might be sort of like the Pac-Man of the series contest. Able to do decently well against many, but if against a favorite with a similar old school appeal, it could just totally collapse. And I think it will.

I'm trying to stay away from the character/series comparisons when I can, but I've just gotta here. There was a character battle match in the last contest, Mega Man/Yoshi. You remember that one, right? Mega Man would not take any of Yoshi's crap, Mega Man got equipped with blow the **** out of Yoshi… beam… and doubled Yoshi in votes. Why do I bring this up? Because Yoshi is the perennial favorite of the Mario Kart series. Not really a huge factor in the pro Mega Man argument, but it can't hurt. (a grim omen!)

Mario Kart supporters in this match tend to have the belief that Mega Man will not get votes from voters who like the Mega Man X series. I don't believe this will be the case. It might lose some votes, but I don't think it's going to be all or even most of the Mega Man X fans. Why? A couple of reasons:

1. Many voters don't pay that much attention to the contests. Based on the outcome of the various "got your bracket in yet?" polls, I'd guess somewhere between a third and a half of the website's daily voting pool doesn't vote in every match. There's a variance of who shows up from day to day. Many voters won't even have seen the Mega Man X match, and would almost certainly treat MMX as part of the series if this is the case, it's the natural thing to do.

2. Of the voters that do pay attention, how many are really going to analyze their pick? Instinctively, when you think of the idea of Mega Man, how many of you can honestly say that Zero things about Mega Man X enter your mind? Average voter will not pause and say "whoa whoa, Mega Man X4 was awesome, but I'd better not vote Mega Man because of it! Mega Man X had its chance and that would be wrong!". I think the votes in this contest will largely come down to "favorite game from either series?", because of instinctive voting.

And because Mario Kart does not seem to generally be a favorite among the people, Mega Man will suck the votes away. Mega Man 2, Mega Man 3, Mega Man X, even MM5 and MMX2, X3, and X4 to a lesser extent. They're all big time. If I were guaranteed that all voters would vote only because of the Mega Man series alone, I might struggle with this one a bit, but Mega Man X will have an influence, and it'll push Mega Man over the top here.

Lopen's Prediction: Mega Man with 60.18%



Comments: It's the first match the Crew is split on. Mario Kart wins here 5-4. I smell bragging rights for the winning side!
LoopZoopTheBest | Posted 7/14/2006 7:44:46 PM | message detail | #088
The crew actually favors Mario Kart? Well, I'm ****ed. Nice knowing you guys.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
jonthomson | Posted 7/14/2006 7:48:47 PM | message detail | #089
The crew actually favors Mario Kart? Well, I'm ****ed. Nice knowing you guys.

The crew favoured Halo and GTA lolololol :-)
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
LoopZoopTheBest | Posted 7/14/2006 7:55:08 PM | message detail | #090
Exactly.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 7:59:00 PM | message detail | #091
Boxed in...horribly. I've got about a .25% margin of error. Crap.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/14/2006 9:09:02 PM | message detail | #092
So I have the lowest MK pick? Good.
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
badazzbuddy117 | Posted 7/14/2006 11:44:31 PM | message detail | #093
wow goo lopen
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All hail the "Go Halo" monks! RE 4 rules
Name: Poo MK friend code:352255-222249
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 11:45:06 PM | message detail | #094
Bah, that's what I get for letting the board change my mind...again. Should've stuck with Mega Man.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/15/2006 2:18:52 AM | message detail | #095
Damn, the percentage will go down but nice prediction Lopen.
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 9/11
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/15/2006 2:25:57 AM | message detail | #096
Lopen...vindicated? An unexpected turn of events!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/15/2006 2:27:03 AM | message detail | #097
I should have known Lopen's crazy 60% pick would work out for him! Give that man a point! Hell, make it a Stylish one!
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Commit it to memory.
Lugia2 | Posted 7/15/2006 5:37:16 AM | message detail | #098
I KNEW there'd be SFF- I just wasn't sure which way it would go...

Good job, Lopen!
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VIVA LA REVOLU-er, Wii!!
Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/15/2006 12:01:50 PM | message detail | #099
Final Fantasy.......85.98% 107648
Diablo.....................14.02% 17560
TOTAL VOTES..................125208

97.25% of the brackets predicted this match correctly.

Yeah, that's just plain scary. Diablo isn't even fodder, yet FF makes it look bad. Final Fantasy is going to be a force in this Contest, so anyone who has Zelda winning...bad move.

Today, Mega Man is easily holding back Mario Kart. Does suck seeing MK getting beaten so bad.

Soul - 3
Moltar - 2
HaRRich - 2
HM - 2
Yoblazer - 1
Leon - 1
Ulti - 1
Mnm - 0
Lopen - 0

Yo gets his first point with the highest FF pick.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Mega Man vs. Mario Kart - Bracket: MM - Vote: MK (11/13)
Master Moltar | Posted 7/15/2006 12:04:24 PM | message detail | #100
+9 yoblazer
+8 Moltar
+7 Leonhart
+6 Soul
+5 Ulti
+4 Lopen
+3 mnm
+2 HaRRicH
+1 Heroic Mario

The Rankings (Through Final Fantasy/Diablo)
1. Master Moltar (59)
2. XxSoulxX (54)
3. yoblazer33 (51)
4. UltimaterializerX (45)
5. Leonhart (43)
6. therealmnm (42)
7. HaRRicH (40)
8. Lopen (37)
9. Heroic Mario (33)
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Mega Man vs. Mario Kart - Bracket: MM - Vote: MK (11/13)
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