Summer 2005 Contest
Summer 2005 Contest Analysis Crew
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From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/10/2005 9:15:19 PM | Message Detail | #201
No posts for 8 hours?
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 76/84, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: gonf | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:00:07 PM | Message Detail | #202
Where are next match analyses?
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Most wanted game: Battalion Wars
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:22:57 PM | Message Detail | #203
Chaos Division Round 3 - Match 55 – (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (3)Tifa Lockhart
Tifa sez: Sonic’s faster than the speed of sound!

Sonic
Round 1 – vs. Jin (Sonic: 76.15% - Jin: 23.85%)
Round 2 – vs. Diablo (Sonic: 68.55% - Diablo: 31.45%)

Sonic impresses against Diablo, something he failed to do against Jin.

Tifa
Round 1 – vs. Vyse (Tifa: 78.07% - Vyse: 21.93%)
Round 2 – vs. Luigi (Tifa: 53.36% - Luigi: 46.64%)

Luigi was a tougher opponent than we thought for Tifa.

Before the Contest, most people figured Tifa would be a Neo Aeris, and beat Vyse and Luigi easily, then losing to Sonic in a close match. I mean, Aeris pulled up 47% on Sonic. Well, things got real interesting after Round 1.

Sonic was expected to crush Jin. Very, very badly. Instead, he gets 76% of the vote, which is a letdown to most. Tifa then goes and blows the crud out of Vyse. Almost as badly as Cloud did last year. Needless to say, Tifa over Sonic turned into a popular upset pick. Well, that was until Sonic beat the holy crap out of Diablo. Tifa supporters were even more silenced after she only got 53% on Luigi. Yeah, the same Luigi that Squall got 60% on in 2003. Now, since then, Squall has fallen, while Luigi has rose from the Nintendo boost. Even so, the match would still be pretty close if it was re-done today.

So, Tifa is as strong, or a little stronger than Squall. Sonic is a bit stronger than Squall, last I checked. It should be close, and Tifa does have a small chance to pull the upset, but I just don’t see it happening. Her numbers against Luigi showed that she’s not the powerhouse that many wanted, but instead, just….Neo Aeris.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sonic will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sonic: 54% - Tifa: 46%



Ulti’s Analysis

No seriously, after one match, Xst fanboys spearheaded a movement that got everyone thinking that Tifa could win this match. After her very next match in which she completely bombed against Luigi, those same Xst fanboys came up with every adjustment under the sun to try and make themselves not look like such idiots. The whole thing reminded me of all of that Samus > Cloud crap that was floating around after Samus beat down Lara and Sam in 2004. Isn't looking at years-old data to try and predict the future fun? But of course, this happens every time a match swings feces on the stats. People whine about their little religion not falling perfectly in place, and they adjust and cover up and make up factors until all looks well for what they ultimately failed to prove in the first place. It makes for good entertainment when watching it go on, I guess.

The moral of the story is that even though it would be cool to see Tifa win (I'm a huge FF7/Tifa fan, for the record), I highly doubt that she will. Unless you somehow believe that Luigi could come close to beating Sonic, that is.

Prediction: Sonic with 55.54%



Outback’s Analysis

It's the same thing we saw with Vincent here. Impressive first round, meh 2nd round. However, there is a large difference between facing Squall and facing Sonic. Sonic should have no trouble at all showing how much distance there actually is between the two of them, and this match won't be in trouble at all.

Sonic with 56.00%



Tnote’s Analysis

Tifa couldn't even beat Sonic will the cosplay pictures, because she would get Hedgehog Jug Factor'd. If Sonic had those breasts, this match wouldn't even be close. But he only has spikes, so he still has to go to battle against Tifa's polygonal knockers. Luigi increased a good deal, but enough to make Tifa's victory over him translate into the upset? I think not. Sonic/Mega Man should be the best match left, unless Cloud/Link surprises.

Pick: Sonic with 54.83%
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:24:05 PM | Message Detail | #204
Soul’s Analysis

Round 2 Results

Sonic defeated Diablo: 68.55% - 31.45%

Tifa defeated Luigi: 53.36% - 46.64%


As said in my previous analysis, this will be my favorite match of the round. Why? Well, because in this match, we will figure out how strong Sonic actually is. We seen him put up a Crono-like number against Diablo last round, so this match will show if that was a fluke or not.


Tifa, like Vincent, looks to have been overrated after her round 1 blow-out over Vyse. She was expected to give Sonic one of his hardest matches in this contest, but that was all changed after her match with Luigi. She only got 53% against him. To compare, that would put her around Vercetti's level in 2004 (assuming there is no boost from Luigi, which is most likely wrong). To think that Tifa is still strong enough to beat Sonic means that Luigi must be equal to 2004 SFF-adjusted Bowser. But how does that make sense, since Bowser defeated Yoshi who defeated Luigi? Yeah, pretty stange if you ask me.

Like I said earlier, Sonic looks like he has grown very strong so far. Although he didn't break 80% against Jin, he still got more then 68.5% against Diablo. Hell, he was even breaking 69% before diabloii.net linked to GameFAQs. To put that in perspective, based on Ganondorf's result in the Spring, Sonic would get around 45% against Sephiroth (again, assuming everything since 3 months ago stayed constant). That would put him higher then Mario in those stats.

Of course, I've come to realize that the stats from last year mean very little, but it's still interesting to note nonetheless.

So, what we come down to is a very strong Sonic Vs. a disappointing Tifa. Looks like the Noble Nine will stay intact for a few more rounds at least.

My prediction: Sonic wins with 59.50% of the vote. Blue Blur > Blue Bomber.



Vlado’s Analysis

Aah... This is Tifa's first serious challenge in this contest. If she manages to win here, she'll be at least in the Final Four, as I'm sure that whoever can beat Sonic this year can also beat Rockman. I'm pretty sure that everyone but me will go with Sonic here, given Tifa's less-than-stellar performance against Luigi and his impressive win against Diablo. But what does a win over Diablo mean?... He won three matches in the spring, against opponents that are absolute losers and in matches that got much less votes than now. Diablo was just overestimated by the spring contest stats. He surely got many votes against Ganon purely due to the fact that his run was considered amazing, as predictable as it was. So, in short, I don't think Sonic is that much stronger than last year.

Tifa beat Luigi, getting 53.36% of the votes... Many thought that wasn't an impressive result and, to be honest, I was hoping to see her get at least 55% so I can be able to declare that she has a chance against Sonic... Well, even if she didn't get that number, I think that the huge Nintendo increase may have helped Luigi a good deal... Why couldn't he have become almost as strong as Sonic? Sure, he'd still be weaker, but Tifa can still win this. I believe in her and if she wins, this will be the happiest GameFAQs contest matchday ever for me.

Predicted percentage: Tifa Lockheart with 51.06%
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:24:23 PM | Message Detail | #205
Inviso’s Analysis

I’m most likely going to be wrong in this prediction, but I don’t care. If it happens, I will be VERY happy and get to make the topic I’ve been hoping I’d get to make since the Vyse match. Sonic thus far has been very strong, beating Jin Kazama and Diablo in blowouts. But when you think about it, Jin is from Tekken, and fighting games are not strong at Gamefaqs. Street Fighter is the best, and even it is pretty weak. And as for Diablo, he’s pretty weak as well. His best performance was in a contest where aside from 3 characters, pretty much the entire field was fodder. He performed poorly on Kefka, who has been proven to be extremely weak. In fact, most of the results of the villains contest can be thrown out, as Revolver Ocelot lost to Pac Man, who is losing horribly to Yoshi, making Ocelot look like fodder himself. Diablo in this contest performed poorly against a ToS character, which, as evidenced by Lloyd, has next to no power at all in these contests. So really, Sonic hasn’t gotten to prove himself against anyone who actually has any power.

Tifa, thus far has proven to be a mystery herself. In her first match, she faced Vyse and got around 78%, only a few percentage points lower than Cloud got on the pirate. So after this match, Tifa was looking very good to do well in this tournament. Then in round two, she faced Luigi, and people had high expectations of her performance, saying she’d beat him more powerfully than Squall, saying Luigi would win (yeah, like that would ever happen), saying that she needed to win with higher than 65% in order to stand a chance against Sonic. In the end, Tifa only managed to get 53% against Mario’s brother. People immediately lost all faith in Tifa. I still haven’t. Things look bad, but there’s a reasonable explanation. Nintendo, as we know, has definitely increased in strength this contest. Luigi jumped up, doing 15% higher than expected against KOS-MOS. Who’s to say that that 15% wouldn’t be consistent? Tifa, based on Vyse and his relationship to Cloud, would get around 70% on 2004 Luigi. With that extra 15%, Tifa’s win is only 55%. This match is just about accurate. Sonic will probably win, there’s no doubt about that. But Tifa’s still got a 10% chance. And I bet I’ll be one of only two people picking Tifa to win this match, so I’ve got a good chance of winning the point if I’m right.

My Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog
My Vote: Tifa Lockheart
My Prediction: Tifa Lockheart with 50.02%
From: Undeniable | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:27:48 PM | Message Detail | #206
Oh Vlado.
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"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie
From: Vlado | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:44:04 PM | Message Detail | #207
YES! I'm not alone. Alli, you rock.
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*** Support Tifa Lockheart in the Summer Contest 2005 ***
Thanks to everyone who helped her get in!
From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:46:48 PM | Message Detail | #208
Soul: Sonic would not beat Mario
Vlado & Inviso: Won't happen.

Sonic 57%
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:47:29 PM | Message Detail | #209
Seer: Mario got a big boost. Mario would still beat Sonic.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: bokunokuso | Posted: 9/10/2005 10:48:13 PM | Message Detail | #210
I really should tag this.
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Yoshi Kirby of the Kirby Army
Proud Supporter of Jay Solano for SC2k6
From: Ryll | Posted: 9/10/2005 11:36:16 PM | Message Detail | #211
This will be gut-wrenching, come on Tifa!
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"GSC is like the 80's. People were too stupid at the time to realize it sucks and we dont want it back." - dishwasher@smogon
From: Blaziken27 | Posted: 9/11/2005 1:22:13 AM | Message Detail | #212
Vlado, I'll be voting for her. Sonic may be popular, but FF7 is really knocking down the competition this year. Yuffie and Cid will probably be in next year.
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He hatches from an egg, can fight at birth, cooes only his name, is adorable, and has specific attacks. Is Yoshi a Pokémon? Hmm...
From: Vlado | Posted: 9/11/2005 1:27:02 AM | Message Detail | #213
I'm glad to know that. Keep the faith! It's not lost until it's over. And Tifa is certainly able to do it.
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*** Support Tifa Lockheart in the Summer Contest 2005 ***
Thanks to everyone who helped her get in!
From: laszlow | Posted: 9/11/2005 9:42:22 AM | Message Detail | #214
Bump bump bump... big ones, small ones, some as big as your head....
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First God created idiots. That was for practice. Then He created forum trolls.
From: M120T | Posted: 9/11/2005 10:36:06 AM | Message Detail | #215
Haha. Vlado pulled a whole bunch of crap out of his ass to actually make Tifa > Sonic actually sound reasonable. You really should be impartial when you write these things.
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"Disperse, loyal battle monkeys! Do my bidding and bust a cap!" - Zetta
(Select)
From: Vlado | Posted: 9/11/2005 10:53:33 AM | Message Detail | #216
Dude, what kind of a Tifa fan would I be if I predict her to lose?
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*** Support Tifa Lockheart in the Summer Contest 2005 ***
Thanks to everyone who helped her get in!
From: XxBilly2xX | Posted: 9/11/2005 10:55:47 AM | Message Detail | #217
Dude, what kind of a Tifa fan would I be if I predict her to lose?

Gotta respect that. I know I won't predict Sonic to lose, ever.
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This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:45:55 PM | Message Detail | #218
Vincent Valentine............50.59% 49446
Squall Leonhart...............49.41% 48297
TOTAL VOTES............................97743

12.47% of the brackets called this match correctly.

And after one crazy day, Vincent is able to pull out the win. It looked like it was going to be a back and forth match, but Vincent pulled away mid-day and never looked back. Only 12.47% had Vincent in the Elite 8, and that's pretty low.

Today, Sonic is easily beating Tifa. Looks like she isn't the Contest monster we thought she was....or maybe Sonic is now a force to be reckoned with.

CLOSEST PREDICTIONS

Soul - 10
Tnote - 10
Vlado - 8
Outback - 7
Inviso - 6
Ulti - 6
Moltar - 4
MasterMage - 1

Soul gets the point with his great prediction.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Sonic vs. Tifa - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (76/88)
From: Blaziken27 | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:48:47 PM | Message Detail | #219
Awww, if Tifa loses, that means Yoshi is probably doomed. Why do people never vote for the underdogs when its contestants I want to win?! :P
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He hatches from an egg, can fight at birth, cooes only his name, is adorable, and has specific attacks. Is Yoshi a Pokémon? Hmm...
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:27:16 PM | Message Detail | #220
20XX Division Round 3 - Match 56 – (1)Mega Man vs. (3)Yoshi
Flutter Kick! Flutter Kick!!!

Mega Man
Round 1 – vs. Conker (Mega Man: 76.02% - Conker: 23.98%)
Round 2 – vs. Leon (Mega Man: 64.56% - Leon: 35.44%)

Mega Man looks very bad in his match with Leon…ouch.

Yoshi
Round 1 – vs. Laharl (Yoshi: 73.66% - Laharl: 26.34%)
Round 2 – vs. Pac-Man (Yoshi: 72.83% - Pac-Man: 27.17%)

Making Ocelot look like he’ll struggle with Laharl. Silly Pac-Man

Alright, we have an unimpressive looking Mega Man vs. an impressive looking Yoshi. As much as I hate to say it, Yoshi on his best day couldn’t beat Mega Man on his worst. Last I checked, Mega Man was an elite in these Contests.

“But Moltar!” You scream, “Leon couldn’t even get 60% on Gordon Freeman, and then Mega failed to double Leon!” Well, Gordon DID have Half-Life 2 come out since the last Contest, and people DO love the snot out of that game. It’s not too farfetched to think that Gordon has gone way up, and that Leon was underestimated in his match against Mega Man. I still think Mega Man is the strong elite he is, especially after beating Conker like that. Yoshi should do well though. Snake got 43% on Mega last year, and Zero got 44% on the Blue Bomber in 2004, so it will be interesting to see where Yoshi fits in. To think, Yoshi being a near-elite! That would make my day.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mega Man will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mega Man: 60% - Yoshi: 40%



Ulti’s Analysis

To make a good writeup or not to make a good writeup, that is the question now that my hands hurt like hell from writing thank you cards yesterday with no break :(

Hmm. I feel like being lazy, so I'll just say that I think Mega Man will underperform and be done with it. Not only do I believe that Sonic will shut up all of the Tifa fans, but I also think that Mega Man is in for a surprise as well. But more on that when the time comes.

Prediction: Mega Man with 59.99%



Soul’s Analysis

Round 2 Results

Mega Man defeated Leon Kennedy: 64.56% - 35.44%

Yoshi defeated Pac-Man: 72.83% - 27.17%


Mega Man came off of a disappointing win over Leon last round. You know, the same character that couldn't break 60% on Gordon Freeman. Predictions of Mega Man winning the contest came to an abrupt halt after this. Not only was Mega Man weaker, but the now he has to heavily worry about Sonic next round. And even if he somehow manages to "upset" Sonic next round, he's basically a sitting duck against Crono the round afterward. Also, it seems as though many people believe (finally) that Mega Man should not have been adjusted last year. If his match against Link was legit, Sonic would be ahead of him by more then 1% in the X-Stats. Add in a possible Sonic boost, and well, I wouldn't want to be in Mega Man's shoes right about now.

But even before all that happens, he has to worry about defeating Yoshi! Although Yoshi has defeated two fodder to get to round 3, he still looked mildly impressive. Of course, you have to take FFF into consideration here as well. Although, I believe you can assume that Yoshi got a boost because everyone around him (ie: Nintendo characters from the Mario franchise) all got a boost.

I'm pretty positive that Mega Man should have no trouble in winning the match against Yoshi. I find it hard that Yoshi could beat Mega Man. With that said, I know it's going to be a close match as well. If Mega Man can keep Yoshi under 40%, he looks like he can defeat Sonic next round. Well, we got to wait and see I guess.

My prediction: Mega Man wins with 56.50% of the vote. Blue Blur > Blue Bomber.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Sonic vs. Tifa - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (76/88)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:27:27 PM | Message Detail | #221
Outback’s Analysis

This division was never in question from the start. I guess I'm kinda glad to have some sort of normalcy here.

Mega Man with 63.00%



Inviso’s Analysis

Mega Man is actually one of the four characters people mainly believe will win the tournament, yet in the past two rounds, he’s performed rather badly. Against Conker, he performed weakly, a little lower than Crono…but Mega Man always over performs in round 1 and then does badly later. And this over performance is Mega Man’s weakest yet. And then, in round 2, he goes on to fail at doubling a character that did rather poorly against Gordon Freeman. Yoshi on the other side of the division has blown out two characters thus far, the only non-noble niner to do so. He has actually shown a good example of a Nintendo boost. He’ll definitely be giving Mega Man a run for his money, but I think the Blue Bomber will win this match, even if it is close when he does so. Too bad I’ve disliked every character in this division besides Leon and Gordon, who are already eliminated.

My Bracket: Mega Man
My Vote: Mega Man
My Prediction: Mega Man with 54.19%



Tnote’s Analysis

Mega Man is done overperforming, as the 2nd round is over. He egged it up against Zero last year, and will probably do the same this year. Yoshi thrashed Pac Man like Luigi said he would, but like Bowser said he couldn't. Yoshi should be thrilled if he can crack 45%, but I do not expect the Nintendo boost to be that prominent.

Pick: Mega Man with 58.27%



Vlado’s Analysis

Eh... Well, some think that Yoshi can win here, thanks to the huge Nintendo increase, but please... This is Mega Man, it's not some random midcarder. Yoshi is very well liked among the Nintendo characters on
GameFAQs, but I doubt it will be enough to threaten the Blue Bomber. Now, if it were Ganon, it could have been possible. Mega Man didn't impress against Leon, but what says Leon isn't strong? After all, he's the star of a game that was Gamecube-exclusive so far. With the Nintendo increase, it makes sense that he'd be stronger than one would initially think.

Yoshi beat Laharl and then Pac-Man, breaking 70% on both, but not impressing in either of the matches. This division is so weak it makes me sick... I'm still bitter than Ocelot lost to someone like Pac-Man. What the hell happened there! X-Stats fail. I'm absolutely sure that Ocelot would've done better on Yoshi than Pac-Man did. But whatever. Nintendo or not, Yoshi can't beat Rockman. He's not Master Chief, after all.

Predcited percentage: Mega Man with 56.19%

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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Sonic vs. Tifa - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (76/88)
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/11/2005 8:46:09 PM | Message Detail | #222
Bump.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 9/11/2005 9:52:04 PM | Message Detail | #223
I don't know about all this Megaman hate. I can see Leon being quite strong and Gordon increasing alot. We need to see Gordon go up against a contest vet to see where he lies after HL-2.
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Micheal Flatley and Hellboy"-trancer1 Officially out of the running SC2k5(Magus..)
From: Blaziken27 | Posted: 9/11/2005 10:07:09 PM | Message Detail | #224
Awww, c'mon, give Yoshi a chance, people! The dinosaur has always done very well in these contests, and he's probably the most loved of all Mario characters. Mega Man is in for the struggle of his life against his first serious competitor.

But like Tifa, the picture advantage is against Yoshi. I'm still pulling for him, though.
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He hatches from an egg, can fight at birth, cooes only his name, is adorable, and has specific attacks. Is Yoshi a Pokémon? Hmm...
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/11/2005 10:08:08 PM | Message Detail | #225
Yoshi's not winning, but if he breaks 40%, that'll be enough for me.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Sonic vs. Tifa - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (76/88)
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/11/2005 10:17:15 PM | Message Detail | #226
Yoshi is being overrated like crazy on the board right now because he defeated 2 characters that are fodder.

He doesn't stand a chance at defeating Mega Man. I'm hoping that he can keep it around 45%, but I'm starting to seriously doubt he can even break 40%.

Let's just hope he got a good boost like the others.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Subcontinental | Posted: 9/11/2005 10:20:35 PM | Message Detail | #227
I just want Mega Man to look so bad that Sonic will be able to dominate him.
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Phantasy Star Online taken to the next level:
http://s12.invisionfree.com/PSOGC/index.php
From: laszlow | Posted: 9/12/2005 5:38:00 AM | Message Detail | #228
Well, Mega Man is one of my favorite game series ever, so I admit that I have him losing in the Final Four. You Got Napalm Bomb!
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First God created idiots. That was for practice. Then He created forum trolls.
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 9/12/2005 5:48:21 AM | Message Detail | #229
Heh, Megaman looking pretty good so far. If he keeps this up, he might be beating Snoic.
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Micheal Flatley and Hellboy"-trancer1 Officially out of the running SC2k5(Magus..)
From: a12340001 | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:21:33 AM | Message Detail | #230
Might end up beating Sonic? Mega Man has -always- been stronger than Sonic.
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:56:44 AM | Message Detail | #231
But have you seen all the Sonic>Megaman posts on Board 8 lately? IMO, Blue Bomber>>>>>>>>>>>>>Blue Blur. This also shows that Gordon is WAY stronger then fodder which is something else I suspected all along. I expected him to whip Leon not knowing Leon was in RE4 (I was going by RE2).
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Micheal Flatley and Hellboy"-trancer1 Officially out of the running SC2k5(Magus..)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:59:36 AM | Message Detail | #232
Looks like Soul has this one wrapped up.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: laszlow | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:16:24 PM | Message Detail | #233
Hm, Outback's the only one with a pick above 60 for Mega Man. If this keeps up, he might even break 70!

Ok, that's pretty doubtful, but still, es esperanto.
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First God created idiots. That was for practice. Then He created forum trolls.
From: XxBilly2xX | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:18:03 PM | Message Detail | #234
OMG repost?!?

Yoshi is being overrated like crazy on the board right now because he defeated 2 characters that are fodder.

He doesn't stand a chance at defeating Mega Man. I'm hoping that he can keep it around 45%, but I'm starting to seriously doubt he can even break 40%.

Let's just hope he got a good boost like the others.


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This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/12/2005 4:35:09 PM | Message Detail | #235
Sonic the Hedgehog...................56.4% 59703
Tifa Lockheart............................43.6% 46155
TOTAL VOTES...................................105858

48.65% of the brackets called this match correctly.

Nice vote totals there. Sonic easily disposes of Tifa. Not much else to say here.

Today, Mega Man is crushing Yoshi, and boy does it stink. Mega is looking excellent right now, but Leon > Yoshi? SFF, perhaps?

CLOSEST PREDICTIONS

Soul - 10
Tnote - 10
Outback - 8
Vlado - 8
Inviso - 6
Ulti - 6
Moltar - 4
MasterMage - 1

Nice pick by Outback. The point is his.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Mega Man vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Yoshi (80/92)
From: Blaziken27 | Posted: 9/12/2005 5:21:24 PM | Message Detail | #236
Me and my big, jinx causing posts. What did Yoshi ever do to deserve this humiliation? Now everyone's going to be 'Yosh1 suxs 'caz megaMaN doubled2 him, so hahahahaahahaahhaha yOsh fanboys yur stoopid!'

*sighs* The underdogs just never get a chance here, and you get made fun of for supporting them.
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He hatches from an egg, can fight at birth, cooes only his name, is adorable, and has specific attacks. Is Yoshi a Pokémon? Hmm...
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/12/2005 5:23:08 PM | Message Detail | #237
Yeah, poor Yoshi.

And holy crap, these Mario/Samus write-ups are huge. I don't have Ulti's yet, so I can't post them.

I just hope you like to read. >.>
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Mega Man vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Yoshi (80/92)
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/12/2005 5:38:57 PM | Message Detail | #238
Waits anxiously...
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 88/96, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: goku z | Posted: 9/12/2005 5:55:44 PM | Message Detail | #239
Elite Eight- Match 57 – (1)Mario vs. (1) Samus Aran

The Lowdown on Mario
Mario did about as expected in Round 1, and did pretty well in Round 2, where he SFF'd Ness into the ground. Mario proceded to beat the living hell out of Zero, making people cry "Mario for the win!", but is this support really warranted? I say yes, but we shall see tomorrow.

The Lowdown on Samus Aran
Samus Aran started the contest off well - pulling 87% is impressive, anyway you look at it. Samus then preceded to stomp a mud-hole into the overrated (stats wise, that is) Frog, with 70% of the vote. Samus was then expected to get at least mild SFF on Ganondorf, but failed to do so, taking it with 60%. Samus does appear to be the strongest character in the contest by a small margin...we shall see if she can stand up to the icon.

The Match
These two are very close, in my opinion. If they went head -to-head, without any SFF, then I believe Samus Aran would take the match...perhaps 52-48. However; we are talking about the icon, Mr. Nintendo, The Italian Stallion, Mario himself. I am of the belief that Mario will manage to pull a minor amount of SFF on Ms. Aran, and he will march on to contest victory, on his way to an uncallable match with the One Winged Angel.

His Bracket Says: Mario wins.
Prediction: Mario defeats Samus Aran, 53.59% to 46.41%.
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Summer Contest 2005 Winner: Mario
Mario will SFF Samus, and pull it out against Crono.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/12/2005 7:44:58 PM | Message Detail | #240
I was going to write up something long, but Monday Night Football is about to begin and I can't miss a good joke.

Ulti's Analysis

From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:32:00 PM | Message Detail | #478
Ulti's Analysis: I don't care what the X-Stats say, I just can't see Mario losing to Samus. Mario with 51.59%


Prediction: Mario with 51.59%

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/12/2005 7:46:42 PM | Message Detail | #241
Dude, I get half your point if I win
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 88/96, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:02:36 PM | Message Detail | #242
Mushroom/Zebes Division Round 4 - Match 57 – (1)Mario vs. (1)Samus

Mario - Warped down the wrong pipe this time.
Round 1 – vs. Joanna Dark (Mario: 80.90% - Joanna: 19.10%)
Round 2 – vs. Ness (Mario: 82.80% - Ness: 17.20%)
Round 3 – vs. Zero (Mario: 62.86% - Zero: 37.14%)

Ouch, what was Zero fighting for? He gets owned by Mario.

Samus - She’s going to need every upgrade possible in this fight.
Round 1 – vs. Ryu H. (Samus: 87.32% - Yuri: 12.68%)
Round 2 – vs. Frog (Samus: 70.05% - Frog: 29.95%)
Round 3 – vs. Ganondorf (Samus: 59.66% - Ganon: 40.34%)

Samus does decent against Ganondorf…better than Seph did.

Well, it’s finally here. This match will either make, or break most brackets. The winner of this match here, has the best chance of going on and winning the Contest, kind of like Link/Cloud back in 2003. On one side, we have the legend, the icon, Mr. Nintendo, Mario! On the other side, we have the badass, the bounty hunter, Mrs. Nintendo, Samus! Fasten your seat-belts readers, this is going to be one hell of a ride!

Mario and Samus are Contest vets. Both have been around since 2002. Back then, Mario was under-performing against Servbot and Morrigan, SFFing Donkey Kong, and managing to somehow beat Cloud and Crono before losing to Link 62-38. Samus in 2002 had a much less exciting path. She made Ken Masters look great, beat Ryu easily, passed Sonic by a hair, and then lost to Sephiroth. Samus still ended up ranking higher than Mario 41.07% to 37.47%.

2003 rolled around and both were back to lay more carnage. Mario stomped Olimar, got 55% on Shadow, and then barely edged past Crono again. He then went on to get flattened by Sephiroth. Samus destroyed Issac and KOS-MOS, got 58% on Squall, then lost to Link 62-38. This year, Mario barely outranked Samus 38.18%-37.94%

Now let’s move to 2004. Mario crushed JC Denton, SFFed Bowser, then lost to Crono 53-47. Samus out-lasted Mario by far. She obliterated Lara and Fisher so badly, people were thinking she could take down Cloud and Link. She then got 66% on Sora, 57.5% on Sonic, and then lost to Cloud in a 59-41 match. Samus easily beat Mario in the rankings 42.36% to 37.28%

Alright, now that we’ve looked at their history, we can see some things. Samus has outranked Mario twice, while Mario has beaten Samus only once. The one time Mario won was close too, while Samus easily beat Mario. Mario also looks to remain static over the three years, while Samus went down in 2003, then back up in 2004. Also, both of them have faced all the members of Clinkeroth, so let’s look at that.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=999 – Seph/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1363 – Seph/Mario

Seph gets 52% on Samus in 2002, and 62% on Mario in 2003. Well, with the Square boost in 2003, it’s easier to see why Mario did so poorly, but if a rematch was done today, I would not only put Mario over Seph, but also Samus.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1361 – Link/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1002 –Link/Mario

Link gets 38% on both Mario (2002) and Samus (2003). Well, Mario did slightly better, but they still both pot up near equal performances on Link.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1780 – Cloud/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=996 – Cloud/Mario

Mario…actually beat Cloud, while Samus got 41% on Cloud. I can say with 100% confidence that Mario would not beat Cloud today. He might be able to break 40% though.

Alright, after a huge history lesson, time to get focused on this year, 2005. Before, Samus has looked better than Mario for the most part, but is that all going to change this year?
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:02:55 PM | Message Detail | #243
Mario has already taken down Joanna, SFFed Ness to the bottom of the barrel, and really impressed against Zero. Samus had the biggest blow-out of the Contest against Yuri, showed us that Frog was very weak by getting 70% on him, and showing to us that large amounts of SFF doesn’t occur when two big Nintendo names go head to head when she got 60% on Ganondorf. They both have been looking great so far, but if I had to give the edge to someone, I’d give it to Mario by an inch. He’s done nothing but impress us, and 63% on Zero is very shocking.

Mario also has the brackets on his side. Over 80% have him in the Elite 8, while less than 50% have Samus here. Mario is the favorite by the casuals to win, while Samus is the board favorite. It’s going to be close here, guys. We’ve already seen many times that there isn’t much, if any, SFF in matches between stronger Nintendo characters, meaning Samus wins alone based on pure strength. Mario supporters though, have a nice argument on their side. Will a majority of the voters vote Mario, who is basically the mascot of Nintendo, over Samus, who rests on the second tier in the Nintendo hierarchy?

Since this is my analysis, I’ll tell you what I think. Mario and Samus won’t get any SFF on each other. They could, but it won’t be huge either way. I think Samus will win on pure strength alone. Link couldn’t get SFF on either of them, so it’s doubtful that either would get it on the other. However, if SFF does play a role here, then it would most likely go to Mario. This is a match for the ages, folks. Enjoy it while you can.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Samus will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mario: 49% - Samus: 51%



Inviso’s Analysis

Well, this is THE MATCH of the contest. It is highly speculated that whomever wins this match will win the whole tournament, and then go on to give Sephiroth a good fight. On the one hand, we have Mario. He’s the king of gaming, he’s Nintendo’s mascot, and he has pumped out one of the biggest collections of games in a variety of genres. Round one, he blew out Joanna Dark. Round 2, he SFF blew out Ness. And Round 3, he physically owned Zero, after everyone had said Zero was on the verge of breaking the noble nine. Mario, like seemingly every other Nintendo character, has had a huge boost this year, and it’s served him well in eliminating two cases of fodder, and one pretty damn powerful character.

On the other side of this match, we have Samus Aran, the star of one of Nintendo’s biggest series, Metroid, and also one of the stronger characters in this contest. She made final 4 last year and got 41% on Cloud, a very impressive feat, and has gotten equal numbers as Mario has on Link. This year, she started things off by blowing out Kyle Bowen’s favorite character, aka fodder. She went on the next round to get 70% on a character that’d done exceptionally well against Solid Snake in 2004, but seemed to be on a decline like the rest of the characters from his game. And in round 3, she nearly broke 60% against Ganondorf, the one character of the Zero/Magus/Ganondorf trio that has proven his strength as a top tier character. That is a powerful performance for Samus, given that in that match, there was most likely little SFF, or reverse SFF, due to Zelda being so much more powerful than Metroid.

This match truly is up in the air. Everything thus far in this contest has been so unpredictable. One minute, you think a character has everything locked up, and the next minute, Knuckles is advancing to round 2 for the fourth year in a row. A lot of this talk about Nintendo boost was shaken when Yoshi performed worse against Megaman than Leon Kennedy did, making Gordon Freeman look good in the process. So, I’m gonna go with my bracket on this one. I’m probably gonna be wrong, but we’ll see.

My Bracket: Samus Aran
My Vote: Samus Aran
My Prediction: Samus Aran with 52.31%
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:03:55 PM | Message Detail | #244
Soul’s Analysis

Super Sexy Round 3 Results

Mario thrashed Zero: 62.86% - 37.14%

Samus ripped Ganondorf to threads: 59.66% - 40.34%


OMG MATCH OF THE CONTEST!

Yes folks, that's right. I believe that this match decides who the winner will be for this contest. I'm sure many other people have come to this conclusion as well. If Samus proves to be the second strongest Nintendo mascot in this contest and defeats Mario, she'll definitely take out Sonic/Crono. But, if Mario manages to beat Samus, he'll get one of two possible legendary matches in the finals with Sonic or Crono.

Looking at the last match for each character, it's safe to assume that Mario looks a hell of a lot better then Samus right now. Last year, Zero and Ganondorf were about even. Of course, Ganondorf raised a percent or two during the Spring, and probably during this year as well. But I don't believe it was anything too high. Two percent at the most. Still, that gives Mario a little bit of an edge.

There is 3 groups of people who will vote in this match. The first group of people Nintendo fans. Who do you think those Nintendo fans will vote for? You have a character, Samus, that have been in a few awesome games, and a character, Mario, being the God of videogame characters. This will be another case of father Vs. son. Well, fat italian father Vs. bounty hunter daughter. Either way, I still think that father (Mario) will still come out on top in that department.

The next people to vote will be the Nintendo haters. Obviously, they will vote for Samus. Mario basically is Nintendo, so if you dislike the company, you probably won't vote for the company's mascot Mario. Samus will get most of her votes from here, I believe.

The last group is the big one. The group of people who basically couldn't care less about Nintendo, but vote on other different factors. The old-school voters will give a lot of votes to Mario, but a few of them will vote for Samus as well because of her games in the NES/SNES era. The people who couldn't care less will probably vote based on the picture alone. Since the picture is not up yet, I don't know who will get these votes. I'm going to guess Samus, since I believe she looks better. Although, if it is a sprite round, Mario will win these voters tremendously. The die-hard fans will vote for whoever they want to. The Square fans will probably be split as well.

I believe Mario will get the day vote, while Samus gets the two night votes. The after-school vote will probably go to Mario. The board vote will probably be split, although Mario will come out on top I believe.

Basically, this match looks it could go either way. Duh, that's obvious. It wouldn't be the match of the contest if it was supposed to be a blow-out. It has a lot on the line as well, since the winner will definitely defeat Snake/Bowser and will most likely defeat Crono/Sonic/Mega Man.

I'm choosing Mario to win this one. Why? I believe in my heart that the people on GameFAQs will choose Samus over Mario as their more popular character. Sure, they can have Link/Cloud/Seph, since those three are involved in the top 2 games of all time on this site, but come on. I find it hard to believe that actually think that Samus is more popular then Mario...

Before I go on a rant, I got to say that if I choose Samus here and Mario wins, I will never let myself forget about it. I'm still kicking myself over choosing Magus over the infinitely cooler Knuckles. Although I have Samus in my bracket, I have Mario in my heart. I'm not going to do the same mistake. If I'm wrong and Samus wins, at least I went down picking my favorite character. If I get the point, I'll be very happy :)

My prediction: Mario wins with 52.11% of the vote. It'sa me, MARIO FTW!
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:04:33 PM | Message Detail | #245
Outback’s Analysis

Before this contest I was pretty adamantly in favor of Samus to win this match - and for that matter the whole tournament. That was mainly because I felt that Samus was significantly stronger than Mario; or at least strong enough that if there was Mario/Samus SFF (which I didn't think there would be, and, for that matter, I still don't), that it wouldn't be enough to affect the outcome.

However, Mario's latest matches, especially his match against Zero, have shown that Mario has risen from the "disappointment" that was his 2k4 performance. A near doubling of Zero is impressive, especially considering that Zero was very, very close to Snake, one of the elites of this contest, last year. Percentage-wise, Samus has been rather impressive. Scoring over 85% on anybody is an accomplishment, especially when said score comes without the presence of SFF. However, Samus has failed rather miserably when it comes to drawing votes. Her matches have not been able to draw the crowds that Mario's have. This match is the championship match for all intents and purposes, right here, and the only way Samus can pull it out is if the voters that are drawn by Mario vote for Samus, and I just don't see that happening.

Mario with 54.11%



Tnote’s Analysis

And with the exception of Vincent (and the addition of Zero and/or Ganon), we are down to the eight strongest combatants in the field. According to many, the two strongest will do battle tomorrow, in a match that could honestly go 60/40 either way. If there is no SFF whatsoever, Samus has no problems defeating Mario. If Mario pwns Samus like he has so many other Nintendo characters, she has no shot. I doubt the match will reach 60% for either character, but if it does, it will certainly be Mario. Samus was unable to SFF Ganon, a gentleman whom she has shared numerous consoles, and the super popular SSB:M with. Link SFFed Mega Man, who SFFed Yoshi, none of whom had a single game together.

Luigi was then SFFed by Yoshi, who in turn got SFFed by Bowser, who also SFFed Ness, whom Mario SFFed both of. Confused? Me too. The moral of the story is that next to Link himself, nobody hops on the SFF train more than the characters from Mario brothers. 24 hours from poll's opening, I full expect to see my bracket still alive and kicking, and most of Board 8 to be completely distraught by the 2nd most overhyped match ever. Expect FFVII/OoT part II tomorrow folks.

Pick: Mario with 55.83%
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:04:55 PM | Message Detail | #246
Vlado’s Analysis

This match had a lot of potential, but all that has happened so far seems to point in one direction - Mario will win. Samus was considered the favourite by many, mostly the X-Stats followers, before the contest, but, we saw well that X-Stats mean NOTHING this year. Samus would probably defeat each other character in the contest, save for probably Crono, but she has to face Mario at this stage, and this is the end of the road for her. Previous results in this or other contests don't matter. This is an all-Nintendo battle, and Link is the only one who can beat Mario in something like this.

Basically, among the hardcore Nintendo fanbase, Mario will dominate. He'll probably get 2/3 of those votes. We know well that the fans of Mario games are much more than the Metroid fans, too. People who like both will be more inclined to vote Mario, since he's the Nintendo mascot and pretty much the face of their favourite company. Samus can only win the votes of the non- or anti-Nintendo fans, who are more likely to anti-vote Mario, and the clueless voters, who will vote based on "WHOAMG ROBOT!!111". Yes, those exist, too.

Samus is also the "cooler" and "less kiddy" character. Well, guess what. So was Zero. That result proved that those votes will not make much of a difference. Mario's owning of Zero doesn't prove much about this particular battle, but it sure proved that no one other than Samus could possibly stop him on his way to the battle with Sephiroth. Basically, the winner of this match will win the regular tournament. I'm almost certain of that, the only possible exception could be if Samus won here and faced Crono. Either way, with the way things are looking, I think Mario will take the tournament with ease.

Predcited percentage: Mario with 52.37%.
From: edouble24 | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:16:06 PM | Message Detail | #247
Edouble's Analysis

Mario is better so he will win. Mario with 53.24
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Winner of the Spring Contest 2004-Castlevania SOTN
Winner of the Summer Contest 2002,2003,2004-Alucard
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:31:08 PM | Message Detail | #248
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:31:55 PM | Message Detail | #249
Yay for the Mario support. It's a shame that 90% of the top 50 will be knocked out for good after Mario whips Samus.

*eagerly awaits the board reaction to the inevitable Mario victory*
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Micheal Flatley and Hellboy"-trancer1 Officially out of the running SC2k5(Magus..)
From: DBZFIGHTERS | Posted: 9/13/2005 1:12:59 AM | Message Detail | #250
Three years of being anti-voted seems to have vanished for Mario.

I got Samus winning, but Mario will destroy her.

I just hope he beats Crono by even more.

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Die hard Cubs, Pistons, Patriot and Maple Leaf fan
Owl Squad Member ( ºvº( ºvº )ºvº ) O RLY?
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