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Spring 2006 Contest Analysis Crew

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transience | Posted 7/10/2006 9:48:44 PM | message detail | #451
no matter the percentage, Ulti pretty much won today. that analysis took every possible point and smashed it into the ground. good work.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 9:51:30 PM | message detail | #452
But he'll pay for lowballing it! With all of the work he put into proving that Warcraft won't be much, he should've shot higher.
SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/10/2006 11:08:00 PM | message detail | #453
Eh, if you say so.

Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/10/2006 11:13:07 PM | message detail | #454
Oh well. At least I got the point for yesterday's match.
"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Sir Bormun | Posted 7/11/2006 12:35:33 AM | message detail | #455
Uh oh, looks like the Crew might get 0 points'd again.
Need new sig.
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/11/2006 3:02:03 AM | message detail | #456
Super Mario Bros. vs. Madden NFL
+9 Leon
+8 HM
+7 Soul
+6 Ulti
+5 mnm
+4 Moltar
+3 Lopen
+2 yo
+1 HaRRicH

The Rankings (Through Super Mario Bros./Madden NFL)
1. Master Moltar (42)
2. HaRRicH (41)
3. UltimaterializerX (37)
3. yoblazer33 (37)
5. therealmnm (34)
6. Leonhart (33)
7. XxSoulxX (31)
8. Lopen (29)
9. Heroic Mario (28)

Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Lugia2 | Posted 7/11/2006 6:27:43 AM | message detail | #457
WC is ahead by 500 votes.

Woah, you guys had me fooled! There goes the 60%+ predictions...

Props to Soul for at leasting betting that it would be close!
Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 6:29:08 AM | message detail | #458
Crazy 60%+ indeed. I didn't figure it would be quite that high, though I never suspected that GTA would be losing like it is.

"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
HaRRicH | Posted 7/11/2006 9:47:42 AM | message detail | #459
Wow, has SMB/Madden's joke-analysis and over-shooting GTA/WC today ever crushed me on yo's scoring or what? ****in' ouch.
Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 9:51:53 AM | message detail | #460
Hey, I'll be losing more points than you today. From first to last, bah.
SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 7/11/2006 9:56:47 AM | message detail | #461
Meanwhile, I'll be goin' from last
Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
CantFaketheFunk | Posted 7/11/2006 10:00:15 AM | message detail | #462
This topic amuses me.

Jayne [Shadow Syndicate]: Level 60 Troll Mage, Mug'Thol
Level 3X Gnome Warrior, Skullcrusher
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/11/2006 10:18:30 AM | message detail | #463
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 10:20:56 AM | message detail | #464
This topic amuses me.

It'll amuse you even more after GTA's massive day vote surge too!!

But seriously, I didn't see this coming. This match has an insane amount of votes, mostly due to WC rallying, which we did underestimate. Take away those and you get something like 55-45.
Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Grand Theft Auto vs. Warcraft - Bracket: GTA - Vote: GTA (8/9)
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 10:21:46 AM | message detail | #465
Take those away and Aitch Emm gets his point!

"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 10:22:01 AM | message detail | #466
Yes, "rallying..."
SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
metroid composite | Posted 7/11/2006 10:30:17 AM | message detail | #467
If you were a warcraft fan, why would you cheat instead of rally? It's well-known that CJay throws out cheat votes and there are extremely obvious places to rally.

It's GTA that's less obvious--where do you rally if you want to garner more votes for that game?
Cats land on their feet. Toast lands peanut butter side down. A cat with toast strapped to its back will hover above the ground in a state of quantum indecision
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/11/2006 2:34:16 PM | message detail | #468
Either you guys look like a bunch of idiots right now, or WC is doing an insane amount of cheating. Which wouldn't surprise me.
...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 8/9
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/11/2006 2:36:59 PM | message detail | #469
Neither would surprise me.

*drools on topic*
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 3:09:19 PM | message detail | #470
Super Mario Bros...............92.21% 108512
Madden NFL..............................7.79% 9168
TOTAL VOTES..............................117680

96.11% of the brackets predicted this match correctly.

Ouch, just ouch. SMB crushes Madden into the ground with over 92% of the vote! 108K votes for Mario, that's insane. Madden just got owned here.

Today, speaking of things getting owned, Warcraft is...beating GTA? Mass rallying or cheating ftw? We'll find out what's going down by the end of the match, but I wouldn't count GTA out yet. It hasn't lost a close match yet.

Moltar - 2
HaRRich - 2
HM - 2
Leon - 1
Soul - 1
Ulti - 1
Yoblazer - 0
Mnm - 0
Lopen - 0

Leon finally gets a point. Yay him!
Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Grand Theft Auto vs. Warcraft - Bracket: GTA - Vote: GTA (8/9)
Canadian Carnage | Posted 7/11/2006 3:12:53 PM | message detail | #471

Perhaps I should just try to rally the PC gamers out there that do respect console games and own a few, but love PC games more for many a reason.

How hard is it for people to understand that Warcraft has a huge following, even outside of WoW.

"NO CLOUD IS NOT IN THE GAME, GO AWAY" - pictish freak
andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 3:22:50 PM | message detail | #472

But seriously, I didn't see this coming. This match has an insane amount of votes, mostly due to WC rallying, which we did underestimate. Take away those and you get something like 55-45.

There may be an extra 10,000 votes, but to think they are all for WC is just silly.

Remember back when Ceej announced that 65% of Koreans had voted for Starcraft? There isn't a single place anywhere that you can get everyone to all vote the same way. While WC may have helped to rally those extra 10000 votes, thinking that it pulled any higher than 65% of those seems extreme -- although rallying clearly helped WC out, GTA tended to spike at the same times WC did. This suggests that GTA was getting a healthy percentage of the rallied votes.

Mind you, a 6500-3500 split is still a 3000 vote gain for Warcraft. However, if you took that entire mass of votes away (and I think that split is about as extreme in favor of WC as you could realistically expect) GTA would only be winning 51-49.
Lopen | Posted 7/11/2006 3:29:03 PM | message detail | #473
Sure, I underestimated Warcraft, I'll admit it. This won't be the first time I screw up an analysis, and I'm still happy to see it winning here.

However, the hole in my analysis comes from underestimating the Warcraft RTS's popularity here. Not underestimating "mass rally votes" or failing to notice "GTA SUX BECAUSE CJ LOST TO NESS". Warcraft supporters may have been right, but I claim they were right for the wrong reasons until I'm proven wrong.

And I'm not yet counting out GTA. The poll is ~11500 ahead of Castlevania/Halo right now... and I'm having trouble stomaching that these are all rally votes.
Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 3:35:19 PM | message detail | #474
I didn't say they all were, just most.

And I think this is more than just a 65-35 split. Not only did we get the rally votes from Asia in the early hours, but also the heavy ralling at the forums. It's no coincidence that Warcraft's strongest updates where then. I'm thinking more 80-20.

Either way, I'll admit that I underestimated Warcraft's strength here, but without the successful rallying, I'm pretty sure GTA would have a comfortable lead.
Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Grand Theft Auto vs. Warcraft - Bracket: GTA - Vote: GTA (8/9)
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/11/2006 4:22:30 PM | message detail | #475
Well, at least nobody will get the point on Moltar's system, but oh boy, yo's system is going to hurt me.
Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Lugia2 | Posted 7/11/2006 4:29:06 PM | message detail | #476
Either way, I'll admit that I underestimated Warcraft's strength here, but without the successful rallying, I'm pretty sure GTA would have a comfortable lead.

True. But who said there is no rallying in the Squaretendo/Sega/Mega Man (it happened in both Sephiroth matches, but not as much as right now) matches? Since when does Blizzard have an isolated advantage on this?

If you took out ALL the rallying votes, then those vote totals would be constantly below 100k votes- Forget 100k leads!

After all, GTA is STILL doing pretty well...
Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much.
therealmnm | Posted 7/11/2006 4:35:51 PM | message detail | #477
Hey Moltar, I don't see you online so if you see this, up my Sonic percentage by 8%!
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 4:37:48 PM | message detail | #478
Heh, that's quite the increase.

*hopes he doesn't end up getting boxed in*
SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Lopen | Posted 7/11/2006 4:40:30 PM | message detail | #479
I'd imagine he's got Sonic at about 37% right now. Understandable, I'd probably increase it a hair more if I were him.
Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
therealmnm | Posted 7/11/2006 4:40:43 PM | message detail | #480
Well I think I overrated Devil May Cry as a series. Plus Sonic most likely will get that "Nintendo" influence. I already said after seeing Fire Emblem/Silent Hill that I would up all of my Nintendo related matches by at least 5%.
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 4:42:53 PM | message detail | #481
Actually, I was thinking about upping my Final Fantasy prediction, but after this match, I'm not so sure if I should...
SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 5:51:45 PM | message detail | #482
Mushroom Division: Round 1 - Match 11 – (3)Sonic vs. (6)Devil May Cry

Moltar’s Analysis

Oh Sonic, Mario’s true rival from back in the Genesis days. The Blue Hedgehog is still churning out games, with Sonic Riders being the latest, but most consider the Genesis games the best.

Devil May Cry
One of the more recent entries in the Contest is the Devil May Cry series. Dante has become a strong character at GameFAQs even though he’s relatively new. DMC3 is the latest.

It’s the Sonic series. I’m sorry, but that spells DMC’s doom right there. I really don’t even know what to say about this match. Sonic is stronger than Dante, and the Sonic series has been out far longer and spanned much further than Dante and DMC.

I have Sonic winning, and that’s all I need to say. Now go grab some popcorn and prepare for Lopen’s analysis, because it’s bound to be entertaining. =P

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sonic will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sonic: 66% - DMC: 34%

Ulti’s Analysis

I quite literally had to look at the bracket to remember that DMC was even in this contest. The two main characters from these series have fought before, and I doubt DMC3 will prevent DMC from suffering a similar fate as two years ago.

Prediction: Sonic with 57.5%

Soul’s Analysis

You know it's sad that I didn't even notice DMC was in this contest until right now...

Sonic and company begin their contest by taking on a somewhat underseeded Devil May Cry. DMC is indeed strong, but this is Sonic here. Sonic is one of the strongest in the contest, and DMC just can not compare.

In 2004, Sonic defeated Dante with 62% of the vote. Since that time, Sonic has had a new DS game and a few more games announced for all next generation consoles. Since that time, there has been a shift of voting pool, which could potentially help Sonic out. Therefore, I believe that Sonic will be able to get even higher then 62%. And that's that.

My prediction: Sonic wins with 68.42% of the vote.

Yoblazer’s Analysis

My lazy ass has the advantage here, as I'm writing this late (Castlevania is owning Halo as I type this). After a week of matches, we've already seen that people are voting differently. Voters really do seem to be taking the entire series into consideration, as Star Ocean, Soul Calibur, and Halo have already found out, much to their chagrin. This match will almost surely continue that trend.

Individually, Sonic's games may not be that strong, but together, they form a very formidable, respected, and popular series. He has fans from the golden 2D days and fans from the newer Sonic Adventure titles. He's gone multiplatform over the past few years, a move which has helped him mend ties with the Nintendo fans he once fought so feverishly to win over. Sonic is looking to make waves in this contest.

Devil May Cry, on the other hand, seems to have everything working against it. Like a few of our earlier losers, it is a newer series with a small number of games in its arsenal. Worse yet, those games are probably nowhere near as popular as Halo or Kingdom Hearts. Worse yet, its three lone games call only one console him. Worse YET, its second game was completely hated by the fanbase, and its third game sold poorly.

This should be a very routine win for the Blue Blur.

+ Many games on different consoles
+ As a series, is very well known and respected
+ Branched out to more fans over the years
- Questions abound if any of Sonic's individual games are that strong

Devil May Cry
+ Good contest history for Dante
- Newer series
- Small number of games
- All games share the same console

My prediction: Sonic def. Devil May Cry (66-34)
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 5:52:27 PM | message detail | #483
Leon’s Analysis

Ah, it’s the all-or-nothing Lopen special. And, as usual, he’ll end up on the nothing side, if you know what I mean!!!! (Psst, **SPOILERS** that means Devil May Cry is going to lose! **END SPOILERS**)

As far as contest experience goes, Sonic’s series has plenty of it, with a grand total of five characters appearing throughout the Character Contest’s history. Robotnik is the only one who could be considered fodder, barely scraping by a fin and smacking down a hand before getting blown away by a nose. While Tails has not enjoyed a great deal of contest success, he can be considered a low mid-tier. It took him three years to win his first match, but his first round opponents the first two years were Alucard and Auron, certainly no slouches. After finally beating Viewtiful Joe in 2004, he put up a very respectable performance against Dante, of all characters.

For a long time, Knuckles the Echidna had one of the roughest streaks of bad luck we’d seen in a character contest. While he was always able to win his first round match, he was always fed to the lions (or in this case, Snakes) in the second round. For three years, Knux had to deal with a one-and-done in an unwinnable situation against a Noble Niner in the second round. In 2005, while Solid Snake was nowhere near him, his luck didn’t seem to be improving much. This time, he was set up against the supposed Noble Nine breaker in the first round, Magus. However, Knuckles scored one of the biggest upsets ever, exposing the dark wizard for the fraud that he was all along. While he lost to Squall Leonhart in the second round, he’d left his mark on the contest.

Shadow the Hedgehog was a character that people weren’t expecting much out of when he made his debut in 2003, but he surprised a good number of people when he destroyed Wario and then scored an astounding 45% on Mario (which we have since figured out was an overperformance, though it was suspected all along). In 2004, he lost a tight match against Tidus, but the fact that he was able to hang in there with an FF main character is commendable. Despite drawing primarily from one game, Shadow appears to be around the same level of strength as Knuckles. While being a Sonic proxy certainly is a benefit, that cannot be the only reason for his strength. More on that later.

And, of course, there’s Sonic the Hedgehog himself. Few characters have disappointed expectations more than the Blue Blur. Due to his long-standing history, he was expected to be a powerhouse, though he has basically shown himself to be one of the weak links in the Noble Nine, having never beaten another fellow member (though he came close against Samus in 2002 and Mega Man in 2005). However, with the new Sonic game on the horizon, that SHOULD change in the near future.

As far as his games go, all we’ve seen in a contest setting is Sonic the Hedgehog 2, which was utterly destroyed in the second round by Super Mario World. It’s hard to believe that Sonic 2 is as weak as it looked in the Games Contest, but it certainly wouldn’t be all THAT strong overall. There is a big split amongst the Sonic fanbase about what is the best game in the series, which I believe could hurt an individual game’s performance. However, with this being a Series Contest, you’re throwing all of them together under one banner, which will help it significantly, I think. I don’t buy this idea of saying that a series won’t be much stronger than its strongest game, at least not in THIS case. In the event of something like Super Smash Brothers, it makes sense. In the case of the Sonic series, I just don’t see that holding true because there isn’t an overwhelming favorite here.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 6:01:38 PM | message detail | #484
Now let’s talk about Devil May Cry’s contest history. Of course, Dante has appeared in every Summer Contest. I find this to be almost a fitting match because, like Sonic, he has also had a history of underperforming/disappointing in contests. In 2002, he was nearly doubled by Crono in the second round before people had any idea of how powerful the Chrono Trigger hero was. In 2003, he was considered the favorite to beat Ryu (even though the stats showed that the Street Fighter character was expected to win, though this was before they were widespread), but he once again fell short in the second round. In 2004, he finally broke through to the Sweet Sixteen, but not before letting Tails do better than most people were expecting. The third round was not kind to Dante, as he was stuck with an awful picture and was thoroughly owned by Sonic the Hedgehog himself.

2005 was probably one of Dante’s better years, even though he lost in the second round again. He owned Final Fantasy VI’s Terra with over 70%, but was given no chance even to compete with Final Fantasy VII’s Vincent, who had nearly quadrupled Kerrigan. However, Dante brought those supporters back down to earth by scoring 46% exactly and even holding the lead in the early going. His brother Vergil had also appeared in the Villains Contest and beat the crap out of a constipated Ghaleon (see what I did there?) before being fed to eventual contest champion Sephiroth. Though he holds nowhere near the strength of Dante, Vergil was still high fodder.

No Devil May Cry game made it into the Games Contest, so we have no reference point in that regard. We don’t have much to go by as far as polls are concerned except for a Favorite Capcom Series poll, in which DMC didn’t fare too well at all. I know it’s not something that we can look at for sure as an indicator of strength, but there isn’t much else to go by. The original Devil May Cry did decently on the Top 100 Games List, placing two spots below Sonic 2, which doesn’t say too much either way. However, I do feel that the series isn’t all that popular overall. I could honestly see Dante being more popular than his series, really. I don’t foresee this match being close. Sonic will be one of the stronger series in this contest and Devil May Cry…won’t be.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Sonic with 67.03%

HaRRich’s Analysis

Predicted winner: Sonic
Top 100 List comparison:
---Sonic 2 - #38
---DMC - #40
Best Game Ever x-stat comparison:
---Sonic 2 - 20.15% (may have been Something Fishy Factor'd by SMW)
---DMC - N/A (no rep)

Here's a match where the upset potential is so small it's damn near non-existant, yet people will try to force one out of it. I'm looking at you, Lopen. =P

Sonic 2 barely outranks the first DMC, granted, but Sonic also has more games, more popular games, has spanned more generations, has spanned more systems, is iconic, and Sonic got 62% against Dante in 2004. Tails got 42.6% against Dante that year. Dante and Knuckles are practically even last year, too. As far as the Capcom loyalties go, Dante doesn't even have it so much in his favor:

Scoring 7.3% (between Breath of Fire and Marvel vs.) in a Capcom-poll doesn't do you any favors when your series will be facing Sonic's series, and keep in mind the closest match of the year last year was Sonic/Mega Man...then go back and look at the Mega Man series having 31.49%. There's not much at all in DMC's favor, though I will point out one thing I noticed: according to the Villain Contest, Vergil would get 53.89% on Dr. Robotnik. That might be the deciding factor of this match, ya know.....

Sonic wins with 63.12%
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 6:02:24 PM | message detail | #485
HM’s Analysis

Ah, we finally get to see Sonic show his stuff in the contest! I have some pretty high hopes for Sonic in this series contest. I have no doubt that the power the series has will open some eyes around the board. This is another match that is getting some attention, albeit not as much as others, as one that could have a potential upset. But, again, that one just does not compute at all. This is an upset choice only if you’re Lopen -- oh snap! – and we all know about that guy!!

Personally, I think the Sonic series is going to be an absolute monster of a series. I have no doubt it’ll be within the top 5 strongest series once the end of the contest rolls around – this is probably already being disagreed upon with everyone who is reading this right now. You are basically combining all of Sonic’s games into one series and allowing people to vote. I think the fact that the series will likely be labeled as just “Sonic” means huge things for it, as it encompasses every Sonic game ever. The entire Sonic franchise against … Devil May Cry? Yeah, that one is just simple.

We have only had the opportunity to see Devil May Cry represented once in these contests before, and that’s through the character contest with Dante. Dante has always been a pretty strong competitor; he’s never among that group right outside the Noble Nine, but he’ll always hold his own against everyone around him and below him. He even went 54/46 against Ryu, which is pretty impressive. Even then, Sonic is far above the likes of Dante, and only has room to go up.

Sonic has performed well whenever he has made a contest, with the exception of the Games Contest but there is a perfectly logical explanation for that one. Devil May Cry is certainly going to be pretty strong, but Sonic is just clearly the stronger franchise here. Devil May Cry boasts two well liked games and one that people wish to forget; Sonic has tons of great games on a variety of systems in the past 15 years. These games together are going to make a beast of a series and it’ll show in this match.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket Says: Sonic will win

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Sonic 63% -- Devil May Cry 37%

Aitch Emm’s Vote : Devil May Cry.

Mnm’s Analysis

Battle Music: Rhythm & Balance (Sonic Adventure 2)

Sonic is a series that people have a lot of faith in for this contest. I don’t have that same faith, and the Sonic series is probably my second or third favorite series overall. But I’m just not convinced that GameFAQs really cares about Sonic games. We’ve only really been able to gauge Sonic’s popularity as a character on this site. Sure he’s a popular character, but come on. There aren’t really a lot of overly popular video game characters out there. Games are an entirely different animal, as there are plenty of popular games out there. Sonic doesn’t have that same advantage in the games spectrum. Sure his games may have been really popular at a time, but today Sonic games just aren’t held in the same light. The video game industry has grown since the Genesis days, and Sonic games have failed to grow with it. Today, Sonic games aren’t held in the same light as a Metal Gear, Halo, Final Fantasy, GTA, or any of the overly popular series. When a new Sonic game is released, people hardly care nowadays due to many past blunders. The series will mostly have to rely on past popularity to carry it in this contest.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 6:03:16 PM | message detail | #486
Devil May Cry is actually a tough series to judge. We have little data about the popularity of the series on this site outside of Dante’s success in the character contest. Sure Dante entered the character battles as a newbie with surprising strength, but it’s tough to say whether his contest strength is due to the popularity of his series, the popularity of his character design, or a mixture of both. I would say that Devil May Cry is a fairly popular, as it sold over a million copies in America. DMC2 was a dud, bit DMC3 was also fairly received. DMC3 was surprisingly missing from the 2k5 GotY polls, but you would think that the series is more popular than God of War, which ended up being pretty popular on the site.

But in the end, even if Devil May Cry ends up having a bit of strength, it probably won’t be enough to take down the Sonic series, although it probably will be close. The jury is still out on the overall strength of the Sonic series, but it should be able to muster up enough to take down Devil May Cry. Sonic has a lot more to draw from than the PS2 fanbase of Devil May Cry, having fans from the Genesis days, Dreamcast, and the Gamecube games among others. Sonic beat Viewtiful Dante in the character contest 62-38. I think Devil May Cry will do a bit better than that. Still, Sonic’s true test will come in the next round.

Bracket: Sonic
Vote: Sonic
Prediction: Sonic with 64.92%

Lopen’s Analysis

Sonic will easily defeat Devil May Cry, 60%+. Maybe even a doubling! Did you see Sonic vs. Dante? Same deal here, for sure.

No! No! If you've been paying any attention to my ramblings of the last few weeks, you know that I'm calling for Devil May Cry to not only surprise here, but actually upset that dastardly hedgehog! Rabid DMC fanboyism? I can't completely deny the influence of bias in the pick, but I don't risk brackets exclusively on bias. There are reasons here for Sonic's weakness, as well as Devil May Cry's strength, let's go over em. I'll start positive here and promote Devil May Cry a bit.

The main thing we have to read into DMC's popularity on this site is Dante. Dante isn't quite king of the mountain yet in the character contests, but he's pretty close. Definitely on that near elite tier. How many characters originating from the PS2/X-Box/GC era can even try to say this? Master Chief is the only one who even comes close. He's the "face of the X-Box", and no one's going to question that Halo is pretty respectable on this site, even with the anti-votes. Alright, alright, enough putting over Halo… what's my point? Series != Characters, I'll be one of the first to say that. But, at the same time, Dante's popularity being so high with so little time and releases on his side can say only good for the appeal of the series on GameFAQs, the way I see it. He isn't like Sonic, he isn't "just known" because he's an icon of fifteen years. He won't be more liked because he's made appearances in comics or television, because of nostalgia, or because he can slowly whittle away at your defenses with a plethora of "simply decent" releases. Most people who vote Dante have to really enjoy the games in the series, considering it's so new, relatively speaking.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 6:03:43 PM | message detail | #487
Dante aside, we haven't seen much of Devil May Cry in GameFAQs, only two significant things I can think of. First of all, there was a discouraging poll out there, asking for the best Capcom series… I can't say DMC did admirably, getting only ~8%, but the competition was fairly stiff. Mega Man, Street Fighter, Resident Evil. And DMC has had time to gain popularity since that poll. (Dante has boosted from ~25% to ~33% in his years here) Most notably from Devil May Cry 3, which has been released since that poll. DMC3, it's the game many would say "rejuvenated the series". It received great reviews all around, and although the sales weren't on par with the first, they weren't horrible by any means. More recently, post DMC3, DMC had a pretty nice showing on the top 100 list, at #40. (only two below Sonic's best) Devil May Cry doesn't have much data for it on this site, but what it has is looking strong.

But is it strong enough to beat the mighty Sonic?

Yes, I think so. Sonic the Hedgehog has done nicely for himself over GameFAQs, but his games? Not really. In the game contest, Super Mario World makes Sonic the Hedgehog 2, possibly the most popular of the old school Genesis games, look like a joke. You can scream "Same Fanbase Factor" all you like, but there's only so much I'll buy taking place here. Anyway, that same Sonic 2 doesn't do too badly on the top 100 list, getting a #38, but this is still well below the best any of the other noble niners have to offer. (there is Mega Man… but Mega Man had no presence on the drop down list, so we can forgive him.) And also, this may be higher than Sonic 2 may have normally have gotten on such a list. Do I think many fans of Sonic 3 & Knuckles, or perhaps some other Sonic games voted for Sonic 2 simply because it was the only one on the list? You bet I do. Many have admitted to "voting for the one they thought had a chance", and you can't deny results. Only two write ins made it into that thing. What's more is that Sonic is a favorite of the board, and Devil May Cry… well… it really isn't. I don't want to exaggerate the significance of the top 100 list, but all I'm saying is Sonic 2 looked pretty feeble in the Game Contest of yore, and the top 100 list isn't giving me any reason to believe that was a fluke or a huge amount of "SFF".

Now, I think if you take out Sonic 2, you've pretty much won half the battle. Take out the flagship of the old school series, and you pretty much take out the whole of it. Some may prefer S3&K, but some really do prefer Sonic 2 as well. I think it about balances out, and I find myself doubting if any of the old school games are a huge threat as a result. What else does Sonic have… Sonic Adventure 2: Battle? Give me a break. Intuition told me that this wasn't anything to be feared, and the polls I found did not give me a thing to doubt it. SA2:B got like 2% in the game of the year poll when it came out for the Gamecube. Oh, it had decent competition, but I can't take 2% seriously. I just can't. You put any game with any sort of decent fan base here in any poll… even against something ridiculous like a three way with Ocarina of Time and FF7, and I'm sure this game will get more than two percent.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 6:04:18 PM | message detail | #488
To sum it up here, I think Sonic's potential big time game threats are Sonic 2, S3&K, and Sonic Adventure 2: Battle. But we've seen Sonic 2 disappoint, we've seen SA2: B disappoint, and to be honest, I can't see S3&Knux being much more than a souped up Sonic 2 at best. Devil May Cry is easily a possibility to be more popular than Sonic 2 byt the looks of it, although we don't have any official contest data on it. And I'd put my money on Devil May Cry 3 being more popular than it as well. Devil May Cry 2... well, it probably won't help so much. It's not going to hurt like some have said. The Devil May Cry fan base is the most forgiving of all. You know our motto, right? "Devil May Cry 2 never happened." I'd think the slight rift between the 3D and 2D Sonic fans would hurt Sonic more than DMC2 hurts Devil May Cry. A series with a bunch of decent games will be stronger than any of the parts, yes. But I think any strong series needs a "big gun", and I just don't think the Sonic series has one. Nothing that can compete with Ebony and Ivory.

Lopen's Prediction: Devil May Cry with 51.81%

Crew: So yeah, other than Lopen, we all went with Sonic. Sorry about the pause too, connection died.
CantFaketheFunk | Posted 7/11/2006 6:06:47 PM | message detail | #489
Any cheating is minimal.

The ONE topic on the WoW General boards has almost 20k views. Add: any, spamming on the sites themselves, fansites (I put it on the front page of the fansite I work for), realm forums, class forums, the offtopic forum, spamming in-game...

I'm surprised the vote totals aren't higher.
Jayne [Shadow Syndicate]: Level 60 Troll Mage, Mug'Thol
Level 3X Gnome Warrior, Skullcrusher
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 6:08:39 PM | message detail | #490
Heh, mnm upping his prediction makes some of his write-up contradict itself.
SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Lopen | Posted 7/11/2006 6:09:22 PM | message detail | #491
One person can easily view a topic 10+ times if they're paying attention to it. Views wouldn't even be close to votes drawn from it, I wouldn't think.
Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 6:11:53 PM | message detail | #492
Nobody cares about this match anymore, Funk! Come on now! Seriously though...

Sure, Warcraft is going to win. Props to you for that, but I still maintain that you seriously overrated how much rallying the game would get. We'll see for sure when Warcraft faces Mario in the next round, but my preliminary analysis is that I overestimated GTA.
SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
therealmnm | Posted 7/11/2006 6:24:12 PM | message detail | #493
Heh, mnm upping his prediction makes some of his write-up contradict itself.

Didn't get to Moltar in time to take out that line... but issokay! But seriously, after seeing Pokemon and Fire Emblem blow out games that supposedly have PS2 fanbase backing, I'm wary of how much support Devil May Cry will get... especially against something as universal as Sonic. At best for Devil May Cry, we'll see a Castlevania/Halo affair... But Sonic is probably stronger than Castlevania, and DMC is likely weaker than Halo. If DMC actually gets 40% on Sonic, I think Sonic's in serious trouble against SSB...
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 6:25:05 PM | message detail | #494
I would agree with you on that, unless SSB struggles really badly with Dragon Quest.
SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
TheSwizzle | Posted 7/11/2006 6:26:38 PM | message detail | #495
The crew in total's never missed two matches in the same round, or am I forgetting something?
"If at first you don't succeed, find out if the loser gets anything."
Epyo the Great | Posted 7/11/2006 6:29:31 PM | message detail | #496
Why do you guys all always agree with each other?
People who don't finish their sentences
I'm a Castlevania superfan! Ask me anything!
CantFaketheFunk | Posted 7/11/2006 6:41:32 PM | message detail | #497
I never overrated how much rallying it'd get. I said it'd get enough to win. :P

It, of course, has the POTENTIAL to wipe out anything. But it won't.

Jayne [Shadow Syndicate]: Level 60 Troll Mage, Mug'Thol
Level 3X Gnome Warrior, Skullcrusher
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/11/2006 6:49:24 PM | message detail | #498
Why do you guys all always agree with each other?

We don't always agree with each other. Lopen picked Devil May Cry.

And I'm assuming that Mega Man/Mario Kart will be split.
"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
warning_crazy | Posted 7/11/2006 6:50:02 PM | message detail | #499

Nominate the Gray Fox FC2K6!
Current Score: 8/9 Today's Pick: Warcraft
warning_crazy | Posted 7/11/2006 6:50:28 PM | message detail | #500
Nominate the Gray Fox FC2K6!
Current Score: 8/9 Today's Pick: Warcraft